Tag Archives: Corona Virus

Updated Market Thoughts and Two Corona Resources … Spring Break …Office Hours Next Week

While we have fun in our writings here, the real reason for this venue is for times like now!

Over the recent week there have been a number of events occurring that are causing Capital Market jitters…. here are our updated candid, serious, thoughts.

Market Update and Corona Resources

The cancellation of most sporting and almost any other group events has sent chills down many, and has filtered into the Capital Market movement –

Given our fight our flight wiring, each of us have two ways to digest these events… couple of examples

“Cancellation of almost all sporting and group events!”

  1. Wow, this must be really bad, I better hunker down and get ready for a terrible event…
  2. Wow, they are really doing a great job on nipping this in the bud quickly, this will be over faster than we know!

“Capital Markets are really jumping around, and have dropped in value!”

  1. Wow, the value in my 401k/Investment Portfolio/Company Stock plan has dropped, look at the money if have lost…
  2. Wow, this is what we have been waiting for, we have been prepared and things are on sale finally, in a year, I bet I will be really glad to have re-invested or made additional opportunistic (but not heroic ore reckless) buys!

Clients – We are on point two in both cases, its really easy to go down path one, maybe much easier…but try to stay on point two!

Our Best Corona Resources

In keeping you on point two above, we feel it is important you stay informed… as such we have the following two best of the best websites for Corona Virus Tracking…

Johns Hopkins Dashboard – Mentioned earlier- This is great for tracking specific geographic areas and we are closely monitoring the chart in the far right lower corner for a leveling of growth… this site is updated less frequently but daily at least

Worldometer Corona Tracker – This is updated constantly and give you an almost live feed of information, although not as pretty format as the above…

Blending these two will give you a good, comprehensive view of what it going on… IF YOU WANT TO FIND OUT… all of us may not!

We have no idea how long this will last and we have no idea what Capital Markets will do… no one does at this time.

In time, this will pass… when the all clear bell rings, Capital Markets will likely be much higher as relief is priced in quickly!

Careful on your reading or listening in-take… the most EXTREME predictions tend to make the headlines!

Office Hours and Spring Break

Accomplishments for the year continue as next week is Spring Break for the school bound 12 year old,  who was also part of the early year goal to spend more time….

Careful when you give them the go ahead on Spring Break Wishes…grrrr

Current the two of us are out of town, in a warmer place that would accommodate the two dogs… with other family members arriving soon.

We will be in and out of the office next week, but fortunately have good Wifi in our location!

Sorry for the HEAVY post today, but wanting to give you our best and candid thoughts!

Have a Great Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

February 2020 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our February 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In – Cool New Feature – In the past we have done our videos on YouTube and this video will also be on our Channel there, however, we have added new features to our site here, that allows us to embed the video here, AND you will not get hit with tons of advertising after the video…. hope you enjoy!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

February – 2020 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

All About the ETF (Exchange Traded Fund)

In an abbreviated three part series, a preview to our extended Q2 Newsletter Article, we discuss the origination of the very first Index ETF called SPY nick named the Spider and then the proliferation, and finally in part 3 of our series the dangers of non liquid ETF’s during stress,… never knowing stressful times were just around the corner.

Here are links to each post:

Capital Market Comments

This is a year to date graph of the S&P 500, Dow Jones and the Russell 2000 (Small Companies) indexes.

A silly but true Wall Street Saying comes to mind…

“Markets Go Up on an Escalator and Down on the Elevator!”

We left a different chart off because it looks more dramatic and there is enough drama around the Virus and Market Reactions.

Couple of Interesting Statistics for you to keep the perspective

  • So far this season, 60 Million people in the US have contracted the flu (CDC)
  • So far this season, 14 thousand people in the US have died from the flu (CDC)
  • There are 22 – yes TWENTY TWO confirmed cases of Corona Virus infections at this time
  • One death from the Corona Virus
  • Capital Markets are where they were just 4 months ago – We got back there fast… see saying above

3-1-20 YTD Index Returns

Possible Chance – All time 10 Year Treasury Low

The chart below is of the 10 year treasury yield, which loosely correlates to Mortgage rates…

This is an all time low! 

We would wait a little before actually taking action, as the swift movement down in rates is likely not reflected yet- but get ready….

Touch base with your Mortgage Professional or us –

Consider Lowering and Locking any fixed rate mortgages or loans!

Here is a Detailed Article on our Thoughts

3-1-20 Treasury 10 year all time low

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Thoughts On the Corona Virus and Market Reactions – Speed is Our Friend

This day is usually reserved for our end of the month video, or an easy Friday slide into the weekend post, however, we wanted to give you our thoughts and explanations regarding the Virus and Market Reactions.

Speed is Your Friend

Generally, recessions and deep Ugly Bear Markets, take time to occur…. the Wall Street name is “Rolling Tops” and long deep declines.  Fast forward to current conditions …. Think of 1987, 2011, 2016, 2018 and now today… these are quick drops … almost protests, by market participants, with much faster than normal recoveries…. We are certainly not guaranteeing this will occur again, but of the three most recent, the faster they fall, the faster they recover… The recent moves are over 4, yes FOUR days… (More to come in this repeated quick drops in the future!)

2-27-20 S&P 500

The Weatherman Affect

The CDC Center for Disease Control has been releasing information, especially serious information mid-week, that have directly and correctly affected the capital markets. The CDC needs to warn us for the worst possible scenario just like the weatherman needs to warn us for the tornado or hurricane, if not warned of the worst possible scenario, we may be in worse shape … and correctly complain of lack of information. This being said, some of the frightening statistics or actions that you may have crossed paths with, are likely not going to happen.

Capital Markets Finally Take Notice

Oddly from our perch, until this week, Capital Market (participants) basically ignored the Virus and the possible affects. This in part, may be why we are seeing such a big reaction (likely an over reaction) at this time!

Logically a virus that causes cities to shut down … no matter where they are, will lead to some type of economic slowdown.  Much to our surprise, capital markets, until recently had basically ignored this possibility. While we hate when capital markets go down, especially with such speed, there is a logical reason.

2-27-20 Index 5 days trailing

Due to the recent volatility, in groundhog like fashion we’re back where we started from and even a bit lower than the start of the year. Investors have acted rationally racing to the safety of bonds, pushing yields down, bond prices up as can be seen in the next graph. (Notice how the Yield spreads all collapse together recently, see next comments)

2-26-20 YTD Bond spreads

With spreads so close, and yields once again down (bond prices up- safety haven) it is not surprising, the inverted yield curve has once again raised its head.

2-26-20 Yield Curve 90 day 10 year 20 year chart

With market participants hating uncertainty,  until clarity is found concerning the spreading of this virus, we would expect capital markets to be very susceptible to headline stories, both positive and negative over reactions would not be surprising … Once again, another reason we like to have a conservative posture and will sit tight and be opportunistic as needed!

Hang tight, and pick your reading/viewing material carefully, it is very likely by the time it gets warm, much of this will be behind us, and a distant memory!

Enjoy your Friday and weekend…. sorry to be so heavy, but we wanted to share our candid thoughts!

Have a Great “Virus Updated” Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

January 2020 Podcast Video (Dogs Blooper at 2:55), Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our January 2020 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In: Dog Blooper at 2:55 for those wanting a chuckle!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

January – 2020 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Handy New Tax Rates and Table

Early in the month, here in this post, we review the new contribution levels, rates and maximums.

As suspected, we have reviewed this ourselves a ton of times already as 2019 and 2020 levels blur during conversations…

2020 Comp and Retirement Contribution Limits

Homesteading Reminder

In our article here, we remind all of those who may have changed primary residence last year to check their homesteading provisions as this can be a significant saving, depending on your situation.

Examples

  • California exempts the first $7,000 of residential homestead from property taxes.
  • Colorado allows a 50% deduction for up to the first $200,000 (equivalent to a $100,000 exemption if the property is valued at $200,000 or above) for seniors (over age 65) who have lived in their property for ten consecutive years.
  • Georgia allows a 1% HEST only in a few counties.
  • Florida‘s homestead exemption allows an exemption of 160 acres outside of a municipality and one-half an acre inside a municipality.[5]
  • Kentucky, for 2013 and 2014, the exemption has been set at $36,000. Once it is approved, homeowners who are 65 or older do not need to reapply for the homestead exemption each year.[6]
  • Louisiana exempts the first $75,000 of residential homestead from local property taxes.[7]
  • Michigan exempts the homeowner from paying the operating millage of local school districts.
  • Mississippi exemption from all ad valorem taxes assessed to property; this is limited to the first $7,500 of the assessed value or $300 of the actual exempted tax dollars.[8]
  • New York‘s School Tax Relief (STAR) program exempts the first $30,000 of a primary home’s assessed value from school district taxes; the exemption is limited to owners with incomes under $500,000. Additional exemptions are available for people over 65 with a limited income. The STAR program applies only to school taxes; no homestead exemption exists for taxes levied by other municipal entities. New York prevents a New York resident claiming this exemption if the New York resident owns property in another state and claims a similar exemption in that other state.
  • Oklahoma allows a $1000 deduction of the assessed valuation, about $75 to $125 of savings per year, if owners file for homestead exemption with the local county clerk.
  • Rhode Island exempts the first 20% of the home value from property taxes.
  • Texas allows a deduction, with additional exemptions available for county taxes, people over 65 and people who are disabled. It also requires school districts to offer a $25,000 exemption (but not other taxing districts, such as cities and counties).[9] Texas further limits the assessment increase on a homestead to 10% of the prior year’s value.

Helping Close Relatives or Others

During the month, we had multiple Financial Planning questions for close relatives and friends, which were asked, but some what hesitantly…

Wanting to reinforce the fact that we are glad to help, in this article we remind everyone we are not only flattered by the question, but VERY happy to help!

Helping hand adventure-1807524__480.

Tax Forms and Information Reminders

In another handy reference post, here, we discuss the tax form alphabet and more importantly, note the due dates and expected delivery times of the most common tax forms….

1099- R and 1099 Miscellaneous cover 95% of most folks reporting!

We know, it’s tax season again…not everyone’s fav…but we are trying to help make it easier.

Capital Market Comments

The markets finally took notice of the CoronaVirus. As scary as the virus is, modern day medicine and the actual fast spreading of the event and comprehension, unlike SARS which we remember well will likely help stem the fears and spread of the virus.

koyfin_20200201_090411940

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of February!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents