Tag Archives: 10 year returns

Q3 2023 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Rate Increases re-review Forward Looking Effects- Research Affiliates Robert Arnott 10 Year Expectations … What we are doing this Summer … By John Kvale CFA, CFP …

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q3 2023 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

BREAK IN – The TDAmeritrade Charles Schwab merger will happen over Labor Day Weekend (September 5th, 2023) – Only Changes: Log in portal and account number – Expect (no reply) Legal Paperwork and emails!

Q3 2023 Newsletter


Looking Forward Now with Regards to Rate Increases

Three Articles Centered around this main leading Article –

In our main lead article, we discuss the look forward expectations of NOT lowering rates as soon as many think. With higher rates, cost of capital will be more expensive for many projects, giving the Federal Reserve the desired slow down in the Economy ! Hopefully, and not too much!

Research Affiliates Robert Arnott 10 Year Expected Returns

Take note of Arnott’s powerful firm with predictions of the slower/safer Bonds earning more than the good ole SP 500 like stocks, earning and inferior 10 year return- Lots of disclaimers of course!

Higher for Longer

Asset Allocation – What’s old is New Again (Wish I would have thought of this title for the Newsletter) – Bonds may be our new Buddy – Especially if Powell is to be taken at his word!

Slow motion Slowdown – It is likely not over yet

Sneaky stimulus remains and with the fencing of Banks, this has the effect of additional stimulus in the system!

A Day in the Life and Summer Plans

While we may not talk Wall Street talk, our days are full of watchful research and fun client interactions!

The return of what we are doing this summer finally makes its way back into the Newsletter – we hope you enjoy!

Have a Great Summer! Talk in the Fall!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.

Where the next 10 years best returns will be, according to Research Affiliates – PS Travels – Monday Holiday

It’s tough holding, or even better, investing, into capital markets (or asset classes) that have not been performing well (never go all in of course.) Over the past several quarters we have re-iterated multiple times,  (here and here and here) that we believe international markets hold better value.

Research Affiliates – Robert Arnott

One of the most respected investment and research firms in the industry Research Affiliates and their founder Robert Arnott,  recently opened a portion of their research to all investors. Here is their estimate of equity market returns for the next 10 years.

We were happily surprised at their conclusions:

Research Affiliates Q 4 14 Expected 10 yr return Equities Bar

US large and small companies score VERY (farthest right and fourth from right) low on Research Affiliates expected 10 year return.  We agree!

Have a good day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS Traveling on Friday and Cathy is having a procedure that may keep her from the office as well,  Monday is a Holiday and our office will be closed !

PSS More on this research soon!

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Dallas, TX 75225