With earnings being the ultimate driver of Capital Markets it’s always good to stick our heads down into the weeds occasionally to see how corporate managers are navigating the waters.
Our favorite go-to source for this information is from our friends at Factset, a research arm that does terrific tracking …
Here are a few charts with our notes:
This following is an estimate of Earnings for the remainder of 2019 and for the year 2020 – notice expectations are positive year over year 2018 to 2019 but not much growth is expected from the analyst community – Tariff agreement would likely change this expectation quickly…
Next up, how the change in estimates has occurred in real time – take note of the drop near the end of the year 2018 – while it looks like a larger than normal drop, and we prefer it increasing, it is only about a 5% total expected drop but again still a year over year increase as seen from the prior chart.
Lastly, we had to throw one of our favorite charts in from our friends at JPMorgan – the lagging blue line, that actually looks out of place, is the current market expansion rate – note how slow this expansion (2007-current) has been. We find this very interesting as even the 2001 expansion was at a much faster pace than our current. Could we be entering an extended period of slower, but more stable growth? This would also speak to lessened concerns of inflation and lowered expectations moving forward…
Overall, lets give corporate managers an A to almost A+, especially those dealing with overseas trading partners of any kind.
Have a Great “Update Earnings” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
More Positive Data Points …. Factset Earnings … JOLTS Job Openings … PPI Producer Prices …
As promised, last week, we have some more good data points….
Again, we feel Market Participants maybe a bit overzealous here … expect bumps …
BUT … the earnings and economic front are showing good data points…
S&P 1 Month Earnings Estimates From Our Friends at Factset
Take note of the usual guide down historically in this chart, with this months most recent, bucking the trend… Nice
JOLTS – Job Openings and Labor Turn Over – aka Jobs Available
The Jolts report is a good measure of the possible jobs available in the US Economy (Watched closely by the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee – The FED)
What is important about this report, is the expectation was for about 4.9 million jobs and the actual came FAR ahead at 5.9 million … Nice X 2
PPI – Producer Price Index – Price of Production Items
Lastly and briefly, so as not to have you think you have fallen into an Economics class….haha
The PPI is a broad measure of domestic producer sales prices… when it’s going up, there is demand and more importantly when down, slack…
There are various ways to measure this Economic report (Core, Month over month, year over year, %) … all measurements beat their estimates handily …. Nice X 3!
There you have it… some nice market and economic numbers for your summer hump day!
Have a Great “Economics Beating Expectations” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents
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Posted in Economy, FOMC, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged Earnings, Factset, JOLTS, PPI