Earnings, Interest Rates, Summer Friday

With over 150 S&P 500 companies reporting this week the picture grows clearer on the US Economy. Much of the same, slow growth, low sales and high margins achieved by productivity enhancements and slow hiring.

Earnings Scorecard

So far so good, while there have been a few large company misses, generally we are still comfortable with our projections from the beginning of the year of $105 in earnings for the S&P 500. What continues to surprise us is investor enthusiasm pushing the P/E multiple to near 17..noseblead levels, in our opinion given a slow growth assumption. Still Frothy…but we can grow into it…by going sideways.

Interest Rates, Still the story

Rates have begun ticking back up, putting pressure on most markets across the world. I have been working on a complex and simple analysis of where interest rates may go. While not complete, sharing will come soon. Briefly, and as a teaser with rates at 2.60% currently this analysis shows they may go much higher.

Summer Friday

We have some exciting posts for next week, that we think are very neat……But Ahhh…..today is another wonderful, Summer Friday, that leads many into the weekend, some for holiday, and many just to the pool.  Enjoy your Friday and your weekend, time goes fast, it is hard to believe we are looking August square in the eyes….so do not forget to spend that precious time with those special in your life!

Have a Great Friday and a Super Weekend….Aloha !

John Kvale