April Fools Capital Market dates to take note….

In 2010 April 26, 2011 April 29, and in 2012 April 2 marked a very special day for each respective year.

Care to guess what it was?

Ahhh, you got it…these days marked the capital markets high in two cases for the year, and very near for another…thats right, for the year.

No wet Capital market blankets here…..but

We are optimists at our heart and we generally look at the glass half full, unless the glass has a flaw or two. While certainly our glass is not shattering and spewing water, it does have some hairline fractures.

This from our friends at Zero Hedge speaking of the last time markets where at this level:

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Then 14164.5; Now 14164.5
• Regular Gas Price: Then $2.75; Now $3.73
• GDP Growth: Then +2.5%; Now +1.6%
• Americans Unemployed (in Labor Force): Then 6.7 million; Now 13.2 million
• Americans On Food Stamps: Then 26.9 million; Now 47.69 million
• Size of Fed’s Balance Sheet: Then $0.89 trillion; Now $3.01 trillion
• US Debt as a Percentage of GDP: Then ~38%; Now 74.2%
• US Deficit : Then $97 billion; Now $975.6 billion
• Total US Debt Outstanding: Then $9.008 trillion; Now $16.43 trillion
• US Household Debt: Then $13.5 trillion; Now 12.87 trillion
• Labor Force participation Rate: Then 65.8%; Now 63.6%
• Consumer Confidence: Then 99.5; Now 69.6
• S&P Rating of the US: Then AAA; Now AA+

Discipline Trumps Hope

Just as a snowball can grow as it goes down a hill, capital markets can melt up and gather steam too. We are not looking a gift horse in the mouth, we only wish there were more proof that we deserve to be where we are in the capital markets. As a result, we have and will continue to stick to our discipline and re-allocate (sell high, buy low) as necessary.

participants are making bets…we hope they are correct…but safety rules

If the bets are correct and the economic situation accelerates, we will not be left behind, nor will we have any regrets. If the bets are wrong, there will be a day of reckoning, which we will be prepared for …even if it does not come!

Have a Great Day!

JK