Tag Archives: CPI

Heavy Week Concludes … Month End … Family Favorite Coming … Friday …

With two heavy posts this week, here and here and not only were they heavy, but they were about the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), Interest Rates, CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the Trimmed Mean Inflation measures…. Y.A.W.N for many!

Ya Ya we know you guys may not find this stuff as interesting as we do, but we like to at least let you know what we are watching and call attention to some of this so as to know what may or may not change or cause issues… thanks for the reading this week….

Month End Coming

With the afore mentioned heavy posts and month end coming along with two Video reviews shortly (Newsletter and September) we thought we could slide into the weekend as it is a Friday….

Speaking of Month End…. this brings a family favorite into view OCTOBER which means HALLOWEEEN … (over week ago of rats, pumpkins and a Crow that keeps falling of the front rail of the entry at the house already set up for the occasion) – not kidding – ok so yours truly has become fond of the warmer months along with the long days…. but occasionally the guard is let down….. the Mrs. and Myself from a few years ago ….

Hope at least got a chuckle …. Green Make Up stuck around for weeks

Next week, back to heavy … and lot’s to talk about …

Today is a Friday … Enjoy your weekend and see you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

The Fed, Economics, Interest Rates and Interest Rates Review Part 2 What would force the FEDs hand?

Well covered in Part 1, here, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and Capital Markets also believe currently that interest rates will stay low for longer …. maybe we are hopeful they are both wrong (No maybe, we are!) but there is one word that we know the FOMC cannot allow to get out of control …

Inflation !

With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.

From FOMC statement September 16, 2020

Here is a great post from earlier on Dallas Fed calculated Trimmed Mean Inflation Measure, the FOMC’s favorite!

Triple the Bazooka – Who Let the Money Out!

During the 07-09 Great Financial Crisis, the FOMC then lead by Ben Bernanke, used the Feds balance sheet to purchase assets in order to lower rates, increase asset prices and calm markets….

This was unprecedented at the time….. Not today!

The current Bazooka is three times more ALREADY and will most certainly continue to grow in size and stimulus !

What if eventually the economy takes hold, and springs back to life –

Here is the traditional measure of inflation, Consumer Price Index from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) – again we like the afore mentioned Trimmed Mean and so does the FOMC!

Not to worry, we will be watching that 2ish % level closely…..

Inflation may occur, forcing the Feds hand at higher rates — time will tell!

Have a Great “FOMC and Interest Rates Part 2 Conclusion” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

October 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update- By John Kvale

Here is our October 2017 Monthly review. If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format.

Enjoy!

October 2017 Video

Break In – D Magazine Honors – Best Wealth Managers

We are super happy to be honored in D Magazines Best Financial Planner and Wealth Managers Award !!

Thanks so much and congratulations to our fellow recipients.

9-27-17 FINAL DMAG Spread

11th Consecutive Honor – John Kvale Best Individual Financial Planner

The 11th consecutive D Magazine best Financial Planner award was also in this edition and we are super happy to announce, John received his 11th consecutive nomination!DmagLogo

Wow and again thanks to our fellow recipients!

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

Social Security Increase

Don’t smirk at 2%, every penny counts! With a CPI (Consumer Price Index) increase of 2% year over year, the Social Security Administration passed the good news on earlier this month. Take that 2% increase and run!

img_0937

Capital Market Comments

Rates are Slowly Ticking Up

After much silence on interest rates, we have taken notice of recent movement as the global economy begins to pick up steam … Overseas seems to really be getting their act together.

10-24-17 10 Year Treasury

Consumer Sentiment Also Higher

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment hit a post “Great Recession” high this month.

With two thirds of our US Economy being based on consumer consumption, this bodes well for the Economy.

10-13-17 Consumer Sentiment

See you at the end of November, which also features our very special Blooper Thanksgiving Video from a few years ago!

Happy Fall Season!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Social Security Raise in 2018 is 2% NICE!

The Social Security Administration announced late last week the COLA (Cost of living adjustment) based not he CPI, Consumer Price Index (see graph below) would be a 2% increase.

Here is a great fact sheet link

Three Important Numbers

2% – The increase in ALL Social Security benefits for 2018

$128,700 – The phase out level of Social Security withholdings – Medicare 3% does not phase out anymore

$17,040 – The maximum amount of employment related income you can earn AND draw Social Security early without facing a dollar for dollar tax above this amount

The CPI – Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) (to be exact, it is the CPI-W for clerical workers and wage earners- it looks exactly the same) is the basic index living adjustments for Social Security (and many other instruments) are used.

img_0937

As you can see the line is generally up, but there are years that no adjustment is made!

Happy 2% raise next year!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com

Residential Housing Prices Analysis – Q 3 2017 Newsletter Preview

As a large asset for many, not to mention the emotional aspects of Residential Real Estate, we set off to review historical, current, and future values of Residential Real Estate across the country.

What we found was very interesting!

Something happened about two decades ago

The following key chart from our complete analysis in our coming Q 3 2017 Quarterly Newsletter depicts the change that occurred about two decades ago:

Inflation via the CPI and US House Price Index

20170507_150801156_iOS

So what happened and why?

After many decades of Residential Housing Prices closely following the price of inflation, near the turn of the century a change occurred that can be easily spotted on the comparison chart.

In our coming Newsletter we discuss the following:

  • The change that occurred
  • Why the change?
  • What does it mean for the future?
  • What lessons can be learned?
  • Current value analysis

We look forward to bringing you the full details soon, but wanted to wet your appetite with our initial information and key chart now !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

No Social Security/Pension Cost of Living Adjustment Increase for 2016

On October 15, 2015 the Social Security administration formally announced that there will be no Cost of Living Adjustment for 2016.

No Cost of Living Adjustment

The Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security and most other pension plans is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Recall this is part of what Janet Yellen and her friends at the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said was too low for their comfort and was used as one reason they did not increase rates.

 

CPI 1 year trailing 9-2015

 

Here is a good graph of the components of CPI, by Bonddad

 

CPI Components CO bonddad 2012

 

Believe it or not, the long term average of CPI is 2.75% – We are no where near that today !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

Flip Flop Not … What’s most important changes, frequently and fast !

If you have been following us long, you may notice we hone in on various items with sometimes excruciating  detail. Of late, interest rates may be an area you have become fatigued, but they are that important at the current time.

Not OCD, but reactive .. It changes

While it may seem at time we jump from one thing to another, we are bringing you the details of what is most important (high level as we never talk exact investments) at any given moment, in our opinion. CPI

Recent the CPI (consumer price index) or inflation gauge printed a hot number and caught our attention.

Here are a few cause and effects:

  • Head Fake (always a possibility)
  • The economy is on the mend and it is just right, Goldilocks
  • Higher interests rates: Headwinds for fixed income instruments  (mortgage, corporate, Treasury)
  • FOMC has to increase the taper speed and maybe increase rates at a faster pace
  • Commodities and  other tangible items accelerate in value
  • Pressure on Capital Markets

So while it may seem we jump around a bit, things change and importances do as well!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Sniff, Sniff …. Is that inflation I smell ??

On Tuesday of this week an economic report caught many by surprise. The Consumer Price Index.

CPI gets Hot !

CPI Econoday M over M CPI  6-17-14

If this continues, this is a VERY strong sign the economy is gaining traction.

The bars tell a better story than the line in the chart !

Inflation at reasonable levels is good, especially given the alternative (deflation) ….. Now “Goldilocks/Three Little Bears” ….. not too hot, not too cold….hopefully just right !!

We will review the winners and losers of inflation, but for now let’s watch and see if it continues!

Have a Great Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

St Louis Fed (FRED) … Tax Dollars Well Used … Short Week

Last week the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis though its data service known as FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) released major updates. Being true Economic data nerds, much of the weekend was spent trolling through the enhancements and updates.

St Louis Fed, Our Tax Dollars Well Spent

Often times it is easy to throw the US’s use of tax dollars under the wasteful bus, but this cannot be said about the St. Louis Fed (FRED) expenditures. With 150,00 data series from 59 different sources, their work is superb, and best of all, free!

Here are two key data points that the FOMC is watching pulled from the new FRED site.

Civilian Unemployment Rate- FOMC GO Target 6.5%, currently 7.3%

Unempl Rate

CPI or Inflation rate- FOMC Target toward 2% currently 1.2%

CPI

Short Week Schedule

The Thanksgiving Holiday is honored on Thursday with Capital Markets being closed, and only partially open on Friday. Cathy is off on Wednesday, Donald is flying out-of-state to visit family,  and the office will be closed on Friday  … Of course I will be loosely electronically tethered just to be safe throughout the week.

Have a Great Monday!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225 

Inflation? Not yet….Social Security Recipients to Receive only a 1.7% Raise

The Social Security Administration has announced the cost of living adjustments for 2013, and with all the talk of inflation, some may be surprised to find that the increase was only 1.7%.  Here is a nice summary page from the Social Security Administration.

Most pension and income inflation related adjustments are based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) including those of the Social Security Administration. Here is an interesting summary from our friends at the Chartstore.com  and the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Take a guess what two items have actually gone down in nominal price over the last two decades? And on that note, any idea which line item has increased the most over the last two decades?  See the chart for yourself, we find it interesting what areas are hot and what are not!

So there you have it, our clothes and washing machines cost us less today than twenty years ago, and for the most expensive item, filling up our tank. Good thing our cars drive farther and longer today than 20 years ago.

Have a Super Day!

JK

214-706-4300
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225