Tag Archives: Bureau Of Labor Statistics

CPI – Consumer Price Index Survey Weights – C/O Another New Fantastic Research Service … Pew Research Organization

Posted on March 23, 2022 by | Leave a comment

With a tremendous amount of attention being paid to the Bureau of Labor Statistics CPI Report (Consumer Price Index), we set off as part of our research to find an easy explanation of the breakdown of the index.

As a reminder the CPI index is a measure of inflation, hence the increase rhetoric not only in the public domain, but here as well, as we have spoken about it multiple times via analysis.

Back to the analysis, we found tons of information about the make up of the aforementioned CPI index, and a 100 plus items that make it up, but oddly it took us some time to find the true easy breakdown in larger macro elements of the CPI index.

Great news, a new approved non-copyright use from a fantastic new research service called Pew Research has been discovered. With approval from their public relations folks, we are happy to finally show you this wonderful graph that breaks the CPI index down into very easy and visually friendly context.

We will be referring back to this graph frequently, as some of our future commentary will be about this CPI index, and what it may look like in the future and what it means from a Federal Reserve/FOMC standpoint.

Here is the Pew Research Article

Have a Great “CPI Index Simplified” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

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Posted in Economy, FOMC, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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CPI (Consumer Price Index) Prints 6.8% Year over Year Increase, Quick Analysis on Likely Peak … Friday

Posted on December 10, 2021 by | Leave a comment

About three hours ago, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released their November 2021 report on CPI (Consumer Price Index) one of the broadest measures of Inflation…

If you have noticed your grocery basket smaller and more expensive, this is why….

This report has a ton of factors in it, as can be seen at the top of the chart from the BLS report, below….

The year over year print was 6.8% increase!

A very large portion of the CPI is Energy…

Have you noticed a LOWER bill to fill your tank lately?

The BLS report is lagging, below is a current Oil price, which is over 10% LOWER currently… hence the cheaper refills…

Very likely peak in CPI as measured by the BLS, next month which will be released in early January, we will take a peak and keep you updated…

Ok, another slightly heavy Friday, BUT the FOMC is watching this very closely and making decisions based on this increase, which may be peaking/lagging already…. Let’s stay tuned!

Have a Great “Friday CPI Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

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Posted in Economy, Forecast, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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JOLTS – Job Opening Measurement ALL TIME Highs – Great News for Job Seekers, Tough News for Employers

Posted on May 17, 2021 by | Leave a comment

Over the last two weeks during the Mauldin SIC conference (which we are still digesting), multiple speakers mentioned the Jolts Index -Job Openings Labor Turnover – A Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) that measures job openings.

Back in August of 2020, here we first took note of the movement in the Index as it made a turn at the bottom of this chart and actually surprised to the upside.

JOLTS Index Today

Fast forward to today and noting what the Mauldin speakers featured, this Index is at an ALL TIME high!

Key Takeaways

  • Tons of Jobs Available
  • Job Seekers Market
  • Tough on Employers
  • Could lead to higher wages (Inflation?)

Have a Great “JOLTS Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

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Posted in Economy, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Retirement Planning

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What Happens When You Get A Decidedly Positive Economic Reading, While Expecting Negative?

Posted on June 8, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Last Friday, June 5, 2020 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its regularly schedule monthly report of hiring and firing report nicked name “The Employment Situation”

Closely followed as a broad measure of the health of the economy and the consumer, experts (so called) from all ports of finance (Economist, bankers, investment bankers, brokers) tally their estimates of what the monthly reading will be.

In all fairness, due to bread crumbs from other reports, usually the forecasts are very close and often garner a quick glance and a carry on to other items attention span.

Fridays expectations were for a loss of just over 7 million folks.

Oops – What Happens When You Miss Big?

With an expectation of ( -7 million) more job losses and announcement of +2.5 million gains, caught Market Participants WAY off guard…

6-5-20 Nonfarmpayroll surprise

Interest Rates took note as well… which is very logical, as rates go up as economic conditions expand…

6-5-20 Us 10 year treasury

Likely ahead of ourselves a bit, but heck it is a start….

Bumps most certainly still ahead… but still a start…

Have a Great “Why We Don’t Forecast Much” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

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Posted in Economy, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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Three Economic Charts that should make Us all Feel Good – 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Posted on June 4, 2018 by | Leave a comment

Post great recession, the Unemployment rate went into double digits … +10% …. Many including us thought the new natural level of unemployment may be near 6% – prior to the great recession most believed 4% would be the all time low…

3.8% Unemployment Rate

The regular monthly Employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Friday, June 1 that the Unemployment rate hit 3.8% — Yes 3.8%!

Wow….

 

6-3-18 Unemployment Rate Fred

Naysayers would say this will put pressure on wages, pushing up the CPI – Consumer Price Index – indirectly forcing the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to raise rates fast — possible inducing an inverted yield curve…. leading to a recession… got that… sorry for the long domino effect– but this is how Wall Street thinks… perception can become reality… Let’s check the CPI …

6-3-18 CPI St Louis Fred

The CPI looks fine and has not moved up too much.  Here is a possible reason why…

Jolts – Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey

5-8-18 JOLTS Fred

Essentially this is a relatively new statistic that many follow included the FOMC, that shows what the US Economy is producing in the form of jobs…. an increase in this chart means more jobs are available…

More Employment, but more Jobs… No Inflation —

Nice…

Have a Great “Lower Unemployment” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

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Posted in Economy, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Political

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41% of Meals are “Out of Home”

Posted on March 28, 2016 by | Leave a comment

In a recent credit.com article that we were asked to write, during the research phase for the article, we stumbled on to some interesting facts from Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Spending Survey.

This from the article ….

What is not showing in the BLS graph is the breakdown of at home and away from home food. According to the same 2014 BLS report a whopping 41% of our TOTAL food costs are away from the home. This is a stunning number. Eating out is fun but rarely as healthy or as cost effective a way to spend your monthly income. Staying at home, planning in advance, eating healthy, and spending time with family or friends may be a great way to lower that bulging food budget.

YIKES !!!

BLS quartiles spending graph

We are including the full article in our Newsletter, which is in the works. My family hates this discovery  … the belts have been tightened .. financially and physically (for not eating out.) It’s not easy !

How much do you and your family eat out ? Might be more than you think !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

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Posted in General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning

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Average Hourly Earnings … Most Important Item from Tomorrow’s Employment Report

Posted on December 4, 2014 by | 1 comment

Tomorrow, Friday Dec 5, 2014, one of the most popular monthly economic reports occurs.  While many may focus on the headline employment number, expected around mid 200k, the most important part of the report will highly likely go unnoticed, UNLESS it surprises, especially to the upside.

Average Hourly Earnings

Consumers drive our economy and the majority of consumers have had little wage growth in years.

This from the October 2014, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Avg Hourly 12-14

IF this part of the report is higher, as was in August…look for higher rates .. sooner, and good news for the Economy!

Fingers Crossed !!!

Have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

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Posted in Economy, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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