They did it again; Pollsters zero, people two!
In the last quarter of the year, the pollsters completely missed the mark on the US Presidential election, just as our relatives across the pond did earlier in the year on the British vote to leave the Euro, also known as Brexit.
Very similar to the Brexit reaction, as the surprise became a reality, capital markets swooned with the old faithful Dow Jones average dropping over 800 points in the thinly traded futures markets around the world near the middle of the night USA time.
With even faster speed than the Brexit reaction, market participants came to their senses and began making fascinating bets, moves, and adjustments to take into consideration what the surprise nomination may mean in the future. As mentioned in our Q1 2017 Newsletter, interest rates began moving up in dramatic fashion, this time without concern by capital market participants.
Did we mention the FOMC raised rates?
In December of 2015 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates .25%, leading many to find cause and effect for the terrible beginning to 2016. See our 2016 review again in our Q1 2017 Newsletter with a terrific chart of the start of the year, along with descriptive highlights of the year.
In the most recent quarter, specifically December of 2016, Janet Yellen and crew at the FOMC once again raised rates from .25 to .50% on the very short time frame feds funds rate. They also spoke of multiple rate increases to come in 2017. This time, unlike the beginning of 2016, market participants yawned at the move, with the afore mentioned market participants not only expecting the rate increase, but welcoming future increases. The FOMC has moved from the lead story to almost unfindable as market participants seem to be less concerned with deflation and looking ahead to a possible bout of healthy but subdued inflation.
Taxes
While there are MANY items on the table for tax reform, we prefer waiting until laws are passed before making too many actual planning adjustments. There are major reforms being spoken of from Estate to Personal Income taxes that may have planning implications if enacted. Rest assured we are on top of these and will monitor and happily adjust as clarity occurs.
In Closing
Your Fourth Quarter 2016 summary is enclosed on the front page of this report we have included our most recent investment allocation from your Investment Policy Statement. This is also the time we attach our Private Policy Statement for the year along with our opportunity to offer our latest ADV filings; Requests for review will be accepted via phone, mail or email, and mailed immediately upon request.
Have a Fantastic start to 2017!
Sincerely,
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Enclosure (Q4 2016 Report)
Private Policy Statement
Our Promise to You
As a client of J.K. Financial, Inc., you share both personal and financial information with us. Your privacy is important to us, and we are dedicated to safeguarding your personal and financial information.
Information Provided by Clients
In the normal course of doing business, we typically obtain the following non-public personal information about our clients:
Personal information regarding our clients’ identity such as name, address and social security number;
Information regarding securities transactions effected by us; and
Client financial information such as net-worth, assets, income, bank account information and account balances.
How We Manage and Protect Your Personal Information
We do not sell information about current or former clients to third parties, nor is it our practice to disclose such information to third parties unless requested to do so by a client or client representative or, if necessary, in order to process a transaction, service an account or as permitted by law.
In order to protect your personal information, we maintain physical, electronic and procedural safeguards to protect your personal information. Our Privacy Policy restricts the use of client information and requires that it be held in strict confidence.
Client Notifications
We are required by law to annually provide a notice describing our privacy policy. In addition, we will inform you promptly if there are changes to our policy.
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Third Quarter 2018 Cover Letter
The third quarter of 2018 is behind us and the original theme from the first month of the year seems still most appropriate, patience. After rocketing to an unsustainable trajectory in January, the excuse was an over use of a dangerous product, the reality looks to be, we just got too far ahead of ourselves and corrected harshly to a more reasonable trajectory.
It was the Best of Times, it was the Worst of Times
As we look forward, the best part of the year “historically” lies just in our view as we finish the year. Using history as our guide, oddly the first month of the coming quarter has been the most treacherous. Not the time to get to overzealous or glum!
Earnings Eventually Matter
In our Q4 2018 Capital Market Newsletter Article we discuss in detail the correlation of earnings and capital market movement. This obvious connection does not always hold true in the shorter term as aggressive emotions such as greed and fear overshoot constantly in both directions. Eventually the correlation re-connects and more normal heads prevail, making earnings growth and market growth work in tandem.
Interest Rates
The fear of, or at least watching for, an inverted yield curve has grown in popularity. We discussed this item last quarter in great detail. Oddly, when many are looking for an event, it loses it’s predictability. We are not ignoring, and will continue to monitor, but we are concerned at a possible loss of predictively with the crowds of followers swelling. Predictive or not, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) has been slow and open to interest rate increases, so far, and capital markets, the economy and participants are very happy with the increases and have digested them nicely.
Bonds, most effected by interest rates, and one of the safest asset classes tend to feel the headwinds most of higher interest rates. Higher, and increasing rates are initially a headwind, but once the increases stabilize, they become a tailwind, and increased yields push more money into our pockets. This cycle is no different, other than the fact that interest rates we so unprecedented low to begin with, this temporary headwind seems stronger than in other cycles, but it is really not. Look for more details on this subject again in our coming Newsletter.
Have a good start to fall!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
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Posted in Clients/Clients Only, Earnings, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Performance Report Cover Letter
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