Tag Archives: Debt Ceiling

May 2023 Audio Video Review – Buffet/Munger Words of Wisdom, Debt Ceiling, – Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Posted on May 31, 2023 by | Leave a comment

Hello and Welcome to our May 2023 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

May 2023 Video –


YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Berkshire Hathaway – Buffett Munger Words to Live By

In this post Charlie Munger and Warren Buffet are discussed in great details… along with a secret to speeding the time to listen (1.75x speed)…..

Main thoughts to live by from Charlie and Warren:

  • The world is full of foolish gamblers, and they will not do as well as the patient investor.
  • If you don’t see the world the way it is, it’s like judging something through a distorted lens.
  • All I want to know is where I’m going to die, so I’ll never go there. And a related thought:
    Early on, write your desired obituary – and then behave accordingly.
  • If you don’t care whether you are rational or not, you won’t work on it. Then you will stay
    irrational and get lousy results.
  • Patience can be learned. Having a long attention span and the ability to concentrate on one
    thing for a long time is a huge advantage.
  • There is no such thing as a 100% sure thing when investing. Thus, the use of leverage is dangerous. A string of wonderful numbers times zero will always equal zero.

Particularly added this as just last week, saw a review of the meeting that completely missed several of these points in my opinion.

Capital Market Comments –

Debt Ceiling Fizzle- All done until after next elections

With several comments from the field, we spoke multiple times, here and here about the Debt Ceiling, the history and the most likely outcome…

Much of our confidence on the matter comes from our contacts that we have developed over the years that try to give us a 100% straight scoop as much as possible…. They could always be wrong, but being numbers folks, we go with the odds…

They were right, once again!

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of June !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

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Posted in Audio, Economy, Education, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Monthly Review, Podcast, Video

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Debt Ceiling History/Thoughts … Pools Ready to Open in our Neighborhoods … Memorial Day on the Horizon …

Posted on May 19, 2023 by | Leave a comment

Would you believe or be surprised to know the US had raised the debt ceiling aka Increased their Credit line some 90 times since the 20th Century? Probably not….

Most including ourselves believe this will get resolved… but there may be drama…. seems more the norm …

By Wikideas1 – Own work https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/debt-to-the-penny/debt-to-the-penny, CC0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=131990039

We know the history very well and will not bore you with the things that have happened in the last three or so decades…. just know headlines may be …. ahhhh… dramatic next week!

Speaking of dramatic …. but on a more fun note… Who let the pools out ? Next week!

Memorial Day Weekend Beckons

Next weekend marks the opening of pools, the very wonderful remembrance of those that allow us to safely ponder things like debt ceilings and a long weekend to boot…

Ahhh…that is all next week …. today is a Fun Friday, near the end of the school year for our clan… Enjoy and talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

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Posted in Debt - Debt Management, Economy, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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Washington Came through … Finally … Camp Out Weekend

Posted on October 18, 2013 by | 3 comments

Not a minute too soon if the actual close time was October 17th, 2013 … politicians came through and agreed on the debt ceiling and a restart of the US Government.

February 7, 2014 is the new Watch Day

The compromise reached pushed out much of the decision-making until early February.  Depending on the US Economic situation, this may be a better Kick the Cansituation than prior push outs (recall we have done this several times before). With a strong economy (our probable thought) it should be an easy decision, and if weaker, a quick resolution might be in the cards as well.  By the way, just because we have a strong economy, does not mean a strong capital market next year … for another day.

BUT, THAT IS NOW NEXT year and today is a Friday, leading into a weekend. I find myself headed to an Adventure Guides campout this weekend, certain to bring floods to our destination. For me, camping out means no wifi or ESPN, unfortunately this is a REAL campout … cabin, no shower, open fired cooked food … the Sunday return clean up and sports viewing will be much-anticipated.

Have a Great Friday and a Super Weekend!

John Kvale

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

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US Government Shutdown…short note

Posted on October 1, 2013 by | Leave a comment

With a lot to say this week we will keep this short. Obviously the respective parties did not see our C’mon note last Friday. Various parts of the US Government shut down last night with political swords clashing.

It may seem weird that capital markets are not acting bad. The assumption at this time is this will be short-lived and we have been here before. The longer this goes on, the greater certain companies, industries and our economy will feel the pain. At least we are not overrunning our budget!

Markets WILL eventually throw a temper tantrum if this continues, which it looks like is what is going to need to happen for the swords to be dropped.

Buckle Up ! We are happily driving carefully, but potholes exist.

Watching Interest rates for problems….Ignore the noise….Next hurdle October 17, Debt Ceiling Day.

Have a Good Day!

John Kvale

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

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A Debt Ceiling Friday … C’mon guys … Blackrock, Newsletter, FT …

Posted on September 27, 2013 by | 2 comments

If you could approve your own credit limit and you REALLY needed it to pay…say….payroll, inventory, or your alarm system, would you ?

Debt Ceiling Friday

There will be much political talk over the next few weeks as we enter one of the more scarier months (for some crazy reason, October has been a stinker on capital markets at times, not withstanding Halloween, again a family fav….haha) of the markets, however we feel strongly an increase in the debt limit is in the cards.Debt Ceiling

Officially or unofficially the US Treasury announced yesterday we will be out of money on October 17, 2013…again we think this is resolved although political swords will be drawn and clash in the interim.

So we say in closing, C’mon guys, let’s pass something sooner rather than later!

Blackrock, Newsletter, FT Article

Shortly we will review a nice lunch meeting with Karen Shenone of Blackrock who spoke at length about interest rates (we like Blackrock as they said the EXACT same things we said about rates, not to mention they are huge and have some of the brightest minds on Wall Street.)

The Newsletter is finished early, mostly due to the travel schedule of our editor, not my expeditious writing,  and it looks fabulous. If you want a sneak peek, check out our new page here on our blog site.

We owe you more information on the very neat FT Inheritance article, but knowing you did not have near enough time for another post, we held off.  Not to worry, our humble pie will make sure we revisit!

But all of that is next week…Today is a Friday, enjoy your day and your weekend!

John Kvale

PS I will be out in the afternoon today!

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225 

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Summer Doldrums, We Don’t Think So !

Posted on May 11, 2012 by | Comments Off on Summer Doldrums, We Don’t Think So !

Even though my 7 and 4 year old swear summer is upon us (counting down the days), which often makes for a dull time in the capital markets, we think this will be an interesting summer.

US tax issues, debt ceilings, “Pain in Spain” (insert numerous other little brother country name) and an election for the US should keep the cobwebs from forming this summer.

We were a little light on comments this week (this being the 3rd), but promise to make it up to you next week. A 90 day treadmill update, along with a few summer saving ideas lead our list of “to do’s for the coming week.

Once again we thank those who made Robert McTeer’s article of questions this week, well done, we are still very impressed!

Until next week, we thank you all for reading our work and wish you a wonderful weekend!

JK

PS : If you have a friend that needs financial related help, send them our way, we are glad to assist in any way and thank those who have already done so!

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

 

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Debt Ceiling Agreement, Trumped By Economics

Posted on August 2, 2011 by | Comments Off on Debt Ceiling Agreement, Trumped By Economics

At this time it appears fairly certain the debt ceiling issue will be resolved, at least in the short-term. It has been very interesting to see the amount of time our political representatives have had both in front of the camera, and behind closed doors to hammer out an agreement.

As we mentioned in our last post, it now appears that the possible debt ceiling stalemate/discussion has led to a cautious tone in our economy.

Earlier in the year possible economic growth headwinds included the terrible Japan disaster and higher gasoline prices. These items are not in the way this time, leaving the initial negative economic news (Durable Goods, GDP, ISM Manufacturing, Personal Income/Spending) most likely a result of the debt ceiling debate.

In closing, recall we are still in the middle innings of the normal summer doldrums, and trudging through the 90 day treadmill otherwise known as quarterly earnings (update soon, but so far looking pretty good.) Or said another way “When the cat is away the mice will play“, and there are many cat’s away on summer vacations!

Have a Great Day!

JK

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Debt Ceiling Update II, “Don’t Let Your Children Grow Up to Be Politicians”

Posted on July 29, 2011 by | Comments Off on Debt Ceiling Update II, “Don’t Let Your Children Grow Up to Be Politicians”

In and attempt to decipher the continuous stream of information concerning the debt ceiling, we are posting another commentary concerning the subject, apologies to those who are already fatigued on the subject.

With the NFL talks settling shortly over their time line, we continue to believe there will be at best a last-minute settlement or maybe even a miss on the Geithner Aug 2, imposed deadline.

Be Prepared, A Scouts Motto:

We believe Geithner and the Treasury have a back up plan and various rumors (not worth commenting on) are now circulating on the subject. Putting ourselves in Treasury Secretary Tim’s shoes, we would quietly sit on the sidelines allowing the pressure to build on a budget resolution. In preparation for a possible delay, again looking through Mr. Geithner’s eyes, a back up plan would be a must, and we strongly believe he has something in his pocket but hidden for pressure reasons at this time.

Debt Ceiling Debate Creeping into the Economic Numbers:

Unfortunately this debt ceiling debate has carried on long enough CFO’s across the country are rightly pulling in their wings on spending. Can you blame them? Given the last several years of ups and down.

Several economic numbers, durable goods and this morning’s GDP report being the most significant are reporting slower growth, which we believe is a function of the overhang from the debt ceiling debates.

Interestingly, as our political representatives attempt to compromise for the better of our country, the delays are actually having the exact opposite effect, slowing our economy. We believe this debt ceiling self imposed slow down is short-term and not worthy of extreme fear, but certainly worthy attention, which we will give.

While we approve of the debate and discussion system of the US approving and determining decisions, in Waylon and Willie Mama knock off version we might not desire our “Children Grow Up To Be Politicians” at this time.

Have a Great Day!

JK

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The Debt Ceiling, An Update

Posted on July 27, 2011 by | Comments Off on The Debt Ceiling, An Update

As we near the Geithner deadline of Aug 2 for a debt ceiling increase, it appears the two political sides have defined their positions clearly, yet not begun to compromise and move towards a mutual agreement. This delay does not surprise us in the least bit, and appears on track to meet our “Human Nature” defined time line.

Our thoughts on the time line:

Just as the NFL agreements went a few days over the line in the sand, we would not be surprised to see our Aug 2 deadline come and go without an increase. We do feel strongly an increase will come sooner rather than later.

So what happens if an agreement is not met?

If an agreement is not met and a default (highly unlikely in our opinion) occurs, while no one knows exactly what would happen, we think business as usual would transpire and upon the first medicare and social security shortfall in payments (a few “calls to your congressman” would be promptly made), politicians would be quick to resolve this issue. Money in the system will continue to move, leaving banks free to lend, gas stations free to pump, and water to flow into our homes.

What are the long-term effects?

The US political policies are unique to many foreign countries, and certainly not without problems, however, debate (sometimes heated) is the method of compromise.  This “Human Nature” delay, will cause confusion among some of our trading partners.

The credit rating agencies have now rattled the sword enough, in order to save face, we believe, they will be forced to lower our credit rating which may lead to longer term higher rates, but not immediately.

We believe that the conversation this debt ceiling raise has created is a good thing. The US economy is nearer to an air craft carrier (very slow to turn) than a fighter jet, and the discussion that has ensued, and will continue, is an excellent step in the correct direction for becoming a more financially stable economy and country.

In closing, we believe the sky is not falling, and this will pass, along with the many dramatic negative possibilities, but might be a step in the right direction.

Have a Great Day!

JK

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Debt Ceiling and NFL Talks, It’s Just Human Nature !

Posted on July 21, 2011 by | Comments Off on Debt Ceiling and NFL Talks, It’s Just Human Nature !

Not withstanding the bureaucratic implications and responsibilities of our political representatives, we find it interesting that the NFL meetings are in a similar position (down to the wire) as the debt ceiling dicussions.

The debt ceiling, is of course, much more important to the US Economy, however, the parallels of these two are interesting.

There is a reason the post office used to stay open late (prior to electronic filing) on the last day of tax due dates.

Human nature, the smoldering flame that becomes the fire, or the leverage that abounds as the deadlines get closer, it seems to be “Human Nature” to have these types of decisions run to the end.

We continue to believe the Debt Ceiling issue will be resolved favorably, but with summer doldrums in full effect, the capital markets may move similar to a jack rabbit taking their que from each positive or negative story.

For the NFL fans among us (present party included) we hope the negotiations are resolved and we have no opinion on the outcome other than, “Its Just Human Nature!”

Have a Great Day!

JK

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