The False Justification of a “No Down” Market … Poof (Part Two)

Call us worry warts … I would prefer to justify the gray hair that finds its way to the top of my head prematurely …. EXPERIENCED !


Original Quotes/Research BY US that Keep Us GroundedNo Down


Here are a two simple items during a much different time than today that keeps us grounded and maybe slightly sleepless at times:


 From our Proprietary In-House Research Page not to be forgotten —

 …… From 2008 to 2010, we were surprised as professional investors to find that there were 40 movements of 4% in this 36 month time frame. Yes you did read that correctly, 40 times in 3 years versus 35 in the prior 46 years!

… (capital markets)  went from an average 4% movement of less than annually, to more than one 4% movement monthly!   ……..

That’s a Daily move !!!

Compare that to last Friday’s (7-18-14) complacency stats post:

  • The S&P 500 Index Closed down over 1%
  • Breaking a 62 day streak of no closing up or down movement greater than 1%
  • Longest streak since 1955 (Wow!)

Cover page quote (This from our Quarterly Cover Page in Q 4 2008 …. One of the toughest I have ever written, never to be forgotten!)

…..Enclosed you will find your Fourth Quarter 2008 Performance Report.  We have collectively lived through one of the worst capital market quarters in history.  …….. Capital Market Returns for the trailing quarter, 9-30-08 through 12-31-2008 were as follows:

 S&P 500                                             (-22.56) %    

Russell 2000                                  (-26.51) %

10 year Long Bond                       15.06   %


It’s different this time!

Very doubtful.

We are not saying this is going to happen…only that IT CAN and we have experienced it. Experiences like this are the best one can have especially during a NO DOWN MARKET !


Your grounded team!


Have a Great Day!


John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

8222 Douglas Ave # 590

Dallas, TX 75225

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