With earnings being the ultimate driver of Capital Markets it’s always good to stick our heads down into the weeds occasionally to see how corporate managers are navigating the waters.
Our favorite go-to source for this information is from our friends at Factset, a research arm that does terrific tracking …
Here are a few charts with our notes:
This following is an estimate of Earnings for the remainder of 2019 and for the year 2020 – notice expectations are positive year over year 2018 to 2019 but not much growth is expected from the analyst community – Tariff agreement would likely change this expectation quickly…
Next up, how the change in estimates has occurred in real time – take note of the drop near the end of the year 2018 – while it looks like a larger than normal drop, and we prefer it increasing, it is only about a 5% total expected drop but again still a year over year increase as seen from the prior chart.
Lastly, we had to throw one of our favorite charts in from our friends at JPMorgan – the lagging blue line, that actually looks out of place, is the current market expansion rate – note how slow this expansion (2007-current) has been. We find this very interesting as even the 2001 expansion was at a much faster pace than our current. Could we be entering an extended period of slower, but more stable growth? This would also speak to lessened concerns of inflation and lowered expectations moving forward…
Overall, lets give corporate managers an A to almost A+, especially those dealing with overseas trading partners of any kind.
Have a Great “Update Earnings” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
$treet-¢ents 
Market Valuation Update … How are we doing? Forward PE Ratio Review
As mentioned multiple times … with recent examples here and here by almost any metric Capital Market valuations have been and are stretched.
As a reminder this does not mean that markets have to come tumbling down to earth … just that heightened risks of sharper declines may be possible. Also as a reminder, just like our teenager with oversized clothes grows into them … as earnings increase faster than Capital Markets rise, valuations can come back in line! YAY
Updated Valuation Metric from our Friends at JPMorgan
And while still stretched take note of the very far right of the graph as it has smartly turned over as earnings outpaced Capital Market Growth
This is why the Graph is moving in a better direction – huge expected earnings in view….
Nice….
Still no time to swing for the fences, which we never do- but good progress…
Have a Great “Better Valuations” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents
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Posted in Earnings, Economy, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged Earnings, Earnings Season, Forward PE, JPMorgan, Market Valuation, Markets, PE Ratio