Tag Archives: BLS

USA Employment Update and Consumer Analysis – NICE!

Consumers are the ultimate driver of an Economy, especially the US economy. By most estimates, the consumer and his/her spending makes up over 66% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Production) a broad measure of economic health.

Here is an interesting analysis of the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) most recent monthly Employment Report … mentioned on our “Break In”  of our Friday post.

Employed Consumer

The highest, most blunt view of employment is the Unemployment rate, usually figured in % total unemployed.

At 4.4%, the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate many, including ourselves thought maybe possible via post great recession!

The little Economy Engine that could!

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Take this job and shove it

Confident enough to walk away from the job? Sure looks like it.

Said another way, individuals have enough confidence in finding a new job, they are not afraid to walk from their current one.

A new high soon?

 

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Job Opening- aka JOLTS

Brought to the attention of many by our current Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, the job opening report also known as JOLTS report is showing clear evidence of job opportunities.

This chart helps explain why workers are not afraid to walk from their current job as well (prior chart.)

Jobs are abundant!

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Total Employment to Population

Certainly the Great Recession has had lingering effects. Focusing on the move upward since 2009, one can see the line heading in the correct direction, possibly giving confidence to those above who are leaving their current job.

Bottom line, a more confident, job opportunistic consumer economy! 

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Full Circle Now- Higher Spending? Higher GDP?

Going back to our original statement, with so much tailwind for the consumer coming from the employment of the US Economy, it would not be a stretch to think higher spending is in the cards, and a better GDP!

NICE!!

Have a Great “Healthy Consumer Economy” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

41% of Meals are “Out of Home”

In a recent credit.com article that we were asked to write, during the research phase for the article, we stumbled on to some interesting facts from Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Spending Survey.

This from the article ….

What is not showing in the BLS graph is the breakdown of at home and away from home food. According to the same 2014 BLS report a whopping 41% of our TOTAL food costs are away from the home. This is a stunning number. Eating out is fun but rarely as healthy or as cost effective a way to spend your monthly income. Staying at home, planning in advance, eating healthy, and spending time with family or friends may be a great way to lower that bulging food budget.

YIKES !!!

BLS quartiles spending graph

We are including the full article in our Newsletter, which is in the works. My family hates this discovery  … the belts have been tightened .. financially and physically (for not eating out.) It’s not easy !

How much do you and your family eat out ? Might be more than you think !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Homeland … Millennial … Gen X … Baby Boomer … Silent Gen

Which one are you?

Themed Population BLS

Neat abbreviated stuff from the coming Q 3 Newsletter, which is in the works !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

Average Hourly Earnings … Most Important Item from Tomorrow’s Employment Report

Tomorrow, Friday Dec 5, 2014, one of the most popular monthly economic reports occurs.  While many may focus on the headline employment number, expected around mid 200k, the most important part of the report will highly likely go unnoticed, UNLESS it surprises, especially to the upside.

Average Hourly Earnings

Consumers drive our economy and the majority of consumers have had little wage growth in years.

This from the October 2014, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Avg Hourly 12-14

IF this part of the report is higher, as was in August…look for higher rates .. sooner, and good news for the Economy!

Fingers Crossed !!!

Have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

Flip Flop Not … What’s most important changes, frequently and fast !

If you have been following us long, you may notice we hone in on various items with sometimes excruciating  detail. Of late, interest rates may be an area you have become fatigued, but they are that important at the current time.

Not OCD, but reactive .. It changes

While it may seem at time we jump from one thing to another, we are bringing you the details of what is most important (high level as we never talk exact investments) at any given moment, in our opinion. CPI

Recent the CPI (consumer price index) or inflation gauge printed a hot number and caught our attention.

Here are a few cause and effects:

  • Head Fake (always a possibility)
  • The economy is on the mend and it is just right, Goldilocks
  • Higher interests rates: Headwinds for fixed income instruments  (mortgage, corporate, Treasury)
  • FOMC has to increase the taper speed and maybe increase rates at a faster pace
  • Commodities and  other tangible items accelerate in value
  • Pressure on Capital Markets

So while it may seem we jump around a bit, things change and importances do as well!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Some VERY Positive Economic News for you … USA all time high Employment

On Friday of last week (6-6-14) the Unemployment numbers were announced. The totals were 217k additional jobs, but several hurdles were achieved.

Great Economic Numbers

  • 217k May increase in Payroll surpassed our 2007 total USA employed individuals (Yeaa)
  • Fourth month in a row over 200k newly employed (first time since 1999 … 14 years Wow)
  • 51 Months to regain prior full employment (this is VERY long)

USA new high Employment (BLS WSJ)

Jobs loss and Peak BLS WSJ

Time it took to get to new high

Length To Return to Peak BLS

Notice how it appears each recession is taking longer and longer to recover full employment. We are not sure YET what this means, but it certainly has our attention and will garner future research.

We will take the two positive over the one negative any day.

Have a Great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS This does not change our view of frothy capital markets, only helpful for our puppy feet!

PSS Sorry for all the charts, but we thought they were helpful in showing our point.

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Inflation? Not yet….Social Security Recipients to Receive only a 1.7% Raise

The Social Security Administration has announced the cost of living adjustments for 2013, and with all the talk of inflation, some may be surprised to find that the increase was only 1.7%.  Here is a nice summary page from the Social Security Administration.

Most pension and income inflation related adjustments are based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) including those of the Social Security Administration. Here is an interesting summary from our friends at the Chartstore.com  and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Take a guess what two items have actually gone down in nominal price over the last two decades? And on that note, any idea which line item has increased the most over the last two decades?  See the chart for yourself, we find it interesting what areas are hot and what are not!

So there you have it, our clothes and washing machines cost us less today than twenty years ago, and for the most expensive item, filling up our tank. Good thing our cars drive farther and longer today than 20 years ago.

Have a Super Day!

JK

214-706-4300
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225