They did it again; Pollsters zero, people two!
In the last quarter of the year, the pollsters completely missed the mark on the US Presidential election, just as our relatives across the pond did earlier in the year on the British vote to leave the Euro, also known as Brexit.
Very similar to the Brexit reaction, as the surprise became a reality, capital markets swooned with the old faithful Dow Jones average dropping over 800 points in the thinly traded futures markets around the world near the middle of the night USA time.
With even faster speed than the Brexit reaction, market participants came to their senses and began making fascinating bets, moves, and adjustments to take into consideration what the surprise nomination may mean in the future. As mentioned in our Q1 2017 Newsletter, interest rates began moving up in dramatic fashion, this time without concern by capital market participants.
Did we mention the FOMC raised rates?
In December of 2015 the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) raised rates .25%, leading many to find cause and effect for the terrible beginning to 2016. See our 2016 review again in our Q1 2017 Newsletter with a terrific chart of the start of the year, along with descriptive highlights of the year.
In the most recent quarter, specifically December of 2016, Janet Yellen and crew at the FOMC once again raised rates from .25 to .50% on the very short time frame feds funds rate. They also spoke of multiple rate increases to come in 2017. This time, unlike the beginning of 2016, market participants yawned at the move, with the afore mentioned market participants not only expecting the rate increase, but welcoming future increases. The FOMC has moved from the lead story to almost unfindable as market participants seem to be less concerned with deflation and looking ahead to a possible bout of healthy but subdued inflation.
Taxes
While there are MANY items on the table for tax reform, we prefer waiting until laws are passed before making too many actual planning adjustments. There are major reforms being spoken of from Estate to Personal Income taxes that may have planning implications if enacted. Rest assured we are on top of these and will monitor and happily adjust as clarity occurs.
In Closing
Your Fourth Quarter 2016 summary is enclosed on the front page of this report we have included our most recent investment allocation from your Investment Policy Statement. This is also the time we attach our Private Policy Statement for the year along with our opportunity to offer our latest ADV filings; Requests for review will be accepted via phone, mail or email, and mailed immediately upon request.
Have a Fantastic start to 2017!
Sincerely,
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Enclosure (Q4 2016 Report)
Private Policy Statement
Our Promise to You
As a client of J.K. Financial, Inc., you share both personal and financial information with us. Your privacy is important to us, and we are dedicated to safeguarding your personal and financial information.
Information Provided by Clients
In the normal course of doing business, we typically obtain the following non-public personal information about our clients:
Personal information regarding our clients’ identity such as name, address and social security number;
Information regarding securities transactions effected by us; and
Client financial information such as net-worth, assets, income, bank account information and account balances.
How We Manage and Protect Your Personal Information
We do not sell information about current or former clients to third parties, nor is it our practice to disclose such information to third parties unless requested to do so by a client or client representative or, if necessary, in order to process a transaction, service an account or as permitted by law.
In order to protect your personal information, we maintain physical, electronic and procedural safeguards to protect your personal information. Our Privacy Policy restricts the use of client information and requires that it be held in strict confidence.
Client Notifications
We are required by law to annually provide a notice describing our privacy policy. In addition, we will inform you promptly if there are changes to our policy.
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Second Quarter 2018 Cover Letter Review
On the road to nowhere? Or are we?
While capital markets around the globe may seem subdued, especially compared to last year’s movements, looking beneath the surface there is much going on.
Increased Company Earnings
With the corporate tax cuts, earnings are increasing. Public companies are enjoying terrific earnings growth and logging excellent earnings reports as the year continues. With little movement in capital markets and increased earnings, valuations by most any measure, are becoming less expensive. Also, worth notice in our Q3 Newsletter is a detailed article concerning lowered numbers of public traded companies, a possible source of different valuations moving forward.
Financially Happy Consumer
Broadly, the consumer from a financial standpoint is doing well. A happy consumer, leading to a more freely spending consumer, is an important point for the United States since the Gross Domestic Economy is made up of over two thirds consumer spending. Much of this financial happiness comes before a lower tax burden, likely to be felt by consumers next tax season – again in our Q3 Newsletter there are multiple family scenarios detailing the tax savings due next year.
Interest Rates
Market participants have digested multiple rate increases in stride, unlike times before. With gradual rate increases already occurring in the year, and more expected, normalization of interest rates is occurring without the fears of past. Being the first time in almost a decade to have rate increases, we are on Inverted Yield Curve watch (detailed article again in our Q3 Newsletter) as a possible predictor that rates have moved too far, and a signal of a possible recession. So far this has not occurred.
In closing, our patience theme from the beginning of the year seems to be still best suited.
Have a Great Summer!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
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Posted in Clients/Clients Only, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Performance Report Cover Letter
Tagged Consumer, Cover Letter, Earnings, Interest Rates, Inverted Yield Curve, Performance Report