On Friday, August 6, 2021 the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released the prior monthly (July 2021) employment related report. It is worth noting these are preliminary and will be adjusted in future months, but usually major adjustments are not in the picture….
Bottom Line:
943k hires in the month of July … NICE
5.4% Unemployment Rate as of July …Getting there (lower is better of course)
10 Year Treasuries Took note
BLS Unemployment Report for July 2021
The following Chart from the BLS may look unenthusiastic at first glance….. but hold on!
With the DRAMATIC volatility from the past year, the longer term chart does not give a true recent view…. Let’s look a little closer …. Much Better!
In much the same vein as above, the year view of the Unemployment rate does not look like a big deal as can be seen by the next chart!
On second thought, again with a closer view….. NICE! (We want a downward trending chart when measuring Unemployment)
10 Year Treasuries Wake Up
A measure of future expected growth, after some wrong sided players (shorting the 10 year in expectation of much higher rates faster) blew up pushing yields possibly incorrectly lower….
A hedge fund reportedly lost $1.5 billion in a bond market short-squeeze as bets on rising rates turned sour
These Good Economic Numbers put yields on the move higher (far right of chart)!
Continued improvement would likely force the FOMC to slow asset purchases…. as discussed here much desired by many !
Have a Great “Good Economic News” and analysis Monday!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
JOLTS – Job Openings and Labor Turnover – Continued Openings – Very Tight Hiring Currently
Back in May of this year, we first took note (for this Economic Cycle) of the JOLTS data , a measure of Job Openings in the US Economy….At that time an all time high had been hit as measured by this chart again back from May 2021!
As an interesting side note, take notice of the yellow shaded area- this is the NBER Recession tracking (National Bureau of Economic Research) date of a recession… in May of 2021 we were still waiting for the NBER to state if the recession was over and the exact length…. NOT A GOOD measurement for investment as this was way old news even back in May of 2021! Ok digressing a little but thought it worth it…
JOLT Release as of August 13, 2021
Back in May we noted :
Here is last weeks reading…
Another 20% higher print…extrapolating our comments above, 20% harder on all points!
Note once again the yellow bar is gone and the tiny little recession call made by the NBER- again certainly NOT a timing issue i.e. If you wait for them to tell you the recession is over you will likely be left in the dust!
For all those hiring …. patience, this will like cure its self much like our Lumber clearing post here…. but not in as fast of time….
Looking for a job, you are in the drivers seat… remember, burn no bridges it’s a VERY small world, but you are in a great place… enjoy and best of luck!
Have a Great “Jolts” Updated Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents
Share this:
Like this:
Leave a comment
Posted in Economy, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged BLS, Employers, Job Opening and Labor Turnover, JOLTS, NBER