Zigg Drops by with a Mcteer Question and a Few Grounding Thoughts

Posted on April 27, 2012 by | Comments Off

Zigg, making a pilgrimage from his very crowded small island, on his way to the store for supplies as many of his new fair weather friends are cramping his style and eating his food, stopped by last night to see the family and say hello. He had heard about the McTeer event and added a nice question of his own, which we will certainly ask Mr. McTeer.

For those not familiar with Zigg, he is our mythical friend who is a contrarian. He Ziggs when others Zagg, usually taking an uncomfortable position at any given time. His thoughts are always helpful in keeping things in perspective.

In addition to the McTeer question he shared the following thoughts:

  • This is an Election Year, see (Research Paper) for history
  • Tax cliff may come in the form of possible new taxes
  • Little Brother Country Issues i.e. EU
  • A years worth of market returns already

Zigg was not being negative as he never takes a harsh stance, however he did warn of becoming too optimistic and letting our guards down.

Thanks Zigg, we have missed you and glad you dropped in. It’s funny to see him move from the only positive person, to being a bit more conservative in his views, once again almost alone in voice.

Have a Great Day and a Super Weekend!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in Economy, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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What are the historical odds for an Incumbent President to be Re-Elected? …..About 70%!

Posted on April 25, 2012 by | Comments Off

Given our surprise findings (76 Years of Capital Markets…) on pre- election year capital market research, which continued in form in 2011, we set off on another adventure.

In our own, overly analytical way, we wanted to find out what the historical chances for an incumbent President to be re-elected, using the history of the United States as our forecast mechanism.

Here are the facts, many of which you may not remember from your American History Classes:

  • There have been 56 elections in the United States Prior to the November 2012 elections
  • In total there were 25 chances for an incumbent to be re-elected. (Death, and an elective no second try, are the main reasons for not having a second term)
  • In total only 8 out of 25 incumbent presidents were ousted for a 68% pass rate, including FDR’s near two decade run
  • Modern day (aligning with our prior research of 76 years) there were 11 chances for an incumbent to be re-elected
  •  In Modern day times, only Hoover, Carter and Bush Sr were willing to go a second, but “one time” presidents, making for a 73% chance pass rate

From our perch, whether the full enchilada history of the US, or the “Modern Day” incumbent president, we call it a 70% historical chance of being re-elected!

So there you have it, the facts are what they are. As you know we are not allowed to have comments due to the compliance issues. Knowing this might be an interesting issue, we are once happy for compliance!

Have a Great Day!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, World Political

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Robert McTeer Event Reminder (Saturday April 28th, 2 pm) and Questions From Those Unable to Attend

Posted on April 20, 2012 by | Comments Off

Another reason we are so happy to work for all of you, our clients!  Many of you who are unable to attend our premier private client event (we will miss you) have sent questions for us to ask Mr. McTeer.

We thought this was such a great idea, we wanted to offer it to everyone. So, if you have a question, please email it to cathy@jkfinancialinc.com and we will either ask Mr. McTeer at the event, or since we have had many questions, we are sending him questions prior to the event as well.

Great work to everyone and thanks for sharing your ideas and concerns ! We will return the favor by sharing Mr. McTeer’s responses back with you in this post and our Newsletters.

As a reminder the event is Saturday, April 28th 2 pm at the Park Cities Hilton, and will last approximately 1-2 hours.  Again, due to the inaugural nature of this event for us, we are asking for a firm RSVP to cathy@jkfinancialinc.com by Monday, April 23, 2012 if you have not done so already.

Have a Great Day and a Super Weekend !

JK

www.jkfinancialinc.com

214-706-4300

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Posted in Clients/Clients Only

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Donald W. Capone III CFA… AKA “The Brain” Does it Again, In Nationwide News

Posted on April 19, 2012 by | Comments Off

Another reason we all call him the Brain !

Donald W. Capone III, in the news.

Just few minutes ago, this press release from Business Wire went out nationwide.

Here are Donald’s comments:

 ”thinkpipes is much more than a trading platform and has truly become one of the most powerful tools that we leverage day-to-day,” said Donald Capone, CFA, portfolio manager at JK Financial, Inc. “If it’s being traded on the market, I no longer have to use multiple sources for historical data or quotes. It’s all right there at your fingertips in thinkpipes.”

What you don’t see is the fact that there are more than four thousand RIA’s that use TDA’s platform. When the powers of TDA were asked about utilization of the new, most technical, trading platform, (Thinkpipes) TDA went directly to Donald as a first choice to visit with due to his knowledgable of Thinkpipes.

Congrats again Donald and thanks for making such a great impression, keep up the great work!

Have a Super Day.

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in Clients/Clients Only, Donald Capone, In The News, Personal

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Watching Spain for Possible Pain, A 4 am Alarm Clock CST

Posted on April 18, 2012 by | Comments Off

Often times market conclusions are drawn, if for no other reason, just to have an explanation. The thinking goes, capital markets are doing this, so there must be a reason.

The recent movements and concerns of Spain do not fall in this category. Spain, unlike Greece is a larger and a more important participant of the EU.  It’s faltering would have major impact. As such, as Spain’s bond yield and CDS (insurance on the credit quality) have risen, capital markets have taken notice.

This chart from Bloomberg shows the Spanish general government 10 year bond yield and the SPY (S&P 500).

As the orange line (Spanish debt yields),  rise above 6% (a pseudo threshold level), market participants have, and are, taking notice. At 4 AM Thursday  (4-19-12) a large new debt auction will transpire in Spain. The demand of this auction will be interesting and will give us, as well as other market participants, a good read of confidence moving forward.  (Earlier this week, similar auctions went well.)

I will try not to wake the rest of the Kvale family!

We will update you with any surprises.

Have a Great Day!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, World Political

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Our 5 Findings From 2011 Personal Tax Filing Season

Posted on April 17, 2012 by | Comments Off

Congratulations, it’s almost over ! The official end of regular tax season transpires in just a few hours, and if you are not completely finished yet, click here to see our last post for the forms you may need to file an extension.

Before the information gets cold and thoughts move on to spring, fun, pools and sun, we wanted to give you a few high points we found interesting this season.

  1. AMT (Alternative Minimum Tax) reared its ugly head more frequently this season.
  2. The new tax basis form did not disappoint, and as such there were delays, confusion and frequent redo’s. (Form 8949 Box A, B, C)
  3. Most returns had more documents and greater length, due somewhat to the new tax basis, never the less contributing to bits of confusion as times.
  4. Wash Sales made several cameo appearances, due to market movement, and reporting issues.
  5. It was a stressful season, unlike any for many years before. Through our communication with individuals, professionals, institutions and reporting agencies, IT WAS MORE STRESSFUL, so do not be frustrated if you felt the same !

Bottom line, if you felt a bit more frustration this year, you were not alone. It was rough from all angles.

The good news…It’s almost over !

Have a Great Day!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in Tax Related

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Not Finished with Your Taxes? Meet IRS Form 4868, Automatic Six Month Extension

Posted on April 16, 2012 by | Comments Off

It’s ok, and there is nothing to be ashamed of if you didn’t finish your taxes!

Tuesday, April 17th, 2012 is the official deadline for regular tax filing. If you have not completed your taxes for whatever reason, meet IRS Form 4868.

By simply downloading this form and filing in the one small area, you will be granted an automatic six month extension, no questions asked. Do remember that if you owe taxes and you do not send in enough funds to cover your shortfall, you may be subject to penalties.

This tax season has been the toughest for us in the last 10 years. The new tax basis rules and adjustments have made for a confusing season, and we are not even CPA’s!

So if you ended up running out of time, be sure to send in Form 4868 along with any possible shortage in taxes you may owe. Now if we are up against the wall again in six months, then we have an issue, but that is a full six months away. Just because we have six extra months, does not mean we have to use all six months.

Happy Tax Filing Eve Day, and start to another great week!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in Investing/Financial Planning, Tax Related

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