Tag Archives: Bloomberg

July 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale …

Hello and Welcome to our June 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

July – 2020 Video (YouTube)

 

Financial Planning Tip  –

Careful Use of Credit Cards to Maximize Perkscredit card

We carefully spoke on the use of Credit Cards and maximizing their points and incentives due to repeated inquiries about the topic, in this post.

Credit Cards can be very dangerous and the card companies want us to carry balances … so PLEASE BE CARFUL!

Vaccine Update – It’s Looking GoodVaccine

In this post we pointed to an excellent Bloomberg Tracker that is showing multiple Phase III drugs about to hit the testing.

Phase III is the last one before mass production… making for a very fast track of multiple possible cures for Covid.

This is also market friendly as well.

Capital Market Comments

The Look Through Continues – Expect Bumps

Not trying to sound like a broken record, but in April we proclaimed that smart market participants may likely look through the valley and over the hill to eventual earnings.

As a reminder, we were really on an island as very few were positive at that time.

They did, and continue to do so … with a bit too much rose colored glasses in our opinion…

We continue to expect bumps as there are tons of unknowns and a negative narrative can take over quickly…

Not letting our guards down!

7-31-20 YTD Large International and Small

Have a Great July Update!

Talk to you at the end of August!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

It’s starting to Happen…. Good news on the Vaccine Front …. Friday

As we mentioned in our Newsletter and again in our monthly summary, the world has a Unified effort for a cure for Covid with some of the top brass of very powerful companies leading the collaborative charge….

Great Vaccine TrackerVaccine

In this Bloomberg Article from about a week ago…authors Cristin Flanagan, Riley Griffin, Robert Langreth pull together one of the best trackers we have seen with easy to read explanations on the progress of the various companies in finding a Vaccine…

It’s worth a read, especially if you have not been following the various results ….

Phase III is the last phase before mass production … there are MULTIPLE vaccines and medicines about to go into this Phase.

Hey, maybe there is not a pure, total fix, but if we get a couple of helpful medicines to go along with the vast increase in knowledge on how to treat this, the Future is Bright!

Ahhhh …. today is a Friday heading into a summer weekend…. enjoy your day and talk to you on the other side !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Stanley Druckenmiller – China Roars – Way out on a limb! Final of three Part Series

Two week ago here we introduced Stanley Druckenmiller. Last week we touched on his reasoning for raising rates, here.  In today’s final peace, Druckenmiller discusses China.

China Roars Stsnley Druckenmiller

If there is one thing most “Wall Streeters” agree upon, it is that China is in a major slowdown.

Druckenmiller says no way, and the effects:

  • Druckenmiller has never seen a capital market rise as much as the China markets have in the last few months/quarters, without economic prosperity coming within the next 6-9 months
  • “If correct, what do you think the price of oil will do?” Asks Druckenmiller
  • Other hard commodities, Gold, steel…. ??

These are Druckenmiller’s comments, about as variant of beliefs as can be!

Time will tell … Digital Diary to be called upon down the road!

Have a Great Day !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Stanley Druckenmiller – Part Two … Raise Rates Now!

Last week here we introduced Stanley Druckenmiller. Forced to clarify his thoughts from a private event that went public, he did so in a terrific Bloomberg interview … this is where it gets interesting.

Raise those RatesStsnley Druckenmiller

Druckenmiller beat the drum loudly in the interview for higher rates. We agree!

  • Unemployment is back down again ~ 5.5% from over 10%
  • Household total wealth is at an all time high, new highs met in 2013 (low rates cannot help anymore)
  • Financial Engineering is rampant-Low rates providing this opportunity (Mergers, leverage, buybacks … NOT Capital growth expenditures)
  • The longer we wait the greater the effects when rates finally are raised

These are Druckenmiller’s comments, well said!

Have a Great Day … more to come next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Dinner with Grant, Rosenblum, Koesterich and Kathleen Hayes

Last night the annual CFA Forecast Dinner occurred and after missing last year’s for the first time EVER, it was great to be back on track.

Jim Grantjames_grant

Famous for his regular newsletter called “Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Describing himself as

…an independent, value-oriented contrary minded….

Interest rates were higher in the great Depression than they are today!

Bonds/rates may have one last gasp here and then be very careful, no margin of safety.

My favorite two quotes from Grant!

Russ Koesterich Chief Strategist of BlakRockRuss Koesterich

My first meeting of Russ and his little firm, BlackRock (One of largest Money Management Firms in the world)

With a team just back from Saudi, “They way overshot” according to Russ and do not know why oil prices are so low. The native Saudi’s that Russ’s team met with would prefer HIGHER oil prices.

Harvey Rosenblum, Former Dallas Fed Official, now SMU Professor

Now the third or fourth time to visit with Rosenblum, after his departure from the Dallas FED he speaks a bit more freely.

QE, has dramatically extended and slowed the recovery  process.

“Since I am no longer at the FED and do not have to report my holdings every quarter, I am about to buy Gold …. inflation is kindling” Rosenblum chimed.

 

Kathleen Hayes the ModeratorKathleen Hayes

Bloomberg is one our favorite resources for information. Kathleen has a radio show weekdays, mid morning until early afternoon. Her straight forward, nicely handled moderator title for the event was perfect.

Once again a wonderful event, with great dialogue. Thanks to all who participated.

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS I am in the sky, headed West to watch our own, “Hollywood .. AKA the Brain” show his stuff … Returning Friday night !

PSS Digital diary !

http://www.jkfinncialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

 

 

August Financial Planning Tip, Economic and Capital Market Review (Video)

August has come and gone. Say goodbye to the warm weather in most parts, hello to fall, and …. are you ready for some FOOTBALL. (Glass can always be half full!)

Newbies to our writings, we do this monthly and even include a video for an extra personal touch. Each month we strive to bring you a neat Financial Planning tip that may help you save or earn, this months is once again directly from the trenches. …  So let’s get started.

VIDEO

Direct Link to YouTube August 2014 Video

Vimeo August 2014 Direct Link

Financial Planning Tip of the Month:

Get rid of that PMI Insurance

Now that housing prices have come back, if you happen to have PMI insurance, there is a way to rid yourself of this expense.

Once your loan to value is better than 80%, try the following:

  • Call your mortgage company and ask them how to remove your PMI insurance premium
  • They will most likely ask you for an appraisal of some type (do not order this appraisal directly, your lender will most likely do this for you)
  • Complete the appraisal and the necessary forms from your mortgage
  • Return the documents to your mortgage company and tadaa .. you will have a lower payment without the afore mentioned PMI insurance premium

That’s it … with many more fun planning tips to come ..thanks to those in the trenches with great questions !

OH NO … Interest Rate Talk AGAIN … Yep ! Sorry

This eloquently said from Bloomberg View, by Mohamed A. El-Erian, Allianz SE Economic Advisor:

Bond investors tend to be more risk averse than equity investors, and thus reposition earlier in response to a higher probability of a market selloff. This is in part because they are more focused on the macroeconomic picture, and in part because bonds have a different risk-reward profile: They ultimately pay only their face value, whereas stocks can keep going up.….

In English … Lower bond yields warrant special attention … We have LOWER yields. We plan on digging deeper into this next month, but for now .. Attention is very warranted.

10 Year Treasury 8-29-14

 

Special Goodbye to Robin Williams

Robin Williams

Depression hits most at least once in their life. If you know someone who may be on the edge, take the cue from one of the funniest person’s ever and get them help. Mr. Williams you will be missed nano nano !

 That’s the August 2014 Review,

Thanks for reading/Listening/Watching 

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

IMF Chair Christine Lagarde …. “Keep those rates low Chair Janet Yellen” …. Defying our Monday Request

So my plea to Chair Yellen earlier this week to stop the stimulus, was immediately countered by the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and their Chair, Chirsting Lagarde.

IMF Lowers it USA Growth Forecast

This from their recent USA directed report :

steps should be taken to approve and implement a credible medium-term fiscal consolidation plan so as to provide the flexibility for more near-term fiscal support to the economy….

And here is a chart from the IMF on their feared increase in rates:

IMF Monitary Policy chart

As mentioned in our Monday post, we disagree, of course no one at the IMF asked us. It is certainly easy to see why the FOMC’s job is not easy.

Bottom line, we think the US economy is stronger than what the IMF thinks….good news, we will find out in a few quarters….. Markets are still frothy though !!!

Have a Great Day!  Sorry for all the FED talk, but it is so topical, we had to jump in !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS If you happen to be an economic nerd like me and want to listen to the entire press conference here is the link.
PSS Here is a great interview with Bloomberg’s Tom Keene just after the press conference.
PSSS Due to a death in the family and an adjusted turn around business trip, I will be traveling the remainder of the week.
 
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

 

Francois Trahan, Dan Clifton and 300 closest friends at CFA dinner … Traveling the Remainder of the Week

Recently the annual CFA Forecast Dinner was conducted, marking the 10th anniversary of the event, all of which I have had the pleasure of attending. As an  active member of the CFA Institute and current board member of the CFA Dallas Fort Worth Society I look forward each year to this function. This year’s event included dinner and discussions from Francois Trahan of Wolf Trahan, and Dan Clifton of Strategas, moderated by Bloomberg’s very own Kathleen Hays.

While we plan on expanding more on this topic in our next newsletter here are the key take aways from the event:

Trahan:Francios Trahan

  1. 70% of our economy now explained by inflation
  2. China’s easing = America’s tightening
  3. US Investors, meet your new central banker–China
  4. South Korea and Australia are early cyclical tea leaves
  5. Energy’s win is US’s loss
  6. PBOC has locked their currency to ours, but is loosening
  7. Japan is the greatest short of a decade
  8. Domestic Retailers, Builders will show fatigue first and give signals to an US slowdown

Clifton:Dan Clifton

  1. March 1, 2013 sequestered tax issue key to politics
  2. Economist will lower GDP expectations in the next two weeks
  3. Defense spending will continue to slow, not investable
  4. G-20 controls 83% of world GDP
  5. 7 of top G-20 nations have had presidential election/changes in the last 18 months
  6. Political six-year itch
  7. Only thing that fell off the fiscal cliff was Republican support
  8. Payroll tax increases have yet to play out
  9. Food and energy which is 22% of GDP explains 80% of US growth

While overall the general theme was bearish, there was room for optimism. Given our skeptical stance this year the discussion was a little grease on the wheels, but not gasoline on the fire.

Kathleen Hays was a terrific moderator and impressed the crowd with her knowledge and several pointed questions that resulted in a seat squirming answers…Well Done Kathleen, I am a new fan.

Tonight I hop a plane and depart the state for the remainder of the week, but of course will be happily tethered electronically. I will be checking in on Friday before a holiday extended President’s day weekend to wish you a good weekend, and of course update.

Have a Great Day!

JK

214-706-4300
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Greek Relief deafened by the Pain in Spain

The weekend elections in Greece provided for the best possible results for Greece to stay in the Euro, (some candidates were adamant that an immediate break was necessary) and while our Asian market friends applauded in relief, the good feeling was gone before the rest of the world could wake.

Spain 10 year government bond yields have once again jumped over 7%, a so-called threshold rate for ongoing operations by a government. We have a detailed analysis on this in our upcoming Newsletter, currently under production but in the interim have included this chart from Bloomberg.

As a follow up from our prior post the PGA’s US Open garnered an american as the winner, but in true small world fashion, the leaderboard was stacked with half of the top 10 players from International locations.

For those curious, our char broiled out-of-state family destination is just fine, however there is a VERY strong contingency of ongoing firefighters, who at present have 60% of the fires under control, all of which are well north of our location.

Have a Great Day!

JK

214-706-4300   www.jkfinancialinc.com