Tag Archives: Economic Reports

Three BIG Capital Market Moves Post Election

When a surprise outcome occurs that has crosswinds in capital markets, large moves by capital market players can be seen more clearly.

Post Election Capital Market Movement

Interest Rates, our proxy is the 10 year treasury…. higher rates on the horizon? Possible signal, more growth and higher interest rates across all terms..


Financials…benefactors of possible regulation loosening and higher rates…


Transportation Index moves higher, signaling possible higher growth


When the big money moves it leaves an interesting trail of their thoughts and future bets. So far their bets are generally for higher growth, higher interest rates and a future economic pickup!

Time will tell if the bets are correct!

Good news…diversified portfolios are benefiting from these moves..

Have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.

Average Hourly Earnings … Most Important Item from Tomorrow’s Employment Report

Tomorrow, Friday Dec 5, 2014, one of the most popular monthly economic reports occurs.  While many may focus on the headline employment number, expected around mid 200k, the most important part of the report will highly likely go unnoticed, UNLESS it surprises, especially to the upside.

Average Hourly Earnings

Consumers drive our economy and the majority of consumers have had little wage growth in years.

This from the October 2014, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)

Avg Hourly 12-14

IF this part of the report is higher, as was in August…look for higher rates .. sooner, and good news for the Economy!

Fingers Crossed !!!

Have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225


Traveling Friday … BDay Girls … Annual Extended Remote Trip … Audio Link From Social Security …

As this post goes live, I am finishing a due diligence meeting in the land of the Longhorn. Near noon, a fellow professional (E) whom car pooled together, jump into my car and roll back north to good ole Dallas.

Party OnBirthday Girls (The Twins)

Tonight marks the all important B Day celebration for the Mrs. who also shares the day, of course, with her identical twin. (Party on girls.)

Off to the Mountains – Extended Remote Work

Tomorrow morning, most likely still dark … two kids, two bicycles, the afore mentioned B Day girl (still VERY sleepy) Chacca the dog, supplies,  clothes, and a full car of tethering technology, head to the mountains for our annual extended working remote time to conclude the summer. The road trip is usually half over before anyone is really stirring … Great think time … look out for longer posts next week.. haha

My dad and his wife, a few friends, and a local fellow professional/friend and his family (kids of similar age) join us at our destination city for the entire trip. Lot’s of work talk, hours of daily tennis for Sophia, a few rounds of golf, and tons of family time are certain to make their way into our two households … and one way or another, mentions here too.

Social Security Posts

Social SecurityThis week’s Wednesday Social Security post was the first of it’s kind for us and we are very proud to bring you many more. While some challenges occurred with increasing the volume, cutting the 90 minutes down to just a short clip, and getting the correct format to load here, on our site, we think the hard technology work is behind us.

Break In: The Audio did not come through on all email notifications, but has been posted to the New Social Security Page  here on this site. It is almost a necessity to listen to the audio as Mr. Clark covers so much material so quickly.

Hump days are our targeted weekday for the next several of Social Security and Medicare strategies. 

Have a Great Day and a Super Weekend … Talk to you next week from a higher altitude.

John A. Kvale, CFA, CFP

P.S. Not all Economic Reports (click for sneak peak) are created equal as complacent market participants found out recently … we will detail soon.

P.S.S. Great stuff from the due diligence conference, but I am exhausted by the super long days !!

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

5 Positives This Week, With A Personal Lead Off!

As we posted last week’s positives we felt the crowd beginning to take up residence on our Zig side, while the Zaggers were losing their footing. In the time it takes to snap your fingers, crowds once again left our side and took residence on the dark side, giving us a clear runway for this week’s positives:

So Here We Go:

Congratulations to Randi, Our Newest Full Fledged Attorney: Most of you know Donald’s wife has been completing law school for the last several years. This week brings official notice of what Randi and Donald had known for some time. It is now official, Randi is an attorney, and on her way to becoming one of the top public attorneys in the country. Well done Randi, and thanks for the lead in this week’s positives!

90 Day Treadmillers Continue to Impress: While is seems just like yesterday that earnings season began, it now is coming to an end. Lost in the shuffle of “To Greek or Not To Greek”, was an oustanding performance by publicly traded executives. This positive has gone somewhat unnoticed at this time, but continues to bring value to capital markets at the P, in the P/E multiple. As the P (Price) stays flat and the E continues to grow, values become less expensive. Well Done Fellas!

FOMC, Economy Doing Better: This point is a perfect example of why we Zig while others Zag, click here for the FOMC statement in it’s entirety,  this is the first sentence from the Feds press release:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year.

Here are a few dark side headlines from the next day, again showing why we Zig while others Zag:

Fed Lowers Job Forecast” Wall Street Journal
Fed Lowers US GDP forecast, Mulls More Actions” Economic Times

Here is a fellow Zigger, showing how the exact same item can be viewed in a totally different way:

Upbeat Federal Reserve, Doesn’t Hamper Gold”  The Street

This is just another reminder why we keep on Zigging!

Economic Data Continues to be Positive: Name your economic report this week as Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Productivity, and of course our prior mentioned Fed Policy meeting was positive.  While none of the economic data is roaring, the data continues to “keep it’s feet moving” as our old football coaches used to bark, making for another positive this week in our book!

ECB Cuts Rates: A major positive splash that went unknown and unnoticed. Mario Draghi the newly minted ECB chief made his presence known with a rate cut. Recall, rate cuts are meant to spur growth and are a definite tailwind to economic prosperity. Draghi appears ready to take decisive action over the various big sister and little brother situation, which makes for our final positive of the week!

Stay tuned, and thanks for Zigging with us again this week.

Have a Great Day and a Super Weekend!