S&P 500 year end call ….. Holiday Parties and nerds!

While we are certain most of you gleefully enjoy the spirit of the holiday season, investment nerds are different.

At a recent industry specific holiday party (CFA members only party) I found myself chatting with a hedge fund manager about the fiscal cliff and his year-end market expectations.  One thing led to another, and as word spread a group soon formed of various professionals all espousing their opinion and end of year closing S&P 500 price.

The group included portfolio managers, Trust officers, bankers, M&A guys along with several direct peers of our firm. Out with my cell phone for exact year-end number tracking and initials for the responsible party (withheld here) the bets were on. Of course we had a very large wager of $1 per person, not sagging the holiday stockings for sure.

Here are the actual estimates I gathered at the party.

Again, this is for the year-end closing of the S&P 500.(Far right circle and triangle are mean and median…yaya..nerds)

Nerds EOY 2012 S&P 500 Close

The interesting observation about the estimates are the disparity. As the official record keeper, I reminded the group of only a handful of full trading days bookmarked by lots of skeleton crew markets…..of course to no avail. These are huge moves for such a short time, just huge!

Conclusion: Even a group of investment nerds are dramatically different in their logic, reasoning, and estimates, but were all VERY convicted in their estimates…No wonder markets are so spastic lately!

Have a Great Day!


PS I will reveal the winner, if it is someone from the office.

PSS Apologies to any fellow nerds who may be reading this and involved in the survey…..hey…a spade is a spade…haha

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Comments are closed.