Tag Archives: CPI

Q1 2022 J.K. Financial, Inc. Newsletter … Video Audio Podcast Review ! By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q1 2022 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click the Download button below, for a direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going! We hope you enjoy!

Q 1 2022 Newsletter

(YouTube)

Anatomy of a Slowdown/Recession

In our main article, we review the last three drawdowns/slowdowns/recession for examples of how fast they occurred and the extremely fast recovery as can be seen by the main graph below.

We are not calling for a major slowdown/recession or the like, but we wanted to remind ourselves as well as everyone else, the last three drawdowns were not normal.

Longer drawdowns are the norm, and in the Newsletter Article we also go deeper into the Great Financial Crisis of 07-09, which was also not normal… it was much larger and much longer than the normal.

The past decade and a half have had it’s scary moments, but they did not last very long and were quickly attacked by the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to give support in the system, fortunately very successfully. This may not always be the case, hence a reminder of the Umbrella use during sun shining times!

New Retirement Contribution Maximums, Best Practice, Tips and Tricks

The new retirement maximums are out at the IRS Website .

Again in our Newsletter article we remind those of smooth contributions throughout the year, UNLESS you have knowledge that may have you severed from your 401k some time during the year, in which a neat trick is to accelerate you contribution level in order to max that 401k out before you leave!

IRAs2022202120202019
401(k), 403(b), Profit-Sharing Plans, etc.2022202120202019
Annual Compensation305,000290,000285,000280,000
Elective Deferrals20,50019,50019,50019,000
Catch-up Contributions6,5006,5006,5006,000
Defined Contribution Limits61,00058,00057,00056,000
IRA Contribution Limit$6,000$6,000$6,000$6,000
IRA Catch-Up Contributions1,0001,0001,0001,000
Traditional IRA AGI Deduction Phase-out Starting at2022202120202019
Joint Return109,000105,000104,000103,000
Single or Head of Household68,00066,00065,00064,000
SEP2022202120202019
SEP Minimum Compensation650650600600
SEP Maximum Contribution61,00058,00057,00056,000
SEP Maximum Compensation305,000290,000285,000280,00

We hope you enjoy … talk to you in 2022!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

National Apartment Rent Cost Increase 2017 to Present from Apartmentlist.com … A 30% Increase YTD – Wow!

We had been very excited to show you this, but needed Copyright approval first.

A very timely update to our end of the week CPI analysis.

Last week we finally got Copyright approval….

So here we go!

National Rental Costs from Apartmentlist.com

We have been hearing of rent increases, but did not have a great way to track it. After running across the fantastic Apartment site at www.apartmentlist.com, which has over 5 million apartments and counting for rent, and they are collecting data.

The following is the National Average from 2017 to present. More specific geographic areas are available, but we wanted to use the broadest measure.

Rising rent costs are an understatement, the move from the beginning of the year is approaching 30%…. yep a 30% increase in rent, NATIONWIDE

With Shelter being such a large portion of not only the CPI, but many families expenses, this is worth watching closely!

Have a Great “Rent Increases Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

CPI (Consumer Price Index) Prints 6.8% Year over Year Increase, Quick Analysis on Likely Peak … Friday

About three hours ago, the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) released their November 2021 report on CPI (Consumer Price Index) one of the broadest measures of Inflation…

If you have noticed your grocery basket smaller and more expensive, this is why….

This report has a ton of factors in it, as can be seen at the top of the chart from the BLS report, below….

The year over year print was 6.8% increase!

A very large portion of the CPI is Energy…

Have you noticed a LOWER bill to fill your tank lately?

The BLS report is lagging, below is a current Oil price, which is over 10% LOWER currently… hence the cheaper refills…

Very likely peak in CPI as measured by the BLS, next month which will be released in early January, we will take a peak and keep you updated…

Ok, another slightly heavy Friday, BUT the FOMC is watching this very closely and making decisions based on this increase, which may be peaking/lagging already…. Let’s stay tuned!

Have a Great “Friday CPI Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Reviews of FULL Two Days of Virtual Gathering…. Cyber, Inflation Transitory NOT, Interesting Fatigue from Event…

Last week the team happily carefully gathered and divided to maximize our time at a two day Virtual Conference that is usually “In Person” lasts about a week, and is located in alternating years on the West Coast and then the East…

The conference lasted two days (Tuesday and Wednesday 10 am-3 pm) and was a straight (small morning break of 20 minutes, but no lunch break or bathroom break) five hours each day, with overlapping events except for several “Main” general sessions such as a talk with Ben Bernanke….

The method of attack was for each of us to choose what looked the most interesting and if there was an accidental overlap of desired events, one change to a different session. Oddly, and maybe this speaks to each of desires and roles, we rarely overlapped… there were a few sessions that were “Full” , for the record not sure how a virtual session can get full, but oh well…

As of this time, the sessions are not up for post live review so our review here is part for our own notes (living diary) and mostly for your shared knowledge …

Cyber Threats and Interesting Home Threat Note

Regular followers know we take Cyber security VERY seriously, and just by chance yours truly ended up in lengthy Cyber Security sessions on both days.

Key Takeaways from an office standpoint were more two factor authorizations (extra step of logging into important programs that includes a text to cell)

For the record over the weekend after telling the team last week “I always have my cell” a chance package delivered to the office led a trip up to the office with the cell in the car and the need to log into an important program….. Guess I DON’T always have my cell…haha

A new interesting reminder for those that work from home at all was a statement “If your home router is older than three years and especially if not a commercial router, you may be unsecure!” This of course led to a quick review of each of our home set ups with the note of having a now 14 year old gamer, and a complete security review of all at home security was completed…. just for extra security additional security was set up along with a special at home “Guest Wifi” rather than the family’s for friends who may carry unwanted programs into the network…

Inflation Less Transitory than Thought

Jerome Powell, chair of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) during a speaking event last week mentioned that the coming inflation may be less transitory than initially expected…

Recall this was the main debate at the Mauldin SIC conference early in the Second Quarter as mentioned here and in our Q 3 2021 Newsletter..

Several guests, most notably Lizanne Saunders echoed this thought during a fast speaking opening session…

The basic thought originally was the CPI line below would roll over quickly, now more are thinking it may last longer, especially with the afore mentioned FOMC on record to allow without intervention…

Interesting Observable Fatigue from Event

This was one our first events of this length and without much of a break, we all noted an interesting (high) level of fatigue. It seems like there would be no reason for any tiredness given sitting in front a computer for 10 hours in two days, but is sure was.. heck we were not participants, only observers…

Will keep a tab on this moving forward, sure others have experienced the same, but our first notable occurrence.

Have a Great “Virtual Conference” Update!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Heavy Week Concludes … Month End … Family Favorite Coming … Friday …

With two heavy posts this week, here and here and not only were they heavy, but they were about the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee), Interest Rates, CPI (Consumer Price Index) and the Trimmed Mean Inflation measures…. Y.A.W.N for many!

Ya Ya we know you guys may not find this stuff as interesting as we do, but we like to at least let you know what we are watching and call attention to some of this so as to know what may or may not change or cause issues… thanks for the reading this week….

Month End Coming

With the afore mentioned heavy posts and month end coming along with two Video reviews shortly (Newsletter and September) we thought we could slide into the weekend as it is a Friday….

Speaking of Month End…. this brings a family favorite into view OCTOBER which means HALLOWEEEN … (over week ago of rats, pumpkins and a Crow that keeps falling of the front rail of the entry at the house already set up for the occasion) – not kidding – ok so yours truly has become fond of the warmer months along with the long days…. but occasionally the guard is let down….. the Mrs. and Myself from a few years ago ….

Hope at least got a chuckle …. Green Make Up stuck around for weeks

Next week, back to heavy … and lot’s to talk about …

Today is a Friday … Enjoy your weekend and see you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

The Fed, Economics, Interest Rates and Interest Rates Review Part 2 What would force the FEDs hand?

Well covered in Part 1, here, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) and Capital Markets also believe currently that interest rates will stay low for longer …. maybe we are hopeful they are both wrong (No maybe, we are!) but there is one word that we know the FOMC cannot allow to get out of control …

Inflation !

With inflation running persistently below this longer-run goal, the Committee will aim to achieve inflation moderately above 2 percent for some time so that inflation averages 2 percent over time and longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored at 2 percent.

From FOMC statement September 16, 2020

Here is a great post from earlier on Dallas Fed calculated Trimmed Mean Inflation Measure, the FOMC’s favorite!

Triple the Bazooka – Who Let the Money Out!

During the 07-09 Great Financial Crisis, the FOMC then lead by Ben Bernanke, used the Feds balance sheet to purchase assets in order to lower rates, increase asset prices and calm markets….

This was unprecedented at the time….. Not today!

The current Bazooka is three times more ALREADY and will most certainly continue to grow in size and stimulus !

What if eventually the economy takes hold, and springs back to life –

Here is the traditional measure of inflation, Consumer Price Index from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) – again we like the afore mentioned Trimmed Mean and so does the FOMC!

Not to worry, we will be watching that 2ish % level closely…..

Inflation may occur, forcing the Feds hand at higher rates — time will tell!

Have a Great “FOMC and Interest Rates Part 2 Conclusion” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

October 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update- By John Kvale

Here is our October 2017 Monthly review. If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format.

Enjoy!

October 2017 Video

Break In – D Magazine Honors – Best Wealth Managers

We are super happy to be honored in D Magazines Best Financial Planner and Wealth Managers Award !!

Thanks so much and congratulations to our fellow recipients.

9-27-17 FINAL DMAG Spread

11th Consecutive Honor – John Kvale Best Individual Financial Planner

The 11th consecutive D Magazine best Financial Planner award was also in this edition and we are super happy to announce, John received his 11th consecutive nomination!DmagLogo

Wow and again thanks to our fellow recipients!

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

Social Security Increase

Don’t smirk at 2%, every penny counts! With a CPI (Consumer Price Index) increase of 2% year over year, the Social Security Administration passed the good news on earlier this month. Take that 2% increase and run!

img_0937

Capital Market Comments

Rates are Slowly Ticking Up

After much silence on interest rates, we have taken notice of recent movement as the global economy begins to pick up steam … Overseas seems to really be getting their act together.

10-24-17 10 Year Treasury

Consumer Sentiment Also Higher

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment hit a post “Great Recession” high this month.

With two thirds of our US Economy being based on consumer consumption, this bodes well for the Economy.

10-13-17 Consumer Sentiment

See you at the end of November, which also features our very special Blooper Thanksgiving Video from a few years ago!

Happy Fall Season!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Social Security Raise in 2018 is 2% NICE!

The Social Security Administration announced late last week the COLA (Cost of living adjustment) based not he CPI, Consumer Price Index (see graph below) would be a 2% increase.

Here is a great fact sheet link

Three Important Numbers

2% – The increase in ALL Social Security benefits for 2018

$128,700 – The phase out level of Social Security withholdings – Medicare 3% does not phase out anymore

$17,040 – The maximum amount of employment related income you can earn AND draw Social Security early without facing a dollar for dollar tax above this amount

The CPI – Consumer Price Index

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) (to be exact, it is the CPI-W for clerical workers and wage earners- it looks exactly the same) is the basic index living adjustments for Social Security (and many other instruments) are used.

img_0937

As you can see the line is generally up, but there are years that no adjustment is made!

Happy 2% raise next year!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com

Residential Housing Prices Analysis – Q 3 2017 Newsletter Preview

As a large asset for many, not to mention the emotional aspects of Residential Real Estate, we set off to review historical, current, and future values of Residential Real Estate across the country.

What we found was very interesting!

Something happened about two decades ago

The following key chart from our complete analysis in our coming Q 3 2017 Quarterly Newsletter depicts the change that occurred about two decades ago:

Inflation via the CPI and US House Price Index

20170507_150801156_iOS

So what happened and why?

After many decades of Residential Housing Prices closely following the price of inflation, near the turn of the century a change occurred that can be easily spotted on the comparison chart.

In our coming Newsletter we discuss the following:

  • The change that occurred
  • Why the change?
  • What does it mean for the future?
  • What lessons can be learned?
  • Current value analysis

We look forward to bringing you the full details soon, but wanted to wet your appetite with our initial information and key chart now !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

No Social Security/Pension Cost of Living Adjustment Increase for 2016

On October 15, 2015 the Social Security administration formally announced that there will be no Cost of Living Adjustment for 2016.

No Cost of Living Adjustment

The Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security and most other pension plans is based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Recall this is part of what Janet Yellen and her friends at the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said was too low for their comfort and was used as one reason they did not increase rates.

 

CPI 1 year trailing 9-2015

 

Here is a good graph of the components of CPI, by Bonddad

 

CPI Components CO bonddad 2012

 

Believe it or not, the long term average of CPI is 2.75% – We are no where near that today !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225