Tag Archives: Earnings

Capital Markets Ignore … Short Week Concludes … Friday Tennis Weekend

Capital Markets are the ultimate voting machine. Frequently they are VERY irrational, often times they act temperamental, other times they just ignore and move on.

With the recent flexing of various international military muscles and “Breaking News” headlines, Capital Markets …. and their participants, are just moving on down the road and focusing on earnings … which is really what they are supposed to do. NICE!

Short Week

With the celebration of July 4th on Tuesday, Wednesday felt like Monday, making Thursday feel like Tuesday and today …. Oh Boy … Not really sure what day it is. Friday? Yes..

Friday Tennis Weekendtennis-2042723__340

Wimbledon …. Yes it will be going on this weekend, but a more important Tennis weekend to your present party … a National Tournament in a neighboring state (Travels , all good) .. Win our go home, once again, puts the journey into next week if the former occurs…

Ahhh, that is looking into next week and this is a Friday, smack in the middle of Summer. It goes fast, enjoy, relax and spend time with those special!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

 

The Importance of Energy Companies to the US Economy

Not so many quarters ago with oil booming and the price of oil going to $144/barrel many including ourselves may have missed the importance of Energy Companies on the US as well as global economy.

Here  we reiterated that we thought the trickle down effect may be much greater than many had once thought.

Another Great View from Visual Capitalist

Take a moment to let this chart digest…it truly is amazing.

If you have been following us long you know we love to mix different opinions especially when they point the same direction- this from Factset..

Without Energy, the S&P 500 earnings would be much less.

Before complaining about that fill up… remember these two items.

Have a Great “Energy Growth” day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Earnings, the key to Capital Market Growth … Let’s get an update?

The ultimate driver of Capital Markets are Earnings. Yes, we can argue about interest rates, currencies, world political and economic cycles, but all of these events are only important in how they change earnings or the growth there of “Earnings”.

Let’s take a look at early statistics from 2017!

Earnings Via our Friends at Factset

This from Factset, one of our favorite data aggregators in their regular weekly report.

  • Earnings Growth: For Q1 2017, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 13.6%. If 13.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index since Q3 2011 (16.7%).

Looking closely at the following chart, which is TRAILING earnings, forward looking capital market expectations can be seen. The trailing earnings are actually falling over the last few years, but the forward expectations as noted from the first bullet above are expected to climb more rapidly than the past six years.

5-12-17 Factset EPS change and Price

 

So just where are these revenues that are creating accelerating growth coming from?

5-12-17 Factset Geographic Rev chart

P/E or the Price to Earnings is the most blunt way to measure the valuation of capital markets. A high P/E might mean markets are overvalued and need to grow into their valuations, or a reversion to the mean reset to a lower level may be in the cards.

5-12-17 Factset 12 PE ratio V long term

From Factset’s estimates above, the current market P/E is about 22 with a normal of 16-17, undoubtedly higher than normal but certainly no guarantee of an imminent reversion down to lower levels.

If the growth estimates mentioned in the very first bullet come through in 2017, much of this froth may be taken out of the capital markets.

Either way, we have your back via our good friend diversification!

There you have it, a nice ‘Earnings Update” … We will be watching closely!

Have a great “Earnings Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

April 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning Tax Review and Earnings Update- By John Kvale

Whew, that was easy…. tax season is finally mostly over ….

We wanted to look back one last time on our personal taxes before we sunset those tax strategies for the high point of the season….

As a reminder,  we started with an Audio Podcast format for those that are unable to SEE the video or just prefer to listen to the audio… this makes the review slightly longer, but more descriptive.

Enjoy!

April 2017 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

AMT Tax Reminder

We ran across a lot of AMT or Alternative Minimum Taxes this season

Here are the key thoughts from our detailed post on AMT earlier this month-

  • Incomes between $170k and $313k joint and singles over $100k – you are in the cross hairs of AMT
  • Deferring income may be useful
  • Accelerate income

There is not a lot of planning changes with AMT, but in this case knowledge may be power!

Possible MAJOR tax reform

Late in the month an overview of major tax reform was released.

Here is a link from the White House

Here is a link from Barron’s that does a pretty good analysis

Here is our article on the possibilities earlier this month

What to do if you overfund your 401k/retirement plan

In our overfunding 401k post here, we discuss how your 401k/retirement plan can get overfunded….. here are the main points

  • Refund the extra amount ASAP
  • Apply the extra to the new year
  • If its a super small amount, its not the end of the world

Capital Market Comments

First Double Digit Earnings growth since 2011 expected

From our friends at Factset, who do a terrific job of outlining historic and future earnings.

Earnings are the ultimate driver of capital markets!

4-27-17 SP earnings estimates - Factset

What is nice about these estimates are that historically companies have been beating the street estimates … if this continues, the actual earnings may be even better double digit growth…. time will tell and we will be watching!

Hello May!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com,

Earnings Update – Good Update!

Earnings are the ultimate driver of higher equity/stock prices. All other items being equal (which they rarely are, but go with me here) better earnings lead to higher stock prices.

Sometimes a low bar that can be stepped over leads to better prices.

As you can see by this busy chart… earnings estimates tend to fall as the year passes.

EPS Dardanelles.png

If we happen to not have a decline in earnings as the year goes on…a surprise  based on everyone getting too negative, maybe prices will trend higher? or at least current higher prices are justified? Not forecasting, only saying!

Check this chart out from FactSet:

8-1-16 FactSet rev chart

Revenue growth has been hard to come by…actually almost impossible, but as this chart notes  something is going on… Could a turn be in the mix?

Another reason never to get too negative or two positive…somewhere in the middle!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Light Friday … Thanks for Linking Accounts Vaulters ! Olympics

After a Monthly Video and a rather large mid-week Vault Sizzling post, we decided to be easy on your eyes ahead of the weekend.

Speaking of Sizzling Vaults… PAT YOURSELVES ON THE BACK.. Great work to all of those who linked accounts to their Vault.. WELL DONE !

We promised an earnings review last week that we will deliver next week. The delay has given us more ammunition toward our possible beliefs…. Good Stuff !!!

But that is next week and this is Friday .. Enjoy your weekend and Day !

Good Luck to all of the Olympic participants, looking forward to opening ceremony tonight!

Talk to you next week !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Oil and Energy? Factset Estimates

No doubt energy has been left for dead.

Why hold energy investments as the world crashed around them?

There will be more pain…BUT

Three charts from Factset, an accumulator of estimates and reports:

Energy certainly has the lead in earnings surprises

4-29-16 Sector level surpises

Wow…..

Of course it is not all peaches and cream … THIS year’s estimates:

4-29-16 2016 Growth Estimates

Next Year’s Estimates …

4-29-16 2017 Growth Estimates

Wow….did we say wow !

What if they are only 50% correct ? Of course coded forecast !

Never go “All in or All out!”

Have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com