Here is your April Review Video…Good News, this one is even shorter and to the point (thanks for the suggestions..haha) Next up, how to figure out how to get a more flattering picture on the initial screen.
Hope you enjoy the April 2013 J.K. Financial, Inc. John Kvale Capital Market Video Review
Our first point from April is Interest rates…..yikes…but a better finish.
We watch interest rates as a sign for the possibility of growth and or a slow down. GENERALLY, but not always a lower rate tends to proceed slowdowns. Rates on the 10 year fell to well below 1.70% signaling a slow down or an increase in fear. Early in May rates have found their footing and are moving back to less of a slowdown signaling level.
Taxes and Expenses from the Congressional Budge Office
Given April 15th is personal tax day and we have mentioned that it was a hard tax season this year as many/most seemed to be paying more, we dug this chart from the Congressional Budget Office forecast for 2013 and sure enough, they are expecting a much larger increase as well. Good forecasting on their part and unfortunately lighter pocket books on our part. We sure wish those lines would cross..meaning a balanced budget.
Boston Marathon a tragic event
In a very crazy moment of a positive event gone south, the explosions of the Boston Marathon mark a spot in our April review. We wish all those that were injured a speedy recovery and we are happy for a quick capture.
That’s it for April. Hello May, hopefully you will not pass us so quickly.
Have a Great Day!
John Kvale
214-706-4300
8222 Douglas Ave # 590 Dallas, TX 75225
Donald Capone
John Kvale CFA, CFP
May 2013 Summary of Eventful Capital Market and Economic Items: John Kvale of J.K. Financial, Inc. (Video)
Goodbye May 2013, we wanted to hit a few of the high points! The year is not slowing down so far, but with the official entrance into the summer doldrums we expect slower motion for a while.
Here is our May 2013 Capital Market and Economic summary video, by John Kvale
The 10 Year Treasury
Interest Rates from high above on a longer term do not look to bad…actually it looks very good. As a general rule, lower rates are helpful to valuations, interest costs along with margins and long-term confidence.
10 Year Yield 1960 to Current
Yikes ! When we look at a shorter term chart, the story may be changing as rates have begun to rise somewhat faster than many may have expected. Rising rates act as a mild headwind unless they rise too fast. We will keep our eyes peeled on this matter.
10 Year Yield YTD 2013
Ben Bernanke’s Punch Bowl AKA QE Taper…not Tipper
If you are one that likes to debate…step right up. The debate is on, and it is anyone’s guess when the Fed will slow the gigantic $85 billion monthly purchases of fixed securities. For the record, the Fed has been mashing on the gas long enough now that they actually purchase more than $85 billion monthly, as prior purchased securities are maturing and have to be re-invested.
This debate is a major contributor to our prior subject, interest rates. IF and WHEN the Fed really let’s off the gas pedal, the fear is what rates will actually do….or more over, how fast and how far they will rise. Buckle up and let’s all hold on, if the Fed draws a line in the sand we may begin to see who has been swimming with no swim trunks…..not us of course!
Continued enthusiasm….Party like it’s 1999
The most surprising continued element happening this year is the huge rise in market valuations given the slow growth that is being recorded. Do not get us wrong…things are getting better in MANY aspects of the economy, but are they
REALLY getting THAT MUCH better? We do not think so, given the data we have at this time. Current market growth was 3% over the last quarter…awesome that is great…but a 10% plus move in the US capital markets is a bit extreme…in our opinion.
Have a Great Day!
John Kvale
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590 Dallas, TX 75225Share this:
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Posted in A Look Back and The Week Ahead, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Video
Tagged Interest Rates, MBS Purchases, QE, QE Taper, Taper, Video