Last week the Capital Markets took a decidedly positive tone during the first couple of days of September, but with a Holiday weekend looming, we paused before commenting as trading volumes were, and still are, light, as investors across the globe were still out on their last vacation of the summer.
A few positive economic numbers, consumer confidence, initial claims and the Case-Shiller Housing index produced better results than expected by most participants, and are far less rear view mirror looking than the previously mentioned Q2 GDP Report.
As we near the 30 day window for our company treadmill reports (earnings season), we enter “Confession time.” Confession time, is when public companies announce they cannot meet their expectations and thus make a public announcement of a shortfall and in street terms “guide down.” The Economy did slow during the summer and especially late summer, we have been crowing that it was a pause with many calling it a “double dip.” We feel strongly there will be confessions, and they should come shortly. Depending on the magnitude, and owner, judgements will be made by market participants as to the validity, or failure of our mid-economic pause theme. We again stay in the pause camp, but of course there are no guarantees, and events yet to happen can change the future dramatically.
What does all this mean?
While we may feel as a consumer that things are slow and maybe even a bit gloomy, the capital markets are forward looking, and at this time, may be predicting a happy end of year, for us not only as investors, but also as consumers.
After receiving a few calls from across the country, tornadoes pointing right at our office/residence (both close in proximity), I still have yet to see a tornado in person after more than four decades of living in Texas. I certainly do not want to, but keep a watch out anyway. (Maybe I should let the family know they can come out of the bathtub now? ….haha)
Have a Good Day, and enjoy the first day of NFL Football Season!