Tag Archives: Consumer Confidence

October 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update- By John Kvale

Here is our October 2017 Monthly review. If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format.

Enjoy!

October 2017 Video

Break In – D Magazine Honors – Best Wealth Managers

We are super happy to be honored in D Magazines Best Financial Planner and Wealth Managers Award !!

Thanks so much and congratulations to our fellow recipients.

9-27-17 FINAL DMAG Spread

11th Consecutive Honor – John Kvale Best Individual Financial Planner

The 11th consecutive D Magazine best Financial Planner award was also in this edition and we are super happy to announce, John received his 11th consecutive nomination!DmagLogo

Wow and again thanks to our fellow recipients!

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

Social Security Increase

Don’t smirk at 2%, every penny counts! With a CPI (Consumer Price Index) increase of 2% year over year, the Social Security Administration passed the good news on earlier this month. Take that 2% increase and run!

img_0937

Capital Market Comments

Rates are Slowly Ticking Up

After much silence on interest rates, we have taken notice of recent movement as the global economy begins to pick up steam … Overseas seems to really be getting their act together.

10-24-17 10 Year Treasury

Consumer Sentiment Also Higher

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment hit a post “Great Recession” high this month.

With two thirds of our US Economy being based on consumer consumption, this bodes well for the Economy.

10-13-17 Consumer Sentiment

See you at the end of November, which also features our very special Blooper Thanksgiving Video from a few years ago!

Happy Fall Season!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

December 2016 Podcast Video, Financial Planning Tip and Economic Review- By John Kvale

The year is over… Wow, was that fast or what? As regular readers know we do a monthly review. Starting with this video we are going to also have an emphasis on describing our updates for those Podcast listeners. So if you do not have the ability to watch the video, the Audio Podcast of this review will bring you up to date and fill you in well.

Let’s finish 2016 with our December Financial Planning Tip and Economic Review.. Here we go!

December 2016 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip –

Tax Tips and more

The best part of these tips are they can be done now in the year 2017 and help our 2016 tax pain….

  • SEP – Offsets 1099/Non W-2 Income
  • HSA – Deductions for high deductible Health plans
  • IRA – Oldie but a goodie-
  • Roth – Special purpose retirement vehicle
  • Itemize those Sales Taxes

Capital Market Movement

Everybody is happy?

We have spoken about the consumer and her role in pushing GDP (Gross Domestic Production) forward when happy… now take a look at investor confidence, again from our friends at Gallup…

12-28-16-gallup-investor-confidence

Triple digits here we come ?  Time will tell!

Have a Great start to 2017!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
JK Street Cents Logo

 

Confidence … What Confidence? And less Hope?? …. Wait a Minute

Consumer spending currently makes up over two-thirds of GDP.  A happy confident consumer means good things to US economy in the form of growth/consumption.

Consumer Confidence Wanes

We watch the economic numbers closely, maybe too close at times.

While not sure why, the latest readings from the Conference Board (7/28/15)  were very weak.

7-28-15 Consumer Confidence

And future expectations/hope on the Economy were weak too!

 

7-28-15 Consumer Hope

Wait a minute, gas is cheap, the weather is good for the most part across the country, employment is up, interest rates are low, banks are lending, home prices are rising … Did they get an extra amount of grumpy callers on this survey?  We think it may be possible!

Fortunately there is a very similar reading, called the Michigan Consumer Sentiment, due out Friday …

Just in case it was not a one time incident, we are watching closely !

Have a Great Wednesday !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS If this is from the latest MINOR market pull back — well … let’s hope not!

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

JK Street Cents Logo

 

How about that Santa Rally … Consumer Back? … From the Road …

When I mentioned a Santa Rally in the throes of lead balloon oil barrels, weak trading volume, and falling earnings estimates, “no guarantees” was a certain inclusion.

S&P 500 Santa Rally 12-22-14

One can almost see a sleigh going into the sky the last three days.  Fundamentals?  … shhh … tis the season, we can worry about that next year.

Checking In From the Road

Consumer confidence, comfort, and most important … SPENDING!

  1. Maybe I am in a unique part of the country
  2. Maybe it is the season
  3. Maybe this time its different? (Doubtful)

If not, the consumer is coming back and feeling more confident  … great news for spending and GDP (Gross Domestic Production – Measure of economic situation – about 2/3 consumer spending related.) More healing in the works.

Enjoy your Monday … From the Road!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

September 2014 Review: Monthly Financial Planning Tip, Capital Market and Economic Overview

Welcome to our monthly Economic, Capital Market, and “hot off the presses” Financial Planning tip of the month. Once again a special thanks to all of  YOU … the best clients and friends as your experiences have again given us the subject matter for our Financial Planning Tip of the Month.

For those new to our writings, we touch on the most pertinent Economic and Financial “stuff” along with a video of my mug that has even more specialized details of the latest month as well as this post.

Let’s get going !

PSSST …. Hope you like our neat new intro to the video too!

 

VIDEO

You Tube Direct Link   or   Vimeo Direct Link

Itemize special items on Your Homeowners Insurance

  • Jewelry
  • Paintings/Art
  • Rugs
  • Any special/unusual valuable items

If you have anything out of the ordinary, check with your homeowners carrier to see if it needs to be itemized. Not to worry, in most cases the premium will not rise much if any, BUT if you forget to itemize and theft, destruction or a loss in incurred, you will be sorry.

Most carriers only ask you let them know you have something that needs itemized … if they do not know, they will most likely only pay a more normal relative fair market value of the item, possible far below the true value.

Ok, so you didn’t see our writings before the loss. It’s not all bad news, would you believe, you can deduct personal losses from your taxes ? Yep

Here is the IRS ruling, just be aware, there are certain hurdles you must jump … all worth jumping to help offset the pain of our loss with a tax deduction!

Too Strong US Dollar … huh ?

Don’t look now, but those claiming the end of the US Dollar as the world reserve currency have to think twice.

Why the strength?

  1. Russia/Ukraine conflict
  2. Broad weakness across the world EX USA
  3. More other countries currency falling than US strength

Chart of the US Dollar against a broad basket of world currencies

US Dollar Basket 9-30-14

Positives:

  • Oil: denominated in US $,  downward pressure on price
  • Imports less expensive
  • Good time to travel abroad

Negatives

  • VERY tough on exports(ers), less price competitive
  • Headwind for all non US countries
  • Tough for foreigners to buy, travel or spend here in US

It is not the TOTAL appreciation of the US currency, but the speed at which it happened … J.K. Financial, Inc.

 Average  Hourly Earnings

Today’s Top Economic Indicator

Avg Hourly Wage Growth

I am beginning to think this is one of the Holy Grail charts of our slow recovery. This recovery has been so slow to feel any pressure on wages, consumers are beginning to feel tapped out.

Consumer Confidence Drops Unexpectedly

Consumer Confidence 9-30-14

Because wages have not increased with inflation pressures, consumers are taking a pay cut. Consumer confidence is a driver of our economy.

Higher Consumer Confidence = Higher Spending (GDP 70% consumer) = Higher GDP

Keeping careful watch!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225
 

5 Financial Positives This Week and Good Bye Q3 2011

In our Zig when others Zag “Friday Positive Fashion” we found many positives this week, so buckle up, and let’s review together:

Merkel the Muscle: AKA Angela Merkel, German Chancellor, flexed her muscles in the passing of a tough lower house vote to give greater support and power to the FSFC, an entity to help the EU countries solvency issues.

The First Trickle of Earnings Announcements looks ok: While we are very early in the earnings season AKA “90 day treadmill” our first look at company reports looks favorable. Our continued interest is how much the “lack of confidence markets” have seeped into investment decisions, both from a consumer level, and CFO level. So far so good !

Consumer Confidence Still Hanging In there: We view the lack of negative in consumer confidence as a positive. The longer we go without a major drop in confidence the better, in our opinion, as the initial dramatic market movements of early August become a memory. The longer term outlook also increased in this weeks Consumer numbers, leading to possible better times ahead.

Chicago PMI Surprises to Upside: Expectations for a 55 point reading on the Chicago area purchasing managers report were surpassed by an actual reading of 60.  In the strongest report since April of this year, the Chicago PMI report may be pointing to accelerating purchases and may bode well for the ISM Report of next week. A surprisingly positive report overall.

Steve Liesman breaks positive Euro report News (Video): Liesman, an economist and financial commentator on CNBC, broke the news that the EU was beginning talks on funding, targeted for struggling EU countries. The story was a huge positive as it appeared talks had begun to falter and countries were headed to their own corner to protect themselves. Capital markets greeted this breaking story with surprise and a Champaign party attitude.

Have a Good Weekend as we bid the third quarter of 2011 goodbye !

JK