While we are certain most of you gleefully enjoy the spirit of the holiday season, investment nerds are different.
At a recent industry specific holiday party (CFA members only party) I found myself chatting with a hedge fund manager about the fiscal cliff and his year-end market expectations. One thing led to another, and as word spread a group soon formed of various professionals all espousing their opinion and end of year closing S&P 500 price.
The group included portfolio managers, Trust officers, bankers, M&A guys along with several direct peers of our firm. Out with my cell phone for exact year-end number tracking and initials for the responsible party (withheld here) the bets were on. Of course we had a very large wager of $1 per person, not sagging the holiday stockings for sure.
Here are the actual estimates I gathered at the party.
Again, this is for the year-end closing of the S&P 500.(Far right circle and triangle are mean and median…yaya..nerds)
The interesting observation about the estimates are the disparity. As the official record keeper, I reminded the group of only a handful of full trading days bookmarked by lots of skeleton crew markets…..of course to no avail. These are huge moves for such a short time, just huge!
Conclusion: Even a group of investment nerds are dramatically different in their logic, reasoning, and estimates, but were all VERY convicted in their estimates…No wonder markets are so spastic lately!
Have a Great Day!
PS I will reveal the winner, if it is someone from the office.
PSS Apologies to any fellow nerds who may be reading this and involved in the survey…..hey…a spade is a spade…haha214-706-4300 http://www.jkfinancialinc.com 8222 Douglas Ave # 590 Dallas, TX 75225