Tag Archives: CFA

May 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our May 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

May – 2020 Video (YouTube)


Financial Planning Tip  –

Mortgage Rates

Looking at the chart of the 10 year treasury, we can see rates have finally settled and we are hearing the volume of lenders overflow has calmed as well. While the 10 year is not an exact predictor of Mortgage Rates it is loosely correlated.

Now may be a good time to check your Mortgage Rate and consider refinancing!

Here is one of our favorite and most popular posts on the items to remember when you are getting a mortgage and especially when you refinance.

5-29-20 10 year us treasury

The Virtual Pivot

In true making Lemonade from Lemons fashion, not only have we been able to access the John Mauldin event, with over forty hours of speakers, but a National CFA(Chartered Financial Analyst) event and several others were completed virtually.

We have so much awesome information to share in the coming weeks…. oddly, that we would have not had access to if they had been held live!

Looking forward to sharing…. tons if info!!

Capital Market Comments – They Came Out!

The Look Through Continues

With current earnings being less than stellar, you may ask why the markets are clawing their way back?

It does appear investors are looking through the valley and attempting to price in what a recovery may look like.

The Tuesday after Memorial Day offered multiple openings across the country…. Wall Street wiped its brow as people came out!

Expect bumps, and headline shocks, both positive and negative … but that’s why we are happily conservative investors at heart!

5-29-20 YTD SP 500 Small Cap International

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of June!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.

Drink from a Fire Hydrant of CEO’s and Company Executives – Friday

We were happy to receive our invitation to a local gathering co-sponsored by the CFA Organization (Chartered Financial Analyst) – an organization that I was president of a few years ago and maintain contacts and membership.

Wednesday and Thursday of this week, in rapid fire form, over 100 CEO’s and C level executives from all over the country, presented their company to groups of folks for a better understanding and possible investment.img_5476

We cherish this event every year, as it gives us a great candid feel for what’s going on in the economy and we get to meet a wide variety managers in different industries…..

So here’s a quick review:


The energy companies that we sat in on where mellow, but longer-term positive,  and much discussion about lower debt, and future higher prices, with lots of hedging as topics. Overall the energy executives felt good long-term but we’re less certain in the very shorter term. Cautiously positive, but managing very well.

Listening to a insurance company that deals with high risk properties – high risk because they’re on one of the eastern shores that is the recipient of bad weather, tactics for maximizing revenues, without passing higher expenses on to their customers, due to inelastic customers, were the topic as well as  fingers crossed for no major bad weather.

The first days keynote speaker for lunch was fantastic:img_5467

“How Government Policy Drives Stock Market Returns” was the title of his presentation.

His conclusion, Politics affect Capital Markets but it’s not sustaining,  what truly affects Capital Markets longer term is policy. We could not agree more … when new rules are instituted, that’s when talk becomes action and you have a definitive line in the sand.

Maybe something we should all remember as we enter a Presidential Election in the coming year!

On Thursday a delightful visit with the CEO of a local steel company, her thoughts on policies, tariffs which surprisingly were somewhat muted. Tariffs did not seem to bother her, but a recession would not be welcomed. Cyclical concerns in a very cyclical industry and defense of such cycles were very well presented.

The lunch speaker of the second day was also very interesting and had two main points:

Jerome Powell and China


This chart was interesting and may make future discussions, the gist is that when rates have been lowered while an inverted yield curve occurs, it deters the recession… the recession occurs when raising DURING the inversion ….. Hmmmmm ….first time we have heard this, but it peaked our interest….

Regarding China… In a nutshell he felt like China would agree to a multiple part Tariff contract and this was someway a necessity due to China’s current economic situation, and also most politicians stance against China and their tariffs, offering no option for relief.

In conclusion, from a very high-level, everyone was well aware that this economy is not growing extremely fast, but it’s still growing. Many shared our thoughts that we may have a soft recession but a very hard recession is likely not in the cards. Very few touch the political landscape and for the most part we’re generally positive.

Ahhhh…. a HEAVY Friday for you huh ?

Apologies, but we have a short week next week and wanted to get this to you as we know you were hanging on the edge of your chair waiting…. HAHA … kidding of course, recall this is a working Diary for us as well….

Have a Great “Executive Updated” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.

Dinner with Grant, Rosenblum, Koesterich and Kathleen Hayes

Last night the annual CFA Forecast Dinner occurred and after missing last year’s for the first time EVER, it was great to be back on track.

Jim Grantjames_grant

Famous for his regular newsletter called “Grant’s Interest Rate Observer

Describing himself as

…an independent, value-oriented contrary minded….

Interest rates were higher in the great Depression than they are today!

Bonds/rates may have one last gasp here and then be very careful, no margin of safety.

My favorite two quotes from Grant!

Russ Koesterich Chief Strategist of BlakRockRuss Koesterich

My first meeting of Russ and his little firm, BlackRock (One of largest Money Management Firms in the world)

With a team just back from Saudi, “They way overshot” according to Russ and do not know why oil prices are so low. The native Saudi’s that Russ’s team met with would prefer HIGHER oil prices.

Harvey Rosenblum, Former Dallas Fed Official, now SMU Professor

Now the third or fourth time to visit with Rosenblum, after his departure from the Dallas FED he speaks a bit more freely.

QE, has dramatically extended and slowed the recovery  process.

“Since I am no longer at the FED and do not have to report my holdings every quarter, I am about to buy Gold …. inflation is kindling” Rosenblum chimed.


Kathleen Hayes the ModeratorKathleen Hayes

Bloomberg is one our favorite resources for information. Kathleen has a radio show weekdays, mid morning until early afternoon. Her straight forward, nicely handled moderator title for the event was perfect.

Once again a wonderful event, with great dialogue. Thanks to all who participated.

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS I am in the sky, headed West to watch our own, “Hollywood .. AKA the Brain” show his stuff … Returning Friday night !

PSS Digital diary !

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225




Findings from multiple CEO/CFO interactions … Ahh … that explains it

Last Wednesday at the Southwest Investors Conference, a CFA related event, I was able to interact with dozens off CEO/CFO’s.

Three Part Advisors Southwest Ideas ConferenceSouthwest Ideas Investor Conference

Getting an invitation to this annual event is always a treat. While the week before Thanksgiving is busy, this event is time well utilized.

With over 70 public company CEO/CFO a theme did resonate:

  • There was a great recession, 07-09 that hit every company in every industry
  • This recovery has been slower than normal and in most cases we are back to only about 05-06 levels
  • The future is positive, but guarded and tentative
  • Careful growth and decision making over reckless “pedal to metal” acceleration
  • With such delicate growth, outside influences could throw us back into a slowdown easily

My ahh, haa moment of clarity came after about the sixth visit of company executives.

  1. Executives came to the edge and looked over in 07-09, as such they refortified their companies
  2. Growth has been so slow that caution remains
  3. Executives are ready for a slowdown, should it come again (this is huge and comforting)

Reflecting after this wonderful event, these company executives totally explain the lower hiring, slow wage growth, and timid expectations we are seeing in macro economic reports.

This is not a bad thing, safe over sorry ..

Have a good day !

John Kvale
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225 

The Survey Says ……

For those like myself who remember the original Bob Barker Price is Right, there is a new, fresh off the press, CFA Survey. In Price is Right format, The Survey Says …

CFA Professional Investors Survey

Yesterday the results of a global professional investor survey in which Donald and I were a part, were released. We will go into greater detail in non-Friday coming weeks and possibly our next newsletter. Here are three favorite charts.

 Professionals across the board expects the Global Economy to Grow! (Below)2014 CFA Global Growth

They all expect their own country to grow the best….home biased ?? (Below) 

Notice how each regions home country has the highest chart. At least everyone is confident in their own country … maybe too confident, for sure homeward biased!

2014 CFA Equity Growth

Trust is not too high?? (Below)

2014 CFA Integrity

This last chart is most puzzling as it indicates only a lukewarm amount of trust. As professional investors we are trained to be skeptical, but not this much.  Trust but verify???

Have a Happy Friday and a Good Weekend!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

PS Am I the only one having trouble catching this fast-moving/shortened holiday season.. Wow ????

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

NAPFA – National Association Of Personal Financial Advisors – Why We joined .. FEE ONLY CLARITY

Last month we joined an association called NAPFA, short for National Association of Personal Financial Advisors.

Why we joined NAPFA

Just under a decade ago we made the decision to halt any and all commission revenue for our firm. Our business model was, and still is such, that we wereNewNAPFALogoGIF not using commissioned based products, and in our view wanted to fully align ourselves with clients. The model is called “Fee Only” and that is how we operate today.

NAPFA is very clear in their membership and their mission, which is “Fee Only.” As a long time and continued CFP (Certified Financial Planner) there has been some blurring of the “Fee Only” title lately, such our joining of NAFPA. While we could have joined NAPFA ten years ago, we did not feel the urgency until late. We now wished we would have sooner!

So Far Extremely Impressed by NAPFA

The welcome packet (geared for advisory firms such as our selves), attendance to detail for their mission statement to the public and service, has impressed us thus far. We suspect, we are rather long in the tooth (read…old) for a new member of NAPFA, but we are happy to be a member and thoroughly impressed.

For those long time clients, you may be asking … “Why we did we do this and why are we saying it?”   Just this week we ran into a decade long relationship that did not completely understand our model …. Good timing!

Entrance process and increased education requirements

To join we were mandated a detailed financial sample plan and to continue as a member we up our CE mandates from 30 hours every two years to 60.   All of which we are happy to do.

We see NAPFA as a complimentary organization that will bring addition clarity to the crazy world of finance we live and work in, not a replacement to the CFP or CFA.

If you see a NAPFA logo on our website or hear us discuss a NAPFA meeting, research paper, or other information, now you know….. The rest of the story!

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Out at event…Diversification Wins Again as Even the Pro’s Don’t Know about Gold

Today most of the day, I will be out of the office at a group client event, but of course happily tethered via technology and protected by our team here in Texas and in San Diego.

Gold and Other Commodities Tumble

A recent CFA poll of over 1000 professional investors leaves no doubt that no one really knows why the sudden tumble has occurred. (See Poll Below with links)

Diversification again has lead to safety!  Never go “all in” in today’s world!

Have a Great Day and a Super Weekend!

John Kvale

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

CFA Poll On Commodities

  • What is the primary factor bringing the price of gold to its recent sell-off level of $1,400?
    Many large holders have announced their intent to sell  29.95%
    Another factor not identified above  28.96%
    Key technical barriers were breached  17.82%
    Inflation fears are subsiding  16.25%
    Lower uncertainty in the geopolitical climate  7.01%
  • Poll analysis: In this week’s poll, 30% of the 1,211 respondents chose the response “many large holders have announced their intent to sell,” in line with what was reported about the Central Bank of Cyprus, George Soros, and others, whereas nearly the same proportion believe that the list of factors in the poll does not include what they consider the primary factor for the sell-off. Indeed, the cause of this sell-off, the largest in 30 years, appears to be quite complex, with most of the sell action in the COMEX, where 400 metric tons ($20 billion) were sold within a matter of hours, while reported physical gold demand remained robust, especially in Asia. Some referred to the sell-off in the Japanese bond market and other markets as an orchestrated bear raid. — Samuel Lum, CFA, Director, Private Wealth & Capital Markets, CFA Institute

A Dirty Dozen Most Common Tax Mistakes…..The week that was…Tennis and Travel

The following VERY topical mistakes are our top findings over the last 25 or so years. While not exhaustive we hope that at least one of our findings might greatly resemble your situation keeping further Uncle Sam prompting from your mailbox.

On a personal note, what a week it was. After a late Monday night girls basketball practice, Tuesday night pet treeing/stranded evacuation problem, we had our Annual CFA Forecast Dinner on Wednesday night followed by a Father Daughter Indian Princess event on Thursday night at the house (thanks wifey Pam for all the help.) Tonight marks a professional tennis tournament watching for the girls, much deserved down time!  Our miscalculation came ahead of  the long week by allowing the lovely (currently tired and grumpy) children to stay up a bit too late on Sunday night during the Super Bowl.  Looking forward to the weekend, meetings with new out-of-town guests, viewing of Ragtime play, and of course tennis with Sophia our 8-year-old, and some extra sleep (hopefully haha)!

Next week brings travel out of the state late in the week as the following Monday is a holiday in honor of presidents day…but that is next week…

For now, have a great weekend and here is your dirty dozen tax mistakes!


A Dozen Common Tax Mistakes that May Cost You Money

Over the last 25 or so years we have had the opportunity to work with many clients in various different professional fields. One item they all have in common is the need to complete an annual tax return. We draw from these experiences to give you the most common tax mistakes we have seen in “Letterman like” order of frequency.

12. Missing extension deadline-Do not forget to file an extension if you are not able to make the filing deadline, extensions are easy, important, but very costly should you forget

11. Basis– Under current tax law you most likely have a basis on every item you own, be sure to include it on your reporting records, otherwise the IRS will include it with a zero basis/all capital gains

10. Not filing when needed to: When someone becomes deceased it is a very good idea to file a final return to notify the IRS, also even if your income falls under the limits for filing, often times it is necessary to file a return if there were investment or expense events in the tax year

  9.  Medical deductions many times are not deductible due to the limitations of inclusion, but occasionally medical expenses may drift over the inclusion areas, and tax laws change frequently; it is a good practice to keep medical records and expenses no matter the end deductibility     

8. Rounding deductions: Be exact on all items, a sure way to raise a red flag is to round all of your deductions even if you are rounding down, the IRS wants and rightly expects exact numbers

7. Duplicate social security: If you switch employers during the year, it is highly likely you may have over withheld Social Security taxes, as each employer holds per his time frame of employment, the end result will be a refund of your over withheld taxes, if this occurs

6.  Under Withholding: Very frequent and costly, under withholding sometimes occurs with very little tax payer changes; If you are uncertain on your amount owed, attempt to confirm you have at least paid in 110% of your prior years taxes as this will help you avoid penalties

5.  Not Filing Soon After Extension: While an extension is easy to file and recommended, if you owe taxes the extension does not stop penalties, so it is always a good idea to file soon after your extension in order to lessen penalties, if any

4. Stock Option Exercise data incorrectly entered: After executing a sale of stock options, SRO, or even restricted stock, you will receive a company related tax form; We have found due to the variety of reporting methods by various different public companies this information is often miss entered on tax returns. It is not usually a tough fix, but is easiest if entered correctly with the primary return

3. Loss Carry Over: We often times see losses from prior years, left out and therefore not receiving full benefit; Be sure to carry those losses forward, either passive or active

2. Filing too Quickly: For many of us, it is hard to believe, but indeed some do file too soon and then receive a corrected statement of some type. Completing your taxes in late February is fine, but we recommend holding your personal/1040 until late March in order to hopefully wait out any corrected tax statements

And Finally, the one item we see the most, that has caused many grief, including our own personal situations:

1. Missing Interest: The most frequent item we see causing tax payer grief is the missing interest on a tax payers return. It could be an incorrect address change, forgotten account, or even a closed account that generated tax reporting early in the prior tax year, but missing interest reporting ranks as our number one problem for tax payers. Again an easy fix, but most times results in tax penalties and additional payments

We hope you enjoyed our Dirty Dozen Tax Mistakes and thank you for your time. Also a  couple of useful tax related sites are as follows, the IRS Forms site, and a great site for estimating your taxes.

Have a Great Day!


8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

S&P 500 year end call ….. Holiday Parties and nerds!

While we are certain most of you gleefully enjoy the spirit of the holiday season, investment nerds are different.

At a recent industry specific holiday party (CFA members only party) I found myself chatting with a hedge fund manager about the fiscal cliff and his year-end market expectations.  One thing led to another, and as word spread a group soon formed of various professionals all espousing their opinion and end of year closing S&P 500 price.

The group included portfolio managers, Trust officers, bankers, M&A guys along with several direct peers of our firm. Out with my cell phone for exact year-end number tracking and initials for the responsible party (withheld here) the bets were on. Of course we had a very large wager of $1 per person, not sagging the holiday stockings for sure.

Here are the actual estimates I gathered at the party.

Again, this is for the year-end closing of the S&P 500.(Far right circle and triangle are mean and median…yaya..nerds)

Nerds EOY 2012 S&P 500 Close

The interesting observation about the estimates are the disparity. As the official record keeper, I reminded the group of only a handful of full trading days bookmarked by lots of skeleton crew markets…..of course to no avail. These are huge moves for such a short time, just huge!

Conclusion: Even a group of investment nerds are dramatically different in their logic, reasoning, and estimates, but were all VERY convicted in their estimates…No wonder markets are so spastic lately!

Have a Great Day!


PS I will reveal the winner, if it is someone from the office.

PSS Apologies to any fellow nerds who may be reading this and involved in the survey…..hey…a spade is a spade…haha

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Not the Financial Industry’s Proudest Moment…..Mistakes or Malice ? A Better Foundation for Tomorrow!

For those clients, friends, and followers you most likely know we love the financial industry and happily live it every day. Recently there have been numerous examples of “black eyes” to say the least, which cast a slight cloud over our beloved industry.

As a former local CFA society president and FPA board member I have had the opportunity to work alongside literally hundreds of fellow financial industry practitioners. While maybe an inordinate sample, the goal and spirit of almost every person I have worked with in the industry is genuinely positive and best for the client.

Mistake or Malice?

The most recent Knight trading debacle along with the high-profile Face Plant…oh I mean Facebook IPO has continued to darken the circle of the already black eye of many in the financial industry. Using these two events as an example, Knight was a computer glitch and the over hyped Facebook proves correctly that value matters, not just sizzle.  We contend that these two event are more mistakes than malice.

Several large institutions, Stanford, Madoff and many others are certainly malicious events along with managers losing sight of who the client really is, you the investor. Our view is the book should be thrown at these and we welcome the negative publicity as it sets the foundation for a better future for all participants.

Just as the economic and industrial world has evolved, the financial industry is evolving too (High Frequency Trading..ect) sometimes not in a straight line for the better.

Our true belief is the financial industry is setting the foundation for a strong future.  Experiencing mistakes, although painful, will strengthen, and become a better place for all participants, while at the same time ferreted out those of malicious intent.

Have a Great Monday!




8222 Douglas Ave # 590

Dallas, TX 75225