Tag Archives: Bureau Of Labor Statistics

What Happens When You Get A Decidedly Positive Economic Reading, While Expecting Negative?

Last Friday, June 5, 2020 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its regularly schedule monthly report of hiring and firing report nicked name “The Employment Situation”

Closely followed as a broad measure of the health of the economy and the consumer, experts (so called) from all ports of finance (Economist, bankers, investment bankers, brokers) tally their estimates of what the monthly reading will be.

In all fairness, due to bread crumbs from other reports, usually the forecasts are very close and often garner a quick glance and a carry on to other items attention span.

Fridays expectations were for a loss of just over 7 million folks.

Oops – What Happens When You Miss Big?

With an expectation of ( -7 million) more job losses and announcement of +2.5 million gains, caught Market Participants WAY off guard…

6-5-20 Nonfarmpayroll surprise

Interest Rates took note as well… which is very logical, as rates go up as economic conditions expand…

6-5-20 Us 10 year treasury

Likely ahead of ourselves a bit, but heck it is a start….

Bumps most certainly still ahead… but still a start…

Have a Great “Why We Don’t Forecast Much” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Three Economic Charts that should make Us all Feel Good – 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Post great recession, the Unemployment rate went into double digits … +10% …. Many including us thought the new natural level of unemployment may be near 6% – prior to the great recession most believed 4% would be the all time low…

3.8% Unemployment Rate

The regular monthly Employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Friday, June 1 that the Unemployment rate hit 3.8% — Yes 3.8%!

Wow….

 

6-3-18 Unemployment Rate Fred

Naysayers would say this will put pressure on wages, pushing up the CPI – Consumer Price Index – indirectly forcing the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to raise rates fast — possible inducing an inverted yield curve…. leading to a recession… got that… sorry for the long domino effect– but this is how Wall Street thinks… perception can become reality… Let’s check the CPI …

6-3-18 CPI St Louis Fred

The CPI looks fine and has not moved up too much.  Here is a possible reason why…

Jolts – Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey

5-8-18 JOLTS Fred

Essentially this is a relatively new statistic that many follow included the FOMC, that shows what the US Economy is producing in the form of jobs…. an increase in this chart means more jobs are available…

More Employment, but more Jobs… No Inflation —

Nice…

Have a Great “Lower Unemployment” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

41% of Meals are “Out of Home”

In a recent credit.com article that we were asked to write, during the research phase for the article, we stumbled on to some interesting facts from Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Spending Survey.

This from the article ….

What is not showing in the BLS graph is the breakdown of at home and away from home food. According to the same 2014 BLS report a whopping 41% of our TOTAL food costs are away from the home. This is a stunning number. Eating out is fun but rarely as healthy or as cost effective a way to spend your monthly income. Staying at home, planning in advance, eating healthy, and spending time with family or friends may be a great way to lower that bulging food budget.

YIKES !!!

BLS quartiles spending graph

We are including the full article in our Newsletter, which is in the works. My family hates this discovery  … the belts have been tightened .. financially and physically (for not eating out.) It’s not easy !

How much do you and your family eat out ? Might be more than you think !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Average Hourly Earnings … Most Important Item from Tomorrow’s Employment Report

Tomorrow, Friday Dec 5, 2014, one of the most popular monthly economic reports occurs.  While many may focus on the headline employment number, expected around mid 200k, the most important part of the report will highly likely go unnoticed, UNLESS it surprises, especially to the upside.

Average Hourly Earnings

Consumers drive our economy and the majority of consumers have had little wage growth in years.

This from the October 2014, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Avg Hourly 12-14

IF this part of the report is higher, as was in August…look for higher rates .. sooner, and good news for the Economy!

Fingers Crossed !!!

Have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225