Tag Archives: Dallas Federal Reserve

Another Robert Kaplan Townhall Update – Some Breaking Comments … Slowing Purchases this Year

Back in the fall last year, here we commented on a terrific Robert Kaplan Townhall. Good news, this time we were able to listen to this Townhall which occurred Monday January 11, 2021 without accidentally becoming a participant!

Robert Kaplan is the Dallas Federal Reserve President and is a voting member of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) in 2020 – has a lot of eyes on him, especially during FOMC statements … but – see next

We like to listen to these “Quaint” discussions as more open comments and nuggets of information can be discovered and we are big fans of Kaplan as well…

Kaplan Latest Townhall Comments

Kaplan reiterated an expectation of US Economic growth – if all goes well – of 5% Wow. US Economic growth certainly has easy comparables due to a bad 2020, but a 5% growth rate is really strong and if occurs would help with our Capital Markets growing into their clothes thesis.

Biggest breaking comment, Kaplan believes the FED will at minimum speak of easing on asset purchases and again if all goes well is interested in higher rates later this year – Wow, another big news comment. Recall our concerns if rates get ahead of the Fed and they are forced to chase them down, could be strong headwinds… From our perch this is good news.

Oddly, most major Financial Firms are saying the likely stimulus coming soon will help, but when that runs out a slowing may occur …. someone is wrong !

We will be watching!

Kaplan firmly stated that continued stimulus through asset purchase AND low rates will do more harm than good if continued too long …. We agree, inflated asset prices and excessive risk taking does not work out well.

Best Question – What is Biggest Risk to Economy in 2021?

This question was by far the best and Kaplan’s comment that too slow of Vaccine rollout were both elegantly stated.

Kaplan expressed some concerns with the speed of the current rollout but expected/hoped for acceleration in short order, as we all do.

Kaplan, as a firm believer in higher education, our resident state of Texas is not at the top of the rung on this one, he mentioned several times improving the education system especially as it relates to technology will likely increase productivity in the decades to come.

There you have it, some Breaking News and some Good News!

Have a Great “Kaplan Townhall Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Kaplan Town Hall Review … Second Most Recent FOMC Update Meeting Last Week… Procrastination Leads to Lucky Update

As mentioned in our embarrassing post here recently The Dallas Federal Reserve had a Town Hall meeting with special guest speaker Dallas federal president reserve Robert Kaplan.

One of our favorite things to do is listen to people like Robert Kaplan in less public venues in order to try and get their candid or less guarded opinions.

This will make the 10th article talking about Kaplan and as such you may notice that we are pretty big fans.

Kaplan Town Hall Candid Comments

What was interesting about this town Hall meeting was that Kaplan for the first time since his tenure at the FOMC dissented about the federal reserves decision due the fact the the FOMC made a three pronged approach for their interest rate movement decisions.

What do we mean? In the released report from the FOMC chaired by Jerome Powell but with Robert Kaplan a voting member at the meeting they released the following unique statement

1. We intend on having interest rates lower for longer – In Kaplan’s opinion and ours, that was enough

2. We will keep interest rates lower even if inflation ticks up – this is the comment that Kaplan had an issue with and we do as well as we have written multiple times ( here here here and here ) that inflation may actually raise its head , Kaplan agreed!

3. Until a very lower rate of unemployment. is established we will also wait to raise rates

That’s just too many strings to attach to the FOMC and to especially hand over to future decisions makers!

Kaplan, during the Town Hall Event

Maybe the reason we like Kaplan so much is he seems to think very much like we do and have similar concerns. By attaching these three points together future Federal Reserve board members are being bound by a multi point limitation that could cause problems. What if one of these points gets dramatically above target but another is not thereby limiting the increase in interest rates?

Kaplan … like us, believes that there is a time in the not too distant future where interest rates will need to be raised and normalized not only for inflation limitations but also for industries that rely on higher interest rates.

Kaplan also mentioned that low interest rates for too long of a period of time may cause people to take greater risks than they otherwise would.

Lastly, Kaplan once again seeing eye to eye with our beliefs, said that low interest rates for too long of a period of time becomes not only helpful but a stimulus that is unneeded once the economy gets rolling.

Time will tell but once again we like Kaplan’s thoughts on higher interest rates potentially sooner rather than later but likely a year or so out!

Updated Thoughts From More Recent FOMC Statement

So time flew past us on getting this post to you, but in true making Lemonade out of Lemons fashion, something neat occurred….

Our Procrastination lead to a Lucky Update!

Last week, the FOMC released their latest statement here and guess what?

No strings like the prior meeting, just simple slow economy stuff and, Kaplan voted FOR the opinion… no dissenting this time.

Maybe the FOMC members have already backed down from their prior “Strings Attached” discussion!

Have a Great “Kaplan FOMC” Update!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Finally Taxes are Done … Rob Kaplan Federal Reserve Chair Town Hall Personal Embarrassment …

Whew…. that was easy…. NOT!

Finally we can say goodbye to 2019 taxes … Wednesday Marked the due day for personal Federal Income Tas Extensions.

Luckily (where work and opportunity cross – neat saying heard recently) in the fall of 2019 we went through EVERY taxable portfolio and confirmed tax basis – both reported and unreported to the IRS…. never knowing what this year would bring. This exercise effectively minimized tax documents to one report per account.

Glad we are done!

A Nerd Incident with Robert Kaplan and the Dallas Federal Reserve

On Wednesday of this week, yours truly attended a Virtual Town Hall chaired by Robert Kaplan (pretty big Fan, here is a link to nine articles we have written for those interested).

In true nerd multitasking form, the Zoom meeting started, on the Cell, why not listen while jogging? Cell inserted into runners band on arm and away we go!

Expect comments on the talk, it was very good and interesting…..

Post jog, cell back off runners arm band and onto the couch as the live question and answer session had commenced.

Then this:

Next Question is from John!

Quick glance to the cell and an Unmute flashing button was covering my entire screen! Yikes

“John you must Unmute your device

Twice from the moderator then twice from Robert Kaplan

With no question, the Unmute button was not going to be touched! Finally after what was likely 5 seconds, but felt like 5 awkward minutes, the moderator and Kaplan moved on!

Whew, embarrassing moment averted… or was it!

A question or two later and then this:

“Ok, that was our last question, let’s go back to John and see if we can get his question answered!

Oh No!!!!

This time the Zoom video was shut off before the Unmute logo hit the phone screen….

Can’t make this up!

Hope you enjoyed a nerds chance encounter with Robert Kaplan and maybe even got a chuckle.

Enjoy your Friday, and your weekend …. going to be chilly for the first time in our neck of the woods…. talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Private Client Event with Robert McTeer, Former Dallas Federal Reserve President

You and a close friend are invited to

A Private Client Fireside Chat With

Robert McTeer

Former Dallas Federal Reserve President

Presented By J.K. Financial, Inc.

April 28th, 2012 2 pm Park Cities Hilton – Royal Room

5954 Luther Lane- Parking at BBVA Compass

Across the Street from J.K. Financial, Inc. Offices

Very Important – Please RSVP By:  4-23-12

cathy@jkfinancialinc.com

214-706-4300

Reflections From A Speaking Experience to Future Investment Professionals, Glad To Speak to Your Group

As mentioned earlier, on Saturday, February 17, 2011 I had the opportunity to speak to a large group of Graduate students in the statewide TIPS competition.

After a short 45 minute speaking engagement titled “In the Trenches with Private Wealth Management” alongside my friend, fellow portfolio manager, and planner, Leah Bennett, I again was rewarded with the wonderful feeling of accomplishment associated with helping people, in this case, future investment professionals of our society.

Glad to Speak to Your Group !

If a group you may know of, or may be a part of, has a need for a financial based speaking engagement, I would be glad to speak to your group. Those who may be reading this and are not familiar with our speeches, here are a few quick titles. We have fun with the speeches and NEVER talk product or sales (easy to do since we do not have any products to sell.)

  1. Investing Basics to Advanced decisions
  2. Most Common Financial Planning Mistakes
  3. How to Allocate Your 401k
  4. What You Need to Know If You Are About to Retire

One of the Most Nervous Speeches I Have Had

In full disclosure, I was more nervous before this event than I had been in many years. My concern was that students (shorter attention spans these days) would find it boring or too slow. With an audience full of future investment advisors, the bulk of my talk was a self chosen “day in the life” of my world.  I outlined a full day from waking to sleep.  To my relief, students expressed great interest, and my fellow portfolio manager Leah, expressed many of the same thoughts. It was a win, win, wonderful speaking experience!

Favorite Questions From The Audience

  • “What single most important item have you learned from your investment management years?”  Leah and I both agreed on this, She/I are more conservative investors.
  • “What is your favorite sources of news?” Financial Times over Wall Street Journal, Wire Services, and Econoday, CNBC Trails deeply due to sensationalism.
  • “What does it take to be a successful investor?” Again, Leah and I totally agreed on this; Have a constant passion for the industry! We both mentioned in our off time, we constantly read an educate ourselves about the industry, changes, and new occurrence (it’s not work, more like a fun treasure hunt.)

Rather than test YOUR attention span on a super long post,  I will discuss very interesting comments (first I have ever heard from a Fed Official publicly) from the key-note Dallas Fed Reserve speaker Dr. Harvey Rosenblum.

Thanks for reading and have a Super Day !

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

An Evening with Richard Fisher, President and CEO of The Dallas Federal Reserve

Last night, I had the opportunity to listen to Richard Fisher, current CEO and President of the Dallas Federal Reserve and FOMC voting member in a CFA related event.

CEO Dallas Federal Reserve

Mr. Fisher’s comments were on record (reporters in attendance) unlike many prior events, and as such I am delightfully bringing you some of the more impactful comments, from my perspective.

Mr. Fisher began his speech by speaking of many of the statistics regarding the Dallas Federal Reserve bank, which I will conclude with in this post. Due to space limitations, and many readers possible short attention spans, due to time constraints, I will begin with his most interesting comments, again from my perspective.

Most of his more insightful comments came during the questions period, which I am prioritizing from my perspective.

A question from an Forex trader (foreign currency) concerning China becoming the dominant currency?  Mr. Fisher replied, from his point of view that in no way would the Chinese currency become the dominant currency in the near future, and he backed this comment with an interesting statistic that 80% of all Forex transactions involve the US, along with 37% being the Euro. Mr. Fisher did mention that the US became the dominant currency in a mere 20 years, leaving the door open for change.

A question was asked if the US markets have become “junkies“, needing more easing to sustain themselves. Mr. Fisher answered adamantly “There will be no more Quantitative Easing”.  Mr. Fisher did not vote on the latest easing initiative, however he stands firm with his fellow governors that it was a good idea, but adamantly said there will be no more easing! In an interesting follow-up to this comment, which we very much agree with, he stated that market participants are manic-depressive, being on one end of the happy/sad spectrum at all times, and nothing in between.  Admitting that there was in deed a slowdown, which was an answer to a contagion question of Greece, Spain etc, but stating he felt “nothing even remotely close” to what we have been through over the last terrible recession.  We agree!

An interesting and important statement came from the following unrelated question “Should the Fed have a dual mandate?” (Currently the Fed has a mandate of stability AND employment, which is very unique to most reserve banks across the globe.) Mr. Fisher answered, in his opinion, “NO”, but that is the Fed’s current marching orders. He went on to mention that the Fed may, and will, if necessary take back (read–stop inflation) funds from the system if necessary to slow overheating, even if unemployment is still at a higher than comfortable level. This is an extremely important point in my mind and should serve as a warning shot over our bow for future reference.

In an interesting openness of how the Fed Policy meetings run currently (we have written on this before, some time ago, but felt it worth updating) Mr. Fisher gave the following three round analysis of how a Fed Meeting works.

  • Round 1. All Fed Governor’s state what is going on in their district and have an unlimited time to discuss their district’s situation.
  • Round 2. An all in visit on “What we should do?” about the current situation.
  • Round 3. A detailed discussion on “What we should say?” which is reviewed and discussed to an every word detail. Followed up by preperation for Chairman Bernanke’s new media interview, which we have mentioned before.  Mr. Fisher added a funny comment that Chairman Bernanke has a photographic memory, which himself and several others discovered as their prior comments had been repeated by Mr. Bernanke and questioned why the current change.

If you are still with me, you know this short, timely, post, has run much longer than I expected, so I will save further comments for a short follow-up article, (much to Kathy, our Newsletter editor’s dismay), in our soon to print Third Quarter 2011 Newsletter. Sorry for the long post, but I hope you enjoyed the insights as much as I did his visit.

Have A Terrific Day!

JK