Tag Archives: Bonds

February 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our February 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

February 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Third In Back to Basics Series – “Debt Planning”

The third post of a neat (well we think so) new idea, series we discuss “Protection Planning” !

This series is a review of the basics, and will serve as somewhat of a semester study of the Financial Planning foundations all the way to more advanced topics later in the series…. We plan on a mid month release of each part and somewhere south of double digit parts…. possibly with a video added to each for additional insights…. thanks in advance for sharing with those who may find this series helpful….

In this Debt Planning section we cover from a high level …

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly Forms of Debt

Yes there are some debts that or ok, but there are also some that are very much sinners….

Review that Social Security Statement

In this annual reminder post, receiving a weekend email alert directly form the Social Security Administration our review was set in motion and a new post was born….

Happily as mentioned in the post, the SSA had updated the site and there are really neat new features such as a graph for delayed benefits and a neat spousal calculator.. Well done guys!

Please be sure to take 5 minutes and review that your hard earned earnings are being credited to your Social Security Benefit/Number!

Capital Market Comments

Interest Rates Jump Ahead of Fed – Short Term Pressure on Bonds Long Term Gain

While this post concerning how the bond markets, more specifically the two year and ten year treasuries front run the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) we also want to remind that such movement, especially seen in the two year treasury puts pressure (lowers) on the value of the bond but also ups the income from the bond……

So initial headwind, and eventual tail wind…yay

Re-Review “The Anatomy of a Slowdown/Recession” the Snap Back

With market jitters creating headlines and lower values, in this post we reviewed our luckily timed lead article in our Q 1 2022 Newsletter article, called the “Anatomy of a Slowdown”

The main purpose of the article and the re-run is to remind everyone INCLUDING OURSELVES, slowdowns (markets dropping in value) do occur, and while we don’t want them to, they do anyway!

In this post, we review three very large what we coined snap backs…. large rallies of 5%-to over 10% which are for some reason very confusing during slow down times and also tend to totally ignore headlines…

No idea for sure WHY they happen, just know they do … thought worth reminding as some great questions came in on the subject.

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of March! Going fast this year!!!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

October 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our October 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

BREAK IN – HONORED BY D MAGAZINE NOMINATION

Important Disclosure

October 2021 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Cell Text Spam and Calls

With the handy, cell phone which is almost like carrying around a powerful computer, replacing our land lines, in this post we remind all to be very careful in which calls you answer and most importantly clicking on a hot link of a text you may have received on you cell… DO NOT BITE!

Here is an example of a very dangerous spam text – do not click on that hotlink as you will be directed to a bad place that may cause your cell harm…

Grant Williams Podcast with Sam Zell

A new found favorite way of continued learning and education, frequently while jogging or walking, in this post, a review of a fantastic hour long podcast with Sam Zell via the Grant Williams Podcast series…

Favorite Notes:

Staying Power is the name of the game… No surprises!

Real money by long term holdings, be patient.

Will you slow down?  People ask me that all the time…”Slow down from what…I like what I do,”

Capital Market Comments

Bonds, Interest Rate Headwind Reminders

In 2018 as interest rates smartly began rising, we reminded folks, those especially with more conservative allocations (larger allocations to bonds) that the immediate effect of higher interest rates are a slight headwind to bond portfolios. For the record, they are big headwinds to very long dated bond portfolios i.e. 30 years, which is why we stay away from such portfolios…

Fast forward to the beginning of the year and very recently, we felt the need to remind again here. The fantastic news is that with shorter dated portfolios as mentioned above, this headwind turns into money in our pockets in the form of higher income as rates again smartly rise on the expectation of greater economic growth prospects.

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of November!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Bonds and Interest Rate Movement Analysis/Reminder, Bonds are the Voice of Reason Portion of Portfolio’s, Friend and Foe

Almost every portfolio needs some type of bond investment. Bonds cushion movements during volatile times, kick off regular interest payments usually very frequently and act as a foundation for the entire portfolio.

Bonds are the voice of reason in our portfolios… Much like the friend you had that always calmly mentioned the risk associated with some youthful action that upon second thought was not a good idea…

While a cushion and form of stability during bad times, during higher interest rate times, they act as a small headwind.

Bonds and Interest Rates – Tug of War

As interest rates move up, bonds face a bit of a headwind in the short term, but eventually they catch up to the new higher prevailing interest rate through either maturity in the form of individual holdings or run off in Mutual Fund Holdings.

The following chart show a good example of rates down, bonds up and then the change of rates up and bonds down a bit…

Green = Rates Red=Bond Fund

Just a friendly reminder of short term headwinds by our must have friend, the bond!

Have a Great “Bond v Interest Rates” Reminder Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Why almost EVERYONE needs Bonds in their Portfolios

In true Tortoise and the Hare like fashion from the old school fable …..rabbit-2414356__480

There’s a tug-of-war that goes on between the turtle and the hare…..

We all know the ending, although some endings have changed over the years, but stay with us for just a second, as we bring a financial parallel to our fable.

In our interesting story, bonds are the Tortoise and the Hare are Equities/stocks.

Why most need Tortoise/Bonds in their portfoliosturtle-863336__480

Bonds are truly like the Tortoise as they’re more slow running, BUT also importantly, slow to lose value. 

Equities/stocks carry Hare like returns that generally, over the longer term are faster,  but in true Hare like fashion, can get really sidetracked at times (think October – December of 2018 Amateur hour time.)

Here is the Great News in our Story – You can do both!

The good news about investing, unlike the fable is that you don’t just have to be one or the other, but you can mix.

We would argue that mature (larger or for more mature folks) portfolios need a Tortoise for stability during bad times as well as the yummy income that bonds produce!

As the portfolio grows or the income needs rise, more Tortoise may be needed.

Early portfolios that have heavy contributions can frequently be all Hare/Equities/Stocks as the contributions making up a great percentage of the portfolio act like a stabilizing Tortoise.

Normal progressions may be 75% Hare, then 50% then 40% and 25% or less Hare are frequently ok …. with the remaining portions being Tortoise of course….

One of our favorites are 50/50 Hare to Tortoise ….

Another great part of having both in a portfolio is they tend to offset themselves naturally during bad times – when Hare/Equity/Stocks get smacked, almost inevitably Tortoise/Bonds have a field day – multiple reasons such as interest rates dropping when Equities rise and visa versa, as well as a Tortoise safe haven…

There are always unique situations such as all Tortoise due to immediate need or just dislike of volatility and all Hare when there are no needs for the future.

Look for a greater depth information in our coming Newsletter with possible follow up items and details here.

Needless to say we are fond of both the Hare and Tortoise.

Thanks for accommodating our juvenile humor!

Have a Great “Tortoise and the Hare” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

Q 4 2018 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 4 2018 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

BREAK IN – Save the date for the Holiday Party

November 17th – Saturday before Thanksgiving – Dallas Athletic Club from 3-5 pm

DAC

Let’s get going!

Q 4 2018 Newsletter

And here is your review!

Capital Market Talk

Earnings and Markets Eventually Converge

In this hugely in depth article, first we discuss the effect of earnings eventually driving capital markets, but disconnects can occur. It can even be a good thing for Capital Markets to WAY underperform earnings, as they are this year because in brings valuations back in line.

Here is the key graph

7-13-18 EPS Growth and Mkt Growth 10 year avg

Higher Rates, a Short Term Headwind, Eventually a Tailwind

With sustained lower rates over the last decade, memories have faded on the tugging headwinds that higher rates have – IN THE SHORT TERM – on the mandatory safety asset class of bonds.

Higher rates are a great thing as Bonds/Fixed Income Assets have a place for almost all investors due to their safety and liquidity.

Once the headwinds subside our fixed income investments will have ridden the yield curve higher and begin paying more income in the form of yield – into our pockets – Finally!
bond index V Interest Rates

Too High of Rates Can Create Trouble

Too high of rates or an overshoot CAN create trouble … or a recession…

Our friends at JPMorgan – historically show that rate is about 5% – yea FIVE percent –

We disagree and think a lower level may now be this tipping point, due to the decade low interest rate level we have just experienced-

Current at two percent, we have a long way to go before getting too antsy
JPMorgan Rate Level for Slowdown

Inverted Yield Curve Update

So far to good- no inversion yet!
9-28-18 90 day to 10 year Inverted Curve status

Financial Planning

This series of articles came out of no where and in like domino fashion, once one was done the next took form and fell into place-

PLUP graph

App of the Quarter – Hardware

Our editor took the fancy picture out due to copyright fears, but our experience with the Firestick has been exceptional – Here are the highlights of our findings

  • Great Savings compared to just full service in many cases
  • Does not take as much internet speed as we thought
  • Bring your home on the road
  • Multiple devices used at once
  • Cuts back on duplicated services
  • Allows cherry picking services

Enjoy the fall –

See Ya next Year – Wow 2019 here we come!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

The Short Term Inverse Relationship Between Rates and Bonds

After over a decade of not only lowering of rates, but SUPER low, interest rates, it is no wonder we have forgotten the short term relationship of bonds and interest rates.

Inverse Buddies

Over the short term, when rates are going down bonds go up and just the opposite as rates are increased. Pair that with extremely low – zero – rates and the gradual increase in rates, which causes a natural headwind has caught many by surprise, especially after over a decade of lowered and low rates.

bond index V Interest Rates

Ok, so it is a little busy – but it directly shows our point – as rates go down, bonds go up and then as rates go up bonds down. This is a short term phenomenon as once rates stabilize, bonds do as well.

We are happily welcoming higher rates as we think they are much needed – even though they present headwinds for a much needed safe asset class, Bonds – in the SHORT term!

Have a Great “Rate Bond Buddy” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

March 2014 Financial Planning Money Saving Tip, Economic, Financial Review (Video) FINALLY

Welcome to our monthly review, which includes a video for further clarity and a lighter touch to the world of finance. At the beginning of this year we also added a special financial planning monthly tip to break up the monotony. Let’s get started.

BREAK IN: THIS VIDEO COMMENCES WITH AN ALL NEW AUDIO SYSTEM, SUCH THE DELAY,  WE ENCOURAGE YOU TO TAKE A MOMENT TO WATCH/LISTEN AT YOUR CONVENIENCE !

 Click here if you cannot see the video

Here for Vimeo

 

Cell Phone Pricing Wars Means Money In Your Pocket

This months financial planning tip came by accident from our own personal experience. Earlier this year the big two cell phone carriers commenced in a pricing war. Our discovery, originally from an investor standpoint, soon turned consumer. After multiple confirmations other than just ourselves, we feel certain we are on to something.Price War

The trick of this discovery is  you must log into your carrier and review your current plan. So far by pointing this out we have helped with several thousand dollars of savings.  Next time you pay your bill, take 30 extra seconds and click on your current plan, you may find significant saving are available.

Taxes – The Toughest Season in A Decade

This years taxes are the perfect storm for the following reasons.

  1. Tax payer relief act has sunset, diminishing many relief items.
  2. Phase Outs (restrictions of tax write-offs) are making for higher taxes due.
  3. AMT (alternative minimum tax) is making it’s presence known.
  4. Basis reconciliation is still troubling.Income Tax

This year, do not feel bad if your taxes are greater than years past and it is taking longer. The entire financial community has been slowed by this year’s tax season.

Market and Economic update

As mentioned in our cover letter and Q 2 2014 Newsletter, both on the presses and cyber ramp currently, the capital markets have gone no where so far this year. Bonds, the lumbering giants of safety have been the real winner in March as well as through the first quarter of the year.

10 Year Treasury W Trendline 4-8-14

 

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Earnings Update … Bond V Stock Guys … Travels Ahead …

It’s about the bottom of the second inning of the 90 day treadmill we call earnings season, and so far it looks pretty good. Managers are executing well, given the continued slow growth economy that continues.

Earnings Update, Bonds not Listening

While earnings as mentioned above in our opening are doing ok, bonds are telling a more conservative story. Lower interest rates, higher bond prices infer a slowing. With a very weak recent non-farm payroll number (75k actual versus 175k expected) and a few weaker China economic numbers, the bond guys are … at least at this point (pretty short-term, so maybe just a glitch, but we are watching) leaning towards a slower future. The good news is time will let us know who is correct.

10 Year Treasury 1-23-14

Travels Ahead

Looking into the next several weeks, the weekend’s look rather full as the calendar shows travels ahead. This weekend in fact, is packed full of fun with sports, several meetings, and some rest time with the family before the travels ensue.

Have a Great Weekend and a Super Friday!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Bonds Can Lose Money….Out for the rest of the week

Over the most recent weekend during several family, client, and friend gatherings, I had the opportunity to visit several times about investing….a recurring theme kept happening, such the article.

Bonds Can Lose Money

Multiple times over the weekend the subject of bonds not losing money arose. While there are few certainties in investing, if you hold a long-term bond AND interest rates rise, YOU WILL LOSE MONEY IF YOU SELL EARLY….Who really wants to lock in a 30 year bond at 3% today ?

These topics come up as everyone is beginning to search/stretch/reach for yield. DO NOT DO IT! It does not end well.stretch for money

We have no idea when exactly rates will rise or even if they will. If rates rise, and as an investor you are stretching for yield, you will very likely be hurt. When the music stops there may be a fight for the exits.

Safer Investing in Bonds Today

Here are a few keys to help keep losses to a minimum if rates rise. Even in this scenario, losses may occur, although they should be minimal.

  1. Stay in shorter terms (1-5 years, 7-10 MAX)
  2. Favor higher quality over lower
  3. Diversify (Corporate, Muni, Foreign)

On the Road Again

With a flight out tonight, I find myself out of the state and happily, lightly tethered via electronics. I will be back in the saddle in full force next Monday!

Have a great Day and rest of your week!

John Kvale

214-706-4300

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225