Tag Archives: Greece

The Week that was…EU, Markets, JK Technology Blackout and Podcast Update

Posted on July 27, 2012 by | Comments Off

After a great week, tomorrow brings another fun summer weekend, we hope you had a fun week as well, and have been able to stay cool, somewhere. With internal and external items occurring this week, we thought it fun to take a look from a macro and somewhat humorous viewpoint.

Greece, and more importantly Spain, have recently taken center stage on the fear front of the EU situation. One week ago today, Spain’s third largest province, Valencia, (think Houston comparison in the US) called in a life line and requested government help as they ran out of funds.

As expected capital markets have cooled as earnings have been good, but given the EU situation and summer doldrums, wide, emotional swings, are expected and we were not let down. We still feel those with a negative posture have the best seat in the house currently.

JK Fin Closet

The client named  J.K. Financial, Inc – Technology Black Out was not to be. With a super high-speed confirmed connection sitting in our closet (see picture), but not connected, the official switchover is delayed until next week due to several absent members of our technology team. We do have two of our six planned HD TV’s working and wires hanging from the ceiling to prove it.  The new temporary numbered VOIP phone is working well, although it has not been stressed tested yet.  It’s all good, as without the adventure we would not have any advancements, not to mention humor in our lives.The promised podcast offering for those interested continues, unfortunately in incubation form, as we have several podcasts complete, but as of yet have not been able to achieve the quality presentation we desire. One technology conquest at a time please….

Have a Great, Safe, and Fun Weekend!

JK

214-706-4300  www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in John Kvale, Market Comments, Personal

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Greek Relief deafened by the Pain in Spain

Posted on June 18, 2012 by | Comments Off

The weekend elections in Greece provided for the best possible results for Greece to stay in the Euro, (some candidates were adamant that an immediate break was necessary) and while our Asian market friends applauded in relief, the good feeling was gone before the rest of the world could wake.

Spain 10 year government bond yields have once again jumped over 7%, a so-called threshold rate for ongoing operations by a government. We have a detailed analysis on this in our upcoming Newsletter, currently under production but in the interim have included this chart from Bloomberg.

As a follow up from our prior post the PGA’s US Open garnered an american as the winner, but in true small world fashion, the leaderboard was stacked with half of the top 10 players from International locations.

For those curious, our char broiled out-of-state family destination is just fine, however there is a VERY strong contingency of ongoing firefighters, who at present have 60% of the fires under control, all of which are well north of our location.

Have a Great Day!

JK

214-706-4300   www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in John Kvale, Market Comments, Personal, World Political

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The US Open and Greece, Huh? …..our Travel Plans

Posted on June 15, 2012 by | Comments Off

With a weekend (6-17-12) of important elections across the pond in Greece and neighboring countries Spain and Italy fighting for a reasonable government bond rates, (Spain currently nearing the terrible 7% rate) we draw an unlikely comparison to the US Open Golf championship, which is also happening this weekend, and the global events of late.

How small is the world these days?

Taking a look here at the US Golf world rankings for this weeks US Open will reveal a few interesting, small world facts:

  1. The top 3 world golfers are UK, not US
  2. Only 6 of the top 10 are US
  3. Only 11 of the top 20 are US
  4. Regarding the US Open championship players in 2012, 10% are Asian
  5. Only 3 United States residents of the last 10 US Open Championships

With the world being such a smaller place we are all co-dependant and thereby susceptible to each other’s illness.

Along with a Greek election, the FOMC will make an announcement next week. We think more “Cow Bell” stimulus is unlikely, although Janet Yellen’s June 6, 2012 speech last week gave us less confidence in our thinking.

Before getting too heavy heading into your weekend, a quote we often repeat to ourself comes to mind “It is never as good as you think, OR as bad, just somewhere in between.”

Travel Plans

Today Donald spends day 3 of 5 in Las Vegas at our favorite institutional research conference of the year, Applied Finance Group and will return on Sunday after extending his trip a few days for family fun.

Over the weekend I travel to a potential char broiled vacation spot for a few days next week as forest fires have put the trip on tentative notice. We both will be comfortably tethered come Monday as market participants decide if they like the outcome of the vote, AND we have a new, “smaller world”  US open champion.  What country will he be will be from?

Have a Wonderful Weekend! Talk to you next week.

JK

214-706-4300   www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in Donald Capone, Investing/Financial Planning, John Kvale, Market Comments, Personal, World Political

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Happy Memorial Day, Greece is the Word

Posted on May 25, 2012 by | Comments Off

This coming Monday, Memorial Day, is the national holiday honoring and in memory of those in the armed forces who work so hard to allow the rest of us to enjoy the safety and lifestyle we have today. With a nephew and MANY close friends and acquaintances currently serving, I feel the need to say an extra special thanks to all of you.

THANK YOU FOR ALL YOU DO!

Markets:

Greece is the new Word and certainly will make for headlines over the next coming weeks. We would not be surprised to see large market movement in both directions. As the old saying goes, “buy low and sell high” it’s really that simple.  So when things are on sale we will do so, and visa versa.

Lastly, as today marks the movement from one grade to another for my oldest, let’s not forget to spend time with the important ones in our lives. I really do agree that the days go slow but the years go fast!

Have a super long weekend.

I am out most of the morning today, returning briefly later in the afternoon and we will be out on Monday.

Best Wishes and Happy Memorial Day!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

 

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Posted in Investing/Financial Planning, John Kvale, Personal, World Political

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How A Greece Default Might Actually Work? Simon Derrick, Bank of New York Chief Strategist Explains

Posted on May 16, 2012 by | Comments Off

Yesterday (5-15-12) I had the opportunity through a CFA related event to visit with, and listen to Simon Derrick, chief strategist of Bank of New York and London resident. Simon had one of the most vivid explanations of actually how Greece may default, as such I wanted to share it with you.

In actuality, it may be a smoother transition that many thought. These are possibilities, not guarantees, but the best I have personally heard so far.

On a Friday after most market participants have headed home, sometime after the next Greek election which occurs on June 17th 2012, according to Simon, Germany could announce there is nothing they can do for Greece, but they will attempt to help the other countries as much as possible. This would set into motion a Greek announcement that their country will have a two-week bank holiday in order to keep from having a run on the bank.

During the bank holiday the printers start churning, and a new currency is born. This currency is then disseminated throughout the country for use and the Euro currency is sent packing.

A second less immediate thought, but very important item is the approval of new Passports for travel between the neighboring countries. (This is interesting and speaks to the tourist and travel related importance for Greece.)

Capital markets will certainly do what they do with rates and currencies, most likely devaluing the newly minted currency. While no one knows the exact amount, 20-30% would be reasonable and could even be higher.

Here is where it gets interesting, after the dust settles, and some type of stabilization occurs (assuming it does), Greece, a tourist centric country, is sure to throw out extremely great travel deals to kick-start their newly formed country. Since their currency will most likely be valued so low, they will have a very strong advantage over their former connected countries in attracting tourists.

Maybe we will all be taking Greek vacations soon, only time will tell.

Here is a recent Bloomberg interview with Simon talking in greater details about currency and mentioning rates, which we will be speaking about soon.

 

Have a Great Day!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

 

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Posted in Economy, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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A Political Weekend Across the Pond

Posted on May 4, 2012 by | Comments Off

The fact that so many US investors, including ourselves, will be watching the various elections overseas is as interesting as the elections themselves, and points to how small the world has become.

This weekend France, Germany, Italy, and Greek citizens enter the polls to set their political wishes in motion. I find it interesting these countries have a weekend vote, which may help the turn out, not a bad idea, but I digress.

France’s current chief Sarkozy, is facing a formidable foe and according to Robert McTeer will most likely not make it as a return leader. If this happens, austerity measures changes may be at hand.

An Italian vote is hopeful to reinforce confidence for Mario Monti, who took over in November from the scandal ridden Berlusconi chair. This vote, if correctly forecasted should be a stabilizer.

A less important regional election in Germany, however if polling is correct the opponent to the current incumbent  Merkel party will win, causing slight concerns as change may mean an adjustment in philosophy. This vote, if correct is more a hairline crack in the ice, but worth keeping an eye on.

A Greek parliament vote could expedite this little brother’s country’s exit from the Euro. (On a side note, yesterday in an all day seminar a very well-known international debt portfolio manager called the break up of the Euro within 3 years.)

As you know we are not politically inclined, but as the many moving parts begin to churn this weekend, we will be interested in the reactions from market participants. While something similar to the Oscar’s may be more entertaining, market participants, including ourselves will be focused on the above voting!

Have a Great Weekend!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in Investing/Financial Planning, World Political

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Energizer Bunny Capital Markets….”Going and Going”

Posted on February 28, 2012 by | Comments Off

For those familiar with the Energizer Bunny that keeps “Going and Going” we liken the capital markets of late to the famed commercial.

Yesterday capital markets were faced with further discontent from G-20 members who were meeting just south of the US border in Mexico city, only to have market participants shrug it off later in the day. Along with G-20 concerns, gas prices have risen to levels that provide a small headwind, nearing $110/barrel WTI.

Last night, our timely party poopers, the S&P Ratings Agency, put Greece on Selective Default notice. In true Energizer fashion the capital markets smartly appear to keep “Going and Going.”

By some estimates over $450 billion has left the capital equity markets in the last few years in search of a new home. If our feelings are correct, that money may be returning, happily providing our “Going and Going” markets. Markets never rise in a permanent straight line, but let’s all enjoy the ride!

Today, from the Eastern US area, Donald starts his second of three full days of training on our new rebalancing allocation system, Tamarac. So far our expectations have been met, which means further enhancements to investment portfolios. Thank you technology!

Have a Good Day!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

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Posted in Donald Capone, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Personal

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One Size Fits All, A Greece Example

Posted on June 28, 2011 by | Comments Off

Much has been made of the Greek situation as of late, especially given the emotional protests and debtor lifestyle the country is currently enthralled. While Greece as a country and their policies are not without flaws, we thought a simple and unique comparison may be of interest.

Imagine for a moment, there was only one shirt for us all to wear.  When the European Union was established, many of the participating countries were similar to kids. Many were not mature, had limited individual problems, and excitedly entered the EU, as a one size fits all shirt was just the ticket.

A one size fits all shirt, promises ease of decision-making, a loose commonalty, and similar identity, just as it might if we were children, all wearing the same shirt.

One Size Fits All

As countries mature, they begin to have their own identity, make their own decisions (good and bad) and begin to gravitate in unique directions. The one size fits all shirt no longer has many of its advantages. Our mythical shirt, which made us all feel stronger as kids and gave us a nice feeling commonality, is actually becoming restrictive. Just like in life, countries grow at different paces and to totally different sizes.

The cost of our mythical shirt suddenly becomes too expensive for one in our group

When it becomes time to replace our mythical shirt, again for a one size fits all, one person in our group cannot afford the replacement cost. In our example this person lacks some of the levers to purchase a new shirt; devalue its currency, default, make individual austerity measures to slowly begin saving enough for the shirt. (Maybe they don’t even want to wear the shirt anymore.)

As time continues to pass and our group continues to change and move in unique directions the many advantages of a one size fits all shirt MAY lead to a rejection of the group as a whole, leaving one or many to opt for their own shirt, thereby controlling cost, growth and size on its own.

This is just our mythical example, but it does have merit and may bear a resemblance to what Greece is dealing with currently.

Have a Great Day!

JK

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Posted in Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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