Tag Archives: 10 Year Treasury

February 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Posted on March 2, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Hello and Welcome to our February 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In – Cool New Feature – In the past we have done our videos on YouTube and this video will also be on our Channel there, however, we have added new features to our site here, that allows us to embed the video here, AND you will not get hit with tons of advertising after the video…. hope you enjoy!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

February – 2020 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund)

In an abbreviated three part series, a preview to our extended Q2 Newsletter Article, we discuss the origination of the very first Index ETF called SPY nick named the Spider and then the proliferation, and finally in part 3 of our series the dangers of non liquid ETF’s during stress,… never knowing stressful times were just around the corner.

Here are links to each post:

Capital Market Comments

This is a year to date graph of the S&P 500, Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 (Small Companies) indexes.

A silly but true Wall Street Saying comes to mind…

“Markets Go Up on an Escalator and Down on the Elevator!”

We left a different chart off because it looks more dramatic and there is enough drama around the Virus and Market Reactions.

Couple of Interesting Statistics for you to keep the perspective

  • So far this season, 60 Million people in the US have contracted the flu (CDC)
  • So far this season, 14 thousand people in the US have died from the flu (CDC)
  • There are 22 – yes TWENTY TWO confirmed cases of Corona Virus infections at this time
  • One death from the Corona Virus
  • Capital Markets are where they were just 4 months ago – We got back there fast… see saying above

3-1-20 YTD Index Returns

Possible Chance – All time 10 Year Treasury Low

The chart below is of the 10 year treasury yield, which loosely correlates to Mortgage rates…

This is an all time low! 

We would wait a little before actually taking action, as the swift movement down in rates is likely not reflected yet- but get ready….

Touch base with your Mortgage Professional or us –

Consider Lowering and Locking any fixed rate mortgages or loans!

Here is a Detailed Article on our Thoughts

3-1-20 Treasury 10 year all time low

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Leave a comment

Posted in General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Monthly Review, Podcast, Video

Tagged , , , , ,

Good News From Interest Rates – Friday

Posted on November 8, 2019 by | Leave a comment

While the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell have been lowering short term rates, see notes by us here, here and here….

Until just recently, longer term rates were following short term rates down…

Good News From Interest Rates

While the FOMC does control short term rates, they have much less control of longer term rates and actually by lowering short term rates they were hoping for this….

Higher long term rates are our friend … Possible reasons:

  • Market participants way of being more positive
  • Tariff talks proceeding
  • Less fear
  • Expectation of future growth
11-7-19 Ten Year Treasury Update

10 Year Treasury Rate

If we showed a longer term chart you would see it still has a ways to go as we are only nearing 2% – half full guys… have to start somewhere…  For now, good news!

Newsletter Under WayQ 4 2019 Newsletter Banner small

We have some really neat items under way for the Q 1 2020 (yikes- did we just say that) Newsletter… we have found some great Government Public sources of information that we think you will really like – now on to pulling it all together for brevity and clarity — never thought those research paper skills would be so used – Sorry to all the English teachers that did not get full effort..yes you told me so! haha

Today is a chilly Friday and Thanksgiving is just around the corner…

Have a Great Friday and Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA. CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

Leave a comment

Posted in Economy, FOMC, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged , ,

Interest Rates and Their Importance, Part 1

Posted on April 25, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Yesterday the 10 year US Treasury Bond did something it has not done in some time …. reach a yield of 3%.

4-24-18 10 year Treasury Yield

The Yield Curve – Interest Rates

We have been preparing for some time a multipart series about interest rates and the yield curve its self, and with the recent move in rates higher (finally) the timing could not be better. You will see a lot about this in the coming weeks if you peer into the Financial Section on your computer, periodical or tablet view … so we wanted to prep in advance.

This discussion will be multipart analysis, discussion, education and conclusion …. we hope you enjoy (we think you will as there is a terrific conclusion).

While the chart above shows the most popular “Headline” rate for most, it is really just one part of a series of rates …. here is where our discussion is born… so let’s go!

20180424_122733630_iOS

Liking to keep things simple, this is a self drawn chart that we will build upon, but gets the point across.

The longer something takes, generally the more it should cost.  (Greater risk of loss)

Said another way, the more time something takes, the more it should cost.

If you loan a buddy $100 bucks today to be repaid tomorrow, it is less risky than if you give it to him for a year and hope to get it back! Right?

Our self made chart shows just this, the longer the time, the greater the cost.

Looking again at our chart, we could say the term is anywhere from one day going all the way out to 30 years, with the afore mentioned 10 year term being near the right end of the chart.

This chart shows what could be called a normal yield curve or cost situation.

Next up … Change!

Have a Great “Yield Curve Discussion” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Leave a comment

Posted in General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged , , ,

Taking a Peek at Interest Rates – 10 Year Treasury – Short and Long Term Look

Posted on January 24, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Low rates are great. However we have argued multiple times, low rates too long can cause more damage than good.

Higher rates … increasing moderately, NOT super fast is the perfect scenario.

10 Year Rate Peek

Over the short term, the much watched 10 Year Treasury Rate looks like it is on a tear… maybe even moving too fast …

1-22-18 10 year - 1 year graph

While we peek at the short term, turning points are more important over the LONG term ..

Here is a longer term chart …

1-23-18 10 Year Long term

The white line on this chart is what is called a trend line. Many call this stuff VooDoo … Let’s liken this to momentum in a sporting event… hard to define, but certainly existent.

Keep an eye on the far right corner of this chart … if it continues, then we may be headed for a sustainable period of longer term rates … Good if it occurs slowly.

Have a Great “Higher Rates” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Leave a comment

Posted in Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged , ,

Janet/FOMC Pause on Rates, Markets Cheer

Posted on September 26, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Not surprisingly, Janet Yellen and the gang at the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) hit the pause button last week on an interest rate increase.

No Rate Increase

Basically the FOMC is signaling no rate increase before the election. As strong of a conviction (huge review) that we have for a rate increase, we are fine with a delay given the coming election (first debate tonight.)

Capital Markets Pleased

Treasury Yields (rates) Down Bonds Up, Equities Up, Utilities (rate sensitive) Up

9-23-16-10-year-yield9-23-16-sp-5009-23-16-utilities

We were slightly surprised by the overzealous capital market reactions!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Leave a comment

Posted in Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged , , , ,

Just when you thought rates were low forever … World Bank Pokes at Yellen … Friday … Traveling

Posted on June 12, 2015 by | Leave a comment
Could rates finally be on the uptrend ? Time will tell..

 

6-11-15 10 Year Treasury Yield

After dropping to 1.70% earlier this year, the 10 year treasury is looking 2.5% square in the eye …  The World Bank chimed in and stated that Janet Yellen needs to hold rates down ..

Rates don’t seem to care!

Summertime Friday … Travels Con’t

After a wonderful, but fast last couple of days, I am still traveling in a coastal state, looking into next week a bit lightly tethered via electronics … but always connected.

Enjoy your Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Leave a comment

Posted in Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, World Political

Tagged , , , ,

Nice Economic Report Adds to Our Theme … Raise those rates Janet!

Posted on February 9, 2015 by | 1 comment

The regular monthly smorgasbord employment report released last Friday (2-5-15), continued our theme (higher rates), with even more positives than we had expected.

Digging Deeper than just the Headlines

While the USA generated 257k (first estimate, will be revised) new jobs for the month of January, the action was elsewhere.

  • Average hourly earnings were up .5%, this is a huge number and very good for the employment situation as employees may FINALLY be getting a raise!
  • Unemployment rate went UP (increasing labor participation rate), but that is because more people entered the workforce, again VERY good for the economy!

Higher Rates – 10 Year Yield Rises

10 Year 2-6-15

While all of this is good news for the economy, these are headwinds for the capital markets, in the SHORT term (1-2 years)  …. longer term this is very good news, as it helps support the frothy valuations and gives us more confidence that the Fed will be able to raise rates this year … FINALLY!

Janet Yellen and the other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members … Raise those rates !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialnc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

1 Comment

Posted in Economy, Market Comments

Tagged , , , , ,

August Financial Planning Tip, Economic and Capital Market Review (Video)

Posted on September 2, 2014 by | 1 comment

August has come and gone. Say goodbye to the warm weather in most parts, hello to fall, and …. are you ready for some FOOTBALL. (Glass can always be half full!)

Newbies to our writings, we do this monthly and even include a video for an extra personal touch. Each month we strive to bring you a neat Financial Planning tip that may help you save or earn, this months is once again directly from the trenches. …  So let’s get started.

VIDEO

Direct Link to YouTube August 2014 Video

Vimeo August 2014 Direct Link

Financial Planning Tip of the Month:

Get rid of that PMI Insurance

Now that housing prices have come back, if you happen to have PMI insurance, there is a way to rid yourself of this expense.

Once your loan to value is better than 80%, try the following:

  • Call your mortgage company and ask them how to remove your PMI insurance premium
  • They will most likely ask you for an appraisal of some type (do not order this appraisal directly, your lender will most likely do this for you)
  • Complete the appraisal and the necessary forms from your mortgage
  • Return the documents to your mortgage company and tadaa .. you will have a lower payment without the afore mentioned PMI insurance premium

That’s it … with many more fun planning tips to come ..thanks to those in the trenches with great questions !

OH NO … Interest Rate Talk AGAIN … Yep ! Sorry

This eloquently said from Bloomberg View, by Mohamed A. El-Erian, Allianz SE Economic Advisor:

…Bond investors tend to be more risk averse than equity investors, and thus reposition earlier in response to a higher probability of a market selloff. This is in part because they are more focused on the macroeconomic picture, and in part because bonds have a different risk-reward profile: They ultimately pay only their face value, whereas stocks can keep going up.….

In English … Lower bond yields warrant special attention … We have LOWER yields. We plan on digging deeper into this next month, but for now .. Attention is very warranted.

10 Year Treasury 8-29-14

 

Special Goodbye to Robin Williams

Robin Williams

Depression hits most at least once in their life. If you know someone who may be on the edge, take the cue from one of the funniest person’s ever and get them help. Mr. Williams you will be missed nano nano !

 That’s the August 2014 Review,

Thanks for reading/Listening/Watching 

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

1 Comment

Posted in General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Video

Tagged , , , , , , , ,

10 Year Treasury Rate ALERT … Not Alarm

Posted on May 21, 2014 by | Leave a comment

We have mentioned interest rates probably more than you would like, but rates are so critical at this moment in time.

10 Year Treasury Yield Alert

10 Year Treasury 5-16-14

The rate of the US 10 year treasury has fallen decidedly below our voodoo trend line.

Here are a few possibilities in order of fear with our possible probabilities .

  1. We are going into a recession (Very Scary but only a 10% chance from our perch)
  2. There is a shortage of supply due to the Fed’s QE purchases (20%)
  3. Mario Draghi’s latest comments on EU QE purchases are chasing investors here (10%)
  4. Pension/Institutional/Big investors are shifting to fixed income (10%)
  5. Russia Ukraine fears are pushing our rates down (10%)
  6. Something we do not know yet (40%)

We want to alert you to this, but not alarm. We are on VERY careful watch.

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Leave a comment

Posted in Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

Tagged , , ,

Video

April 2014 Financial Planning, Economic and Capital Market Review (Video)

Welcome to our monthly review of the latest events of the last four weeks. With the tax season being so rough and fresh on our minds, we start with a much-needed tax related Financial Planning Tip.

Click here if not visible

Vimeo Direct Link Here

Getting the Most Out of the Sales Tax Deduction

This months Financial Planning was once again straight from the field and this time from a relative.

Those using Schedule A, receive the benefit of deducting a pre-set amount of sales taxes based on your income, zip, and number of exemptions OR using your actual sales tax that you have paid over the year.

This is from the IRS’s website …

If you didn’t save all your receipts, you can still choose to claim state and local sales taxes. You could fill out the worksheet and use the optional general sales tax tables in the Instructions for Schedule A (Form 1040) , but why not take the easy route and use the Sales Tax Deduction Calculator!

Take note of that friendly last comment from the IRS.  Most of the time the easy route is probably best, however if you have any of the following, consider double checking your “easy route” amount versus your paid:

  • Car Purchase, boat, aircraft or lease vehicle
  • Substantial additional renovation of home
  • Unusually large taxable purchase of any kind
  • Easily accessible receipts (often via debit cards or other easily traceable sources)

Capital Markets, Gold, or Rates ?

Recently I challenged a group as to what they thought were the most important item currently, choosing from the Dow, Gold or interest rates.

Hands down, interest rates. This is the 10 year treasury rate, seen hovering over the voodoo chart line.

10 Year Treasury 5-1-14

We are watching this closely as we just do not know why it is persistently staying so low. Late in April the FOMC lowered their bond purchases by another $10 billion monthly. Recall these purchases were to keep rates down. Doh… Seems as if rates do not know they should be rising.

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Leave a comment

Posted on May 5, 2014 by in Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Tax Related, Video

Tagged , , , , , , ,