Consumers are the ultimate driver of an Economy, especially the US economy. By most estimates, the consumer and his/her spending makes up over 66% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Production) a broad measure of economic health.
Here is an interesting analysis of the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) most recent monthly Employment Report … mentioned on our “Break In” of our Friday post.
Employed Consumer
The highest, most blunt view of employment is the Unemployment rate, usually figured in % total unemployed.
At 4.4%, the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate many, including ourselves thought maybe possible via post great recession!
The little Economy Engine that could!
Take this job and shove it
Confident enough to walk away from the job? Sure looks like it.
Said another way, individuals have enough confidence in finding a new job, they are not afraid to walk from their current one.
A new high soon?
Job Opening- aka JOLTS
Brought to the attention of many by our current Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, the job opening report also known as JOLTS report is showing clear evidence of job opportunities.
This chart helps explain why workers are not afraid to walk from their current job as well (prior chart.)
Jobs are abundant!
Total Employment to Population
Certainly the Great Recession has had lingering effects. Focusing on the move upward since 2009, one can see the line heading in the correct direction, possibly giving confidence to those above who are leaving their current job.
Bottom line, a more confident, job opportunistic consumer economy!
Full Circle Now- Higher Spending? Higher GDP?
Going back to our original statement, with so much tailwind for the consumer coming from the employment of the US Economy, it would not be a stretch to think higher spending is in the cards, and a better GDP!
NICE!!
Have a Great “Healthy Consumer Economy” Monday!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Great Economic News – Why Some are Frowning?
On Friday, the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their regularly monthly employment report – this is the first report in some time where ….
Here is why some believe this!
Good Economic News = Bad News?
Last Friday, November 2, 2018 the BLS released their regular monthly employment report that showed terrific economic numbers.
A fantastic, total 3.7% unemployment rate.
In addition to the above Unemployment level, average hourly earnings were also released and they were up 3.1% year over year — breathing a much needed pay increase to many ….
Currently FOMC members are on record saying they will raise rates in December and three more times next year (2019).
The worry is an eventual inverted yield curve – which we have mentioned many times is a very good precursor to a recession!
By looking at this chart, we are far from an inverted yield curve at this time- leading us to believe this “Good News = Bad News” may be very unwarranted…
Now you know the rest of the story !
Have a Great “Good News is GOOD News” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents
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Posted in Economy, FOMC, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Political
Tagged BLS, Employment, FOMC, Inverted Yield Curve, Unemployment Rate