Tag Archives: BEA

GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Q3 2023 Advanced Release … Headline Versus Second Look of Release…. Defense Spending …

On Thursday, October 26, 2023, the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) released the Advanced Estimate aka first try at the Q3 2023 GDP for the US Economy….

As a quick reminder, GDP is one of the broadest measures of US Economic growth …. heck two consecutive negative GDP prints is the basic definition of a recession….back to the print…

The most followed headline number was a 4.9% increase…. at first blush a very positive number and a bit of a head scratcher…. especially given Capital Market’s recent crankiness…..

Government defense spending was (thankfully under current Geo Politics) up huge due to defense spending. Defense spending is not the same as organic Economic growth… it just does not filter through the system the same…still VERY important under current circumstances….

Have a Great “Now you Know the rest of the GDP Report” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

First Negative GDP Print, Half Way to the R Word … Happy Friday …

As mentioned here in our prior post, of the R Word…

A recession is defined by two consecutive negative quarter GDP prints…

This week we are half way there…

BEA Releases Negative Q 1 2022

In this BEA Release Here (Bureau of Economic Analysis) their ADVANCED estimate (it will be revised) came in at -1.4%

That gets us softly (thankfully) half way to the R Word! Hang tight, it likely will get rougher before calmer!

It’s a Friday and this is a bit heavy for the day, but wanted to get it out there for you to see….

Hey kept is short though…

Enjoy your Friday and your Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Higher Rates (Short Term) are in the Cards … Maybe even sooner

Barring a meltdown of some type, the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final revision for the most recent quarter of 5% gives Janet Yellen and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gang a green light.

Mentioned earlier here in our post and a prominent portion of our coming Newsletter, we think higher short-term rates are in the cards. With a long-term average of 5.10% (backed by research in our coming Newsletter) rates may begin to get back to normal … Finally!

From the Bureau of Economic Analysis Release (BEA):

12-24-14 Q 3 2014 Final GDP Estimate

We acknowledge the argument this is backward looking and with tumbling (more like falling lead balloon) energy prices, future GDP prints will be weaker initially. We think higher rates MAY have moved to an earlier point on the calendar for the deciding FOMC gang. Much welcomed by us !

Lucky timing for an expanded article on this the next Newsletter.

Have a Happy Holiday Friday!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

PS REMINDER … only crickets at the office today!

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