Tag Archives: Contra bounces

January 2023 – YES Already One Month Down – Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Roth Donation – Homestead – Contra Rally reminder – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our January 2023 … YEP 2023 !!! Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

New Laptop – Looks Like the Old One – But not so much!

January 2023 Video – Note New Intro and Theme Music


YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Give a kid/Young Adult a Roth if they Meet the restrictions

By blending a couple of Tax laws and having at least $6500 in earnings, a young adult may be just the right recipient of a gift, but to a Roth Retirement plan rather than for spending….

Gifts up to $17k per person are free of gift/estate tax issues – blend that with at least the Roth amount of earnings and a donation directly to a Roth can be a super gift, all of which we discuss here in our January post!

Purchase a New Home last Year – Check that Homestead Exemption

In one of our annual reminders, in this post we once again remind those that purchase a new home last year, that if they are in the home as of January 1 in most/many cases, you may be eligible for a Homestead Deduction aka – Property tax savings….

We also updated a large but not complete slew of state related adjustments – thanks Wikipedia!

Capital Market Comments

Watch the Contra Rally – They can be very deceiving!

With a suddenly happy faced Capital Market, we remind ourselves and everyone else Contra Rallies can seem very soothing, but often times their main result is to have you let your guard down and draw one into a sudden overconfident situation… NO biting…

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of February!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Contra Rally Reminder … New Laptop … Cold Friday

In slow downs, things called Contra Rallies occur … we have mentioned this before, here, here and here and as the reminder chart below shows, they can be very large …

We are optimistic at heart but also realists when it comes to economic data and the effects of higher interest rates on the economy. And OH… the rallies can be big as the chart above, again from prior post exhibits.

We will call your attention to Contra Rallies relative the “sharp pullback” during growth times when that chapter finally arrives…not to worry it will…

Technology Dog Years

With a call to our IT folks due to a humming fan in the favorite dear laptop…. an assessment was made that the “Dear Laptop” was nearing the Century mark in computer terms…. With a new one in hand, almost identical to the old but with all the latest platform and security, let the downloading of programs and setting of shortcuts begin….already liking the faster hardware speed, clearer screen and speaker quality – yay

Cold Friday and Weekend

Traveling back over 1200 miles south to a Colder Climate was a bit surprising….But, hey it is a Friday and it is Texas… “If you do not like the weather, just wait a bit, it will change!”

Enjoy your Friday and maybe a Fire if you are near in proximity, and your weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Bear/Slowing Market Bounces Reminder – A Historical Perspective

We have spoken before on the uniqueness of slowdown or bear markets ability to have ripping increases that soon fizzle…

While we do not now why they occur for sure, a historical perspective is they DO occur!

20 Largest One Day Gains in the NASDAQ Since 1971

We know that NASDAQ is filled with volatile companies…. but this chart making the rounds is very interesting….

The 7.4% move that many were calling the start of a new Bull Market sneaks in at 14th place of this one day moves going back to 1971- Yes, 1971!

We might even take issue to the 4 rallies not in “Bear/Slow Markets” according to this chart…. but if we do not, it is still 16 out of 20 in Bear/Slow Markets!

Have a Great “Watch the Slow/Bear Market” contra rallies!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Hill Street Blues Reminder … Let’s be Careful Out there … Slowdown Refresher – Lengthy and Contra Bounces …

As a kid, with a firm 9 PM bedtime, one of the last shows I could grab before hitting the sack each night was a cop show … maybe showing my age, remember was a kid … Hill Street Blues, each show started out with the chief giving a summary of the day and passed events ….. and his words every show as he released his men to the streets were …

 “Let’s be careful out there!”

Reviewing Anatomy of a Slowdown again

Being creatures of habit … recency bias seeps into so much of our thinking … 2020 was just barely a double digit day retreat and Capital Markets of 2018 just barely a double digit month retreat. 

Many may have forgotten what a normal slowdown looks like.

Not trying to beat us over the head or a dead horse, however that goes …. More normal economic slowdown‘s as mentioned here and here just to name a few mentions (ok dead horse again) take somewhere between nine month and eighteen months a.k.a. 2007 – 2009 financial and 2000 dot com bust followed by a slow down, rather than just the most recent quarters we’ve experienced.

Contra Movements

Big bounces are part of a slowdown… much bigger bounces than normal growth appreciations during Growth/Bull times …

Yep… 19.37% and 22.93% bounces….

A slow down, the R word – (Recession), or a growth absence, patience is a virtue …

In true let’s be careful out there fashion, we haven’t forgotten the umbrella and maybe it will not rain, but we definitely have the umbrella just in case….

Bottom line, stay away from extreme headlines of “It’s all clear” and the other “It’s all doom and gloom”, we will get through this, but let’s be careful out there and have our patience hats on too!

Have a Great “Anatomy of a Slowdown Refresher” Day!

Be Careful out there too!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents