Tag Archives: Atlanta Fed

Why the Fed may be in a Pickle! CPI Inflation Hot … But Economy Slowing … According to Feds Own Research

Imaging you are walking an economic tight rope (We are calling it a pickle) and had no easy way out….

FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell may be in a Pickle.

Too Hot But Also Too Cold

Here at the Cleveland Federal Reserve , the FOMC’s own research from one of their own showed an estimate of CPI for the most recent of 8.59%…. thing is, it came in above 9% ….

Much too hot for the FOMC’s liking!

Then you have this from ANOTHER of the Fed’s own research ….

Atlanta Federal Reserve GDP Now Cast

At the time of this chart their estimate was -2.1% … today it is -1.6% (jumps around as economic reports are released and fed into the beast/model) – predicting the R – Word!

C/O Pierce Kvale

Ok, so CPI/Inflation is too hot …. let’s slow this economy AND INFLATION down….

BUT Wait – the Economy is already slowing per my own members research!

What to do? The Pickle !

Have a Great “Glad not to be in a Pickle” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

June 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Investing KISS – Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our June 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

June 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Back to Basics Series – Investing – KISS (Keep it simple silly)

In our continued fun “Back To Basics” Series here we discuss Investing our next to last in the series … and just Keeping it Simple in doing so….

From the post:

While many analysis dig so deep into investments that it makes your eyes glaze over, there are really two important parts of investing. KISS – Keep is simple silly

  • 1. Save as much as you possibly can, and s early as you can.
  • 2. Make sure your allocation above is such that during rough rainy times, a.k.a. slowdown/recession you do not eject and sell. Our human nature of fight or flight will take you out of your investment portfolio at exactly the wrong time if you are over allocated to risky investments.

Shady Used Car Offer –

In true musician like unknowing of a popular song… Our post here of a shady used car offer turned out to be a hit…

A true, made as succinct story of a mom having multiple increasing offers of her teenage seniors late model car after being told it was totaled caught a nerve….

We received comments from across the country, many of folks we do not even know, but chimed in to give their two cents worth….

Maybe slightly controversial …. for the record we try to stay away from too much drama as there is enough roaming around the airwaves, but we could just not resist this true story!

Trust but verify those used car offers!

Capital Market Comments

Atlanta Fed Predicts Slowdown – The R Word

Literally in the last week of the quarter, out pops an updated research report from the Atlanta Federal Reserve called their GDP Nowcast

After holding strong at a 1% Q2 2022 GDP estimate for some time, new data entered into their model dropped the estimate WAY down to -2.1% for their most recent estimate…. see far right green line of the graph….

If correct, this means the US is officially in a recession already!

We will talk much more on this soon, but for the record we were very surprised at much of the Wall Street Reaction to this report, most notably interest rates, which went down dramatically!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of July!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents