First and foremost I want to wish everyone safety and healthiness as we go through these times. We will get through this and will all be stronger and more knowledgeable for the experience.
As mentioned in our Q 2 2020 Newsletter, the speed of the lower Equity markets left many investors struggling for cash to recklessly sell their safest assets, bonds. This put unique pressure on Bonds and Bond Funds, temporarily lowering their value in stead of increasing their value, which is what should happen as interest rates lower. The good news with this situation, with history as our guide, this situation corrects over shorter time frames and also allows for our re-investment at artificially lower rates, a win, win in our opinion!
An Unknown becomes a Known?
As of this writing the contagion continues, uniquely, do to the self-imposed economic slowdown from the Virus, at a given point in time, hopefully much sooner than many may think, a great unknown will become a known.
Unlike the last two major economic slowdowns there was uncertainty in far reaching aspects of other assets and other parts of the world and economies.
At some point in time we will conquer the Virus and the unknown will become the known!
Capital Market Participants will anticipate this and begin pricing in the not only conclusion of this economic slow down but the positive affects of the very large stimulus package that has been put into place.
As mentioned in again and more prominently, in our Q 2 2020 Newsletter which you hopefully have already received, there have been an abundance of stimulus programs that at this point have likely not even begun to filter into our economy in any meaningful way.
Once the full effects of the stimulus seep through our country and the unknown becomes the known we truly believe that our economy and therefore capital markets will be in a much better place in a much shorter time than in prior slowdowns.
Stay safe, thanks for all of the positive comments – we will get through this together.
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP