Tag Archives: Consumer Sentiment

Who brought the Grinch to a usually Happy December Markets – Three Possible Items

As we have mentioned here and here, November and December are historically the best times for markets, with the latter having pole position.

While no one knows for certain, and we are watching a ton of different indicators, here are three items of note, worth reviewing.

Before we begin, earnings – one of the most important part of capital markets future, are still positive and this year looks to be one of the best on record!

Three Grinch items to review

Inversion Watch – 10 year treasury yield

We have spoken tons of time about the inverted yield curve and a major part of that curve as well as the inversion, is the current rate of the 10 year yield. This chart shows the recent movement of the 10 year yield moving down – this could be expectations of a slower future economy/growth OR it could be just some big money buying bonds – either way, a Grinch twinge to the capital markets.

12-11-18 Ten Year Treasury

Technical testing of markets

Oddly, even as we mention in this post the Grinch – in reality the capital market participants are taking their sweet time to test and re-test their levels – ignoring the happy months of November and December – Whatever makes you happy guys!

12-11-18 SP 500

Is Sentiment Grinchy? – Worth Watching

With 2/3rds of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) being consumer spending, consumer confidence is one of the most important parts of the economy – No Grinch here!

Capital Markets have forecasted many more bad times than have occurred – but in so doing they have also accurately forecasted “Bad Times!”  –  For now, we are doing our “No Grinch” dance, but watching closely and respecting all!

Have a Great “No Grinch” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Consumer Sentiment hits a new post Great Recession high

The University of Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment publishes one of several consumer sentiment indicators.

Consumer Sentiment

With a domestic economy that relies about 66% on consumer spending, a happy consumer is good for the economic outlook.

From Michigan Survey of Consumer Sentiment October 2017 update

10-13-17 Consumer Sentiment

Looking longer term, this is not an ALL TIME high, but still on the positive side.

10-13-17 Consumer Sentiment 50 years

Have a Positive Sentiment day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

Consumers are Happy!

With a business cycle that is very long in the tooth… We are closely watching the biggest part of the economy, the consumer.

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Jumps

11-25-16-consuemr-sentiment

As the economic cycle ages, sentiment may wane .. looking at this chart going back the last several years, sentiment appears to be gaining steam.

Could the 07-09 cycle have been so deep and so slow to recover that we are just now picking up steam? Time will tell !

Have a Great “Good Sentiment” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

October 2013 End of Quarter Capital Market Review (Video..)

October whisked by quickly from our perch, as they seem to be doing lately, especially this time of the year. Looking back, there were major events for review, so here we go:

John Kvale October 2013 Review Video

Government Shut Down … Boy who cried Wolf

Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your optimism, we have had enough political saber-rattling lately that a government shut down hardly fazed the capital markets.  Markets continue to ride the wave of government stimulus with very little pause. As we have mentioned there are no steals in the US Capital Markets today, however earnings can grow into their valuations … eventually!

Oct 2013 Hourly Chart Worden Brothers

This is an Hourly October Chart

Economic Reports, The Great Disconnect

We are not certain how much the government shut down affected the economic data as well as consumer sentiment, no matter the economic data is pointing to a slowing across the board. This is being viewed positively by the Capital Markets as a continuance of the stimulus. Bad news is good, so to speak.

Note the continued fall off in hiring near the tail end of this chart. Caution is advised, not fear yet, but not a time to be extremely bold … we are watching closely.

10-28-13 Econoday Payroll Graph

Oddly enough, Consumer sentiment was/has been more affected by the Government shut down than the afore-mentioned capital markets. Again, caution, not fear, but this could lead to shorter lines for the holiday season. Consumers make up almost 2/3rds of  GDP, such the reason for follow.

10-28-13 Econoday Consumer Sentiment

Richard Fisher Event

With leprechaun luck of attending an event with current Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman, Richard Fisher, we enjoyed his more Hawkish views which are similar to ours. Hawks tend to favor less stimulus. Much of the event was focused on the government shut down, which as we all know is … “yawn” ….old news now, but his quote of “Do not test markets” sticks in our minds. Again, more on this in our next newsletter but a lasting impression was left.

CEO Dallas Federal Reserve

CEO Dallas Federal Reserve

Next Up, November … Thanks for reading/viewing … Watch out Turkeys!

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Be Careful Out there; Quadruple Witching and Summer Days

In addition to being a summer Friday away from major earnings season, and without any heavily followed economic reports other than consumer sentiment (see chart below from Econoday), today marks the expiration of four types of derivative contracts, or “Witches

Single Stock Options and Futures, Index Options and Futures.

As we have been written about in our latest newsletter (more coming soon) these derivates contracts, while very useful, have unique characteristics and have grown greatly in popularity over the last few years, leading to more impactful movement on all areas of the capital markets.

It is a good idea to remember if an investor is making transactions today, additional caution may be advised as the “Four Witches” may create unique movements in various areas of the markets.

Consumer Sentiment: Latest results for June 2011 due at 8:55 AM Central

Have a Great Day!

JK