Tag Archives: Black Ice Investing

On the Road Again/Still … Black Ice Investing Con’t

Being from Texas, Willie Nelson, became a favorite as a kid. If you know Willie, you know “On the Road Again” … and I am/still, in a state near the coast on the wonderful East Coast time. I will be back in the saddle Sunday night.On the Road Again Willie

Black Ice Investing

Not surprisingly, as mentioned in our Newsletter and Quarterly Performance cover letter, we may be entering a period of Black Ice Investing.

So far large company markets have pulled back about  6%, erasing most of the gains for the year. Most all other asset classes have been in the red for some time. Oddly their little brother small companies, who we spoke of here, and have been in the red for some time, appear to be getting their feet under them and moving higher …. hmmm … maybe little brother was the canary in the coal mine on this one. Time will tell!

We are watching EVERY MOVE and may be opportunistic as our possible theme appears to be playing out.

Have a Great Day and a Super Weekend !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225



Third Quarter 2014 J.K. Financial, Inc. Performance Report Cover Letter (Clients)

Dear Investor:

In this Quarter’s Newsletter, the lead investing article is about entering a period of “Black Ice” investing. The possible mistake is the tense as we stumbled into the end of this quarter in rather wobbly fashion, dragging almost all assets to a loss for the quarter and leading us to think we may already be in a period of “Black Ice” investing. This being the case, “historically” the final quarter is the best if history continues to rhyme.

Last quarter we mentioned possibly “leaning” towards international markets. While the Ukraine situation is disturbing, it has so far, been much less disruptive than many initially expected. Global sanctions have greatly inhibited their fledgling economic recovery. Our possible “lean” has been delayed as of yet. No one rings a bell when it’s time to move, but with a comfortable position currently we can afford to wait.

Even with “guarantee” being a four letter word of investing, we decided to use it anyway. We do “guarantee” that economic cycles will occur, over and over again. We “guarantee” there will be another recession, and this very weak recovery cycle is also long in the tooth. We look for continued economic recovery, but a slowdown is a possibility, and increasing in probability as time continues.

Interest rates have behaved better than we could have imagined this year. We have had no spikes upward and little disruption in the fixed income markets. We believe higher rates are in the cards sooner rather than later, and continue to protect against major downside in this area of the capital markets.

Getting back to our “Black Ice” investing theme:

A “Black Ice” situation for driving rhymes with our current investment backdrop. We are not sure if it is dangerous our not, or even if we will hit any. A few highlights of our “Black Ice” investment parity from the Newsletter:

  • Do not hit the Brakes
  • Can we pull over and wait it out?
  • Enter “Black Ice” at the correct speed for your safety
  • I am skidding, so counter steer!
  • There will be back seat drivers (Cassandra and Pollyanna’s)

Enclosed is your Q 3 2014 Quarterly Performance report. With only a smidgen of gains in larger US company equity asset classes, most other asset classes retreated. While we want to always make money, given our belief of a frothy environment, and entering “Black Ice” we are fine with minor moves at this time. Working off the excesses in a sideways fashion is better than the alternative.


John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure (Q3 2014 Performance Report)

Q 4 2014 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter Announcement … “Black Ice” Investing and Estate Planning

The final touches have been completed for our final Newsletter of 2014, Q 4. It can be found here on our newsletter tab of this site and here on our newsletter tab on our main company site (slightly fancier viewing options) as well as a few past years.

Black Ice Investing and Estate Planning Theme

Much like a musician never knows what song is going to be popular, we are frequently surprised on our subject matter popularity as well. Hopefully this will be a top the charts newsletter!14Q4_JKFin_Newsletter

We are VERY proud of our “Black Ice” investing parity article and have a teaser overview in the coming Cover letter for Quarterly Reports as well as a full eventual reprint her. We feel it is that important!

Estate Planning has dominated our conversations over the last several quarters, with both personal loss and many related.  We dug deep for a very broad description of the tools for a good Estate Plan.

We understand the novelty of a paper newsletter, but think it so old, might be new again. A paper copy is headed your way  ….  ENJOY ! …  John and The Gang at J.K. Financial, Inc.

Have a Great Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA , CFP
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225