Tag Archives: Econoday

April 2016 Video, Economic and Capital Market Monthly Review, By John Kvale

Here is our April 2016, all new…trendy format Monthly Economic and Capital Market Review, along with a Video for your viewing and listening pleasure. Hope you are enjoying!

 April 2016 Video

Financial Planning Tip – The Estate Plan

Estate Docs Summary

Recently we came across the fact that we did not have a post with a summary of Estate Planning Docs. Here is a link to the detailed explanation of each.

The documents needed:

  • Wills
  • Power of Attorney
  • Healthcare Power of Attorney
  • HIPPA
  • Living Will
  • Trusts

A good Estate Plan will likely include most of these documents.

Economic Update

US Dollar Takes a rest

After a scorching run (much stronger) in 2014 and early 2015, the US Dollar has slowed it’s ascent. While travelers abroad have enjoyed a stronger translation of currency, headwinds have occurred in many other ways.

  • International Company profits struggle
  • Commodity weakness
  • Foreign holdings sag in value
  • Foreign Countries holding US debt saw increased amounts
  • China devalue the US peg, slowly

4-29-16 US Dollar 1- year

 

GDP Update

The first Quarter of 2016, Gross Domestic Production (the broadest measure of economic growth/production) was revised to .5%.  The Federal Reserve members want this much higher, think 2% plus.

As can be seen this number is volatile and for some reason has been showing a rather weak first quarter reading the past several years.

Two consecutive negative readings of GDP are the definition of a recession.

 4-28-16 GDP Econoday

Capital Markets Update

Commodities

After dropping to $26 and change in February, oil breached $45 a barrel this latest month. It is highly possible that when we look back on the affects of this extremely low oil price had on our economy, it MAY have been much greater than we ever expected.

Oil related tentacles may have gone much more broad than measured. Another benefactor of the stable/weaker US dollar.

 

4-29-16 Crude Front Futures

 

International Markets

Little brother international markets, more commonly known as Emerging Markets may be getting their feet under them. Tossed out and left for dead, these markets may have the strongest long term growth potential in the world.

4-28-16 EEM

Never go all in or all out !

 

Have a Great Day!

See you again at the end of May !

John A. Kvale

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
JK Street Cents Logo

 

 

March 2016 Video, Monthly Review, Tax Tip By John Kvale

What a different a month (or two) can make. Here is our March 2016, all new…trendy format Monthly Capital Market Review and last minute tax tips, along with a Video for your viewing and listening pleasure. Hope you are enjoying!

 March 2016 Video

 

 

Final Reminder Tax Tip

As Moto Moto said in Madagascar, these tips are so good we had to say them twice!

Our favorite tax savings ideas that still work for last year (2015 taxes):

  • Itemize your standard tax deduction
  • HSA- Health Savings Account
  • Fund an IRA
  • Simplified Employee Pension – SEP deduction/contribution against non W-2 income (1099)

Tax Fraud Alert

As noted here, last month we had our first incidence of fraud in February. We are now up to 9.5 so far, as we have one incident that we think was fraud, but could not be proven!

Be sure to keep your guard up!

 

Economic Update

PMI Manufacturing Index

PMI  (Definition: The ISM manufacturing composite index indicates overall factory sector trends. The relevance of this indicator is enhanced by the fact that it is available very early in the month and is not subject to revision.) Graph from our friends at Econoday.

Less than 50 is contraction, greater than 50 is growth.

3-31-16 PMI from Edonoday

Employment Situation

While there was a small increase in unemployment claims late in March, the overall employment picture, via hiring, as can be seen below, again from our friends at Econoday, remains steady. It is worth noting, these reports can be volatile.

3-31-16 Employement Situation from Econoday

Capital Markets Update

Updated Support and Resistance

This Graph, included in our Newsletter, shows the updated Support and Resistance lines and levels of the current market.

As mentioned in our Yellen Speaks post, after telling capital market participants that slower rate increases were more likely (late 2015 she told the world to expect four increases, now only two) capital markets smartly broke through the lower upper resistance. Now, can we go to new highs ? Maybe …

Never go all in or all out !

3-30-16 S&P Chart

Oil and Market Correlation Chart

For those that think oil does not affect the sentiment and capital markets, look at this chart from Liz Saunders :

3-31-16 S&P Crude correlation

Sorry for the motor mouth/fingers … there were a lot of moves worth noting, especially very near the end of the month !

Have a Great Day!

See you again at the end of April !

John A. Kvale

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
JK Street Cents Logo

Hot Hot Economic Number — Friday

A super hot employment number today — Economist expected 180k and 271k for the month were actually reported, puts a rate hike in December on the table — we think !

10-2015 Econoday Employment report

 

Ahhh … but today is a Friday ! Have a great weekend !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

 

Fantastic Economic Number – US Continues to Hire – Equity Market Still Frothy

On July 3, 2014, another positive economic report continued to shed light towards a positive USA recovery.

288k Americans Hires V Expectations of 211k

The non-farm payroll for June beat expectations and prior estimates were revised upward. With a headline hire number of 280k for the month versus and expectation of 211k, this provides further evidence of a growing US economy … This is Fantastic and much needed news.

From our friends at Econoday

Released On 7/3/2014 8:30:00 AM For Jun, 2014
Prior Prior Revised Consensus Consensus Range Actual
Nonfarm Payrolls – M/M change 217,000 224,000 211,000 199,000  to 290,000 288,000 
Unemployment Rate – Level 6.3 % 6.3 % 6.2 % to 6.3 % 6.1 %
Average Hourly Earnings – M/M change 0.2 % 0.2 % 0.2 % to 0.3 % 0.2 %
Av Workweek – All Employees 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs 34.5 hrs to 34.6 hrs 34.5 hrs
Private Payrolls – M/M change 216,000 224,000 210,000 195,000  to 285,000 262,000 

We have highlighted the Average Hourly Earnings Change as this is a key indicator for Janet Yellen and the FOMC is watching for their proof of economic improvement. This rate is below their comfort zone at the moment. Currently there is very little wage inflation pressure which conflicts somewhat with a higher total hire number.

Capital Market Reaction

Bonds smartly sold off somewhat on the news which leads to a higher interest rates. Equity Markets, still way ahead of themselves trudged higher albeit on VERY light volume.

Equity markets continue to stay frothy by marching ahead with the good news …. from already lofty levels.

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Crazy GDP Economic Number … Friday

GDP (Gross Domestic Production) is a measure of output of the USA and is released on a quarterly basis. GDP gives us and idea of how the economy is doing.

First Quarter 2014 GDP (-2.9%) for the USA

With two quarters of ANY negative GDP being defined as a recession, the first  quarter of this year’s negative 2.9% stunned us as well as many other investor likes…. Here are the issues:

  • Clearly the harsh winter caused much of this
  • Are we missing something?
  • For the conspiracy theorists, did the adjustments in calculations cause this?
  • It’s a fluke !

Econoday GDP 6-25-14

Far right bar hanging very low …. bounce back next quarter?

Time will tell !!

Ahhh….but today is a Friday heading into a weekend. Do not forget to spend time with those special in your life…. We are almost half way through 2014 !!!

Have a Great Friday and a super weekend !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

 

Happy President’s Day Weekend…The week that was…. Weird Inflection Points

Monday of next week represents the honored holiday for President’s day and as such banks, government entities, capital markets, and most schools will be closed…..as well as our office.Lincoln

The week that was:

State of Union, Baseball Pitchers arrive at training camp, and Ketchup (Buffet takes out Heinz) take the headlines as we wind down a low trading volume week (we think the chinese new year week led to much of the solitude.)

Inflection Points are Weird:

Just a few moments ago as Donald and I discussed (electronically) the conflicting economic reports from today, Empire Manufacturing (blow out good) & Industrial Production (bad), Donald summarized it well “Things get weird at Inflection Points.”  This is what makes it challenging but always fun, this could be a turn for the better OR worse, but only time will tell.

I am still out-of-town and on east coast time, which for this early bird makes for an extra LOOOONG time before things get going in the morning. On an interesting note, I am always amazed at the amount of noise  we intake on a normal day at the office, as it does not exist when traveling out of the office due to time constraints. There is a certain amount of clarity that comes with the muffled noise….

Have a happy Friday and a great weekend…thanks for reading our work this week, see you next week!

JK

214-706-4300
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Durable goods not so durable, something fishy…

The durable goods report, a measure of longer lasting products (think washers and transportation) was not so durable on Thursday of last week. (Here is the actual report and here is the report from Econoday, one you can read.) This August 2012 monthly indicator fell very short of expectations and deep into negative territory.

Either a major pause occurred in August or something was fishy in the numbers. We think possibly both with more emphasis on the latter, but the downward move has caught our eye.  In order to confirm or deny this release we will keep our eyes peeled on the local Federal reserve bank releases. While we do feel the economy is slowing, we do not think it slowed THAT much.

Here is the chart:

Have a Great Monday!

JK

214-706-4300

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com

8222 Douglas Ave # 590

Dallas, TX 75225

Lost in the Headlines, Economic News Getting Better, Brief Earnings News Update

Good Monday morning!

As we enter the teeth of the 90 day treadmill (better known as earnings season), with much of the public commentary focused on our nick named 90 day treadmill, we thought it timely to mention the latest economic information.

Much of the economic reports are coming in better than expected. One of our

Econoday

 favorite sites, from Econoday, does an excellent job of giving detailed information on pending (and historical) domestic and newly important foreign reports. As we mentioned in our Q 4 2010 Performance Cover letter, China, in our opinion, is a very important part of our continued economic mending here in the United States. As such, foreign economic success is also important for us as investors.

Our key important, yet still lagging economic report, is the unemployment picture. (Ya, ya, we always want more, but this remains important to us!) We would like to see payrolls increase thereby lowering the unemployment rate to help give consumers greater confidence in spending (remember, by some estimates, almost 75% of our GDP is consumer related.) As we listen to numerous conference calls during our 90 day treadmill time period, we are encouraged by company management statements concerning job hiring, which may lead to greater hiring, and thereby lower unemployment in the future (albeit at a slow pace.)

Briefly an update on Earnings (90 day treadmill):

According to Thompson Reuters a little less than 20% of the S&P 500 companies have reported so far this season with over 70% beating expectations and only 24% missing, which is good in our opinion.

Later, as we continue deeper into earnings season, we will discuss a few interesting metrics and simplify the process with a few easy “non Wall Street” examples.

Have a Good Week !

JK