Barring a meltdown of some type, the recent Gross Domestic Product (GDP) final revision for the most recent quarter of 5% gives Janet Yellen and Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) gang a green light.
Mentioned earlier here in our post and a prominent portion of our coming Newsletter, we think higher short-term rates are in the cards. With a long-term average of 5.10% (backed by research in our coming Newsletter) rates may begin to get back to normal … Finally!
From the Bureau of Economic Analysis Release (BEA):
We acknowledge the argument this is backward looking and with tumbling (more like falling lead balloon) energy prices, future GDP prints will be weaker initially. We think higher rates MAY have moved to an earlier point on the calendar for the deciding FOMC gang. Much welcomed by us !
Lucky timing for an expanded article on this the next Newsletter.
Have a Happy Holiday Friday!
John Kvale CFA, CFP
PS REMINDER … only crickets at the office today!
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First Negative GDP Print, Half Way to the R Word … Happy Friday …
As mentioned here in our prior post, of the R Word…
A recession is defined by two consecutive negative quarter GDP prints…
This week we are half way there…
BEA Releases Negative Q 1 2022
In this BEA Release Here (Bureau of Economic Analysis) their ADVANCED estimate (it will be revised) came in at -1.4%
That gets us softly (thankfully) half way to the R Word! Hang tight, it likely will get rougher before calmer!
It’s a Friday and this is a bit heavy for the day, but wanted to get it out there for you to see….
Hey kept is short though…
Enjoy your Friday and your Weekend!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
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Posted in Economy, FOMC, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged BEA, FOMC, GDP, R Word, Recession