As a kid, with a firm 9 PM bedtime, one of the last shows I could grab before hitting the sack each night was a cop show … maybe showing my age, remember was a kid … Hill Street Blues, each show started out with the chief giving a summary of the day and passed events ….. and his words every show as he released his men to the streets were …
“Let’s be careful out there!”
Reviewing Anatomy of a Slowdown again
Being creatures of habit … recency bias seeps into so much of our thinking … 2020 was just barely a double digit day retreat and Capital Markets of 2018 just barely a double digit month retreat.
Many may have forgotten what a normal slowdown looks like.
Not trying to beat us over the head or a dead horse, however that goes …. More normal economic slowdown‘s as mentioned here and here just to name a few mentions (ok dead horse again) take somewhere between nine month and eighteen months a.k.a. 2007 – 2009 financial and 2000 dot com bust followed by a slow down, rather than just the most recent quarters we’ve experienced.
Big bounces are part of a slowdown… much bigger bounces than normal growth appreciations during Growth/Bull times …
Yep… 19.37% and 22.93% bounces….
A slow down, the R word – (Recession), or a growth absence, patience is a virtue …
In true let’s be careful out there fashion, we haven’t forgotten the umbrella and maybe it will not rain, but we definitely have the umbrella just in case….
Bottom line, stay away from extreme headlines of “It’s all clear” and the other “It’s all doom and gloom”, we will get through this, but let’s be careful out there and have our patience hats on too!
Have a Great “Anatomy of a Slowdown Refresher” Day!
Be Careful out there too!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth