Tag Archives: Employment

What Happens When You Get A Decidedly Positive Economic Reading, While Expecting Negative?

Posted on June 8, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Last Friday, June 5, 2020 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its regularly schedule monthly report of hiring and firing report nicked name “The Employment Situation”

Closely followed as a broad measure of the health of the economy and the consumer, experts (so called) from all ports of finance (Economist, bankers, investment bankers, brokers) tally their estimates of what the monthly reading will be.

In all fairness, due to bread crumbs from other reports, usually the forecasts are very close and often garner a quick glance and a carry on to other items attention span.

Fridays expectations were for a loss of just over 7 million folks.

Oops – What Happens When You Miss Big?

With an expectation of ( -7 million) more job losses and announcement of +2.5 million gains, caught Market Participants WAY off guard…

6-5-20 Nonfarmpayroll surprise

Interest Rates took note as well… which is very logical, as rates go up as economic conditions expand…

6-5-20 Us 10 year treasury

Likely ahead of ourselves a bit, but heck it is a start….

Bumps most certainly still ahead… but still a start…

Have a Great “Why We Don’t Forecast Much” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

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Great Economic News – Why Some are Frowning?

Posted on November 5, 2018 by | Leave a comment

On Friday, the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their regularly monthly employment report – this is the first report in some time where ….

“Good News is Bad News?” 

Here is why some believe this!

Good Economic News  = Bad News?

Last Friday, November 2, 2018 the BLS released their regular monthly employment report that showed terrific economic numbers.

A fantastic, total 3.7% unemployment rate.

11-2-18 BLS Emp Report

In addition to the above Unemployment level, average hourly earnings were also released and they were up 3.1% year over year — breathing a much needed pay increase to many ….

The bad news for many is that they believe these good numbers will give the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ammunition for continued rate increases.

Currently FOMC members are on record saying they will raise rates in December and three more times next year (2019).

The worry is an eventual inverted yield curve – which we have mentioned many times is a very good precursor to a recession!

11-2-18 90 daty v 10 year fredgraph

By looking at this chart, we are far from an inverted yield curve at this time- leading us to believe this “Good News = Bad News” may be very unwarranted…

Now you know the rest of the story !

Have a Great “Good News is GOOD News” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

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August 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update- By John Kvale

Posted on September 6, 2017 by | Leave a comment

Here is our August 2017 Monthly review.

August 2017 Video

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

1 Minute Video Series – Six of them to be exact

Over the last six weeks we had fun recording our first series of videos on our New Total Vault …. A total of Six to be exact!

  1. Finding your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  2. Resetting the Password on your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  3. Uploading Important Docs to your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  4. Connecting outside Accounts to your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  5. Running nifty reports from your Cool New TOTAL Vault
  6. Constant Improvements coming from your Cool New TOTAL Vault

All of these can be found using our search feature on our blog here or here at our main website.

Capital Market Comments

The “Natural” rate of Employment/Unemployment

In this post during the month we take a deep look at the Unemployment rate and just why it was not different this time, but why it took so long to normalize.

img_0889

It is not to much of a stretch to think normalization took longer because it has been such a slow recovery. VERY SLOW — this recovery is the far right weak line with the lowest slope.

JPMorgan GDP expansion chart

See you at the end of September.

Happy Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

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Posted in General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Monthly Review, Vault, Video

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Natural Rate Of Unemployment/Employment ?

Posted on August 28, 2017 by | Leave a comment

Post great recession of 07-09, many including ourselves were not certain just what the rate of Employment or Unemployment the US economy would run at in the future.

  • It was different this time many said?
  • Technological advances and replacement would push many out of employment?
  • Aging demographics may push the rates to different/higher/lower levels?

With almost 10 years in the books since the great recession began, we now know just what did change? Not much!

Full Employment/Unemployment history

Taking a look at this chart from FRED a research tank at the St Louise Federal Reserve, while it took longer to get back to historical levels, it finally has.

Granted there can be debates on the scope of the current employment rate, but from a high level measure stick such as this, it looks normal.

This longer term fantastic chart from this research report of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, shows the same.

 

Why did it take so long to normalize?

One good question many have asked is why did it take so long to normalize again?

The great recession was just that, so GREAT, it really put dents in the economy making this one of the slowest recoveries on record.

The weakest recovery line (slowest and lowest in the chart) represents this recovery. (This chart from our friends at JPMorgan.)

JPMorgan GDP expansion chart

The good news about such a slow recovery is that is has also become one of the longest, due to just that fact, slow and gradual, and certainly not overheating!

Have a Great Full Employment Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

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USA Employment Update and Consumer Analysis – NICE!

Posted on May 8, 2017 by | Leave a comment

Consumers are the ultimate driver of an Economy, especially the US economy. By most estimates, the consumer and his/her spending makes up over 66% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Production) a broad measure of economic health.

Here is an interesting analysis of the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) most recent monthly Employment Report … mentioned on our “Break In”  of our Friday post.

Employed Consumer

The highest, most blunt view of employment is the Unemployment rate, usually figured in % total unemployed.

At 4.4%, the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate many, including ourselves thought maybe possible via post great recession!

The little Economy Engine that could!

img_0792
Take this job and shove it

Confident enough to walk away from the job? Sure looks like it.

Said another way, individuals have enough confidence in finding a new job, they are not afraid to walk from their current one.

A new high soon?

 

img_0795

Job Opening- aka JOLTS

Brought to the attention of many by our current Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, the job opening report also known as JOLTS report is showing clear evidence of job opportunities.

This chart helps explain why workers are not afraid to walk from their current job as well (prior chart.)

Jobs are abundant!

img_0800

Total Employment to Population

Certainly the Great Recession has had lingering effects. Focusing on the move upward since 2009, one can see the line heading in the correct direction, possibly giving confidence to those above who are leaving their current job.

Bottom line, a more confident, job opportunistic consumer economy! 

img_0794

Full Circle Now- Higher Spending? Higher GDP?

Going back to our original statement, with so much tailwind for the consumer coming from the employment of the US Economy, it would not be a stretch to think higher spending is in the cards, and a better GDP!

NICE!!

Have a Great “Healthy Consumer Economy” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

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July 2016 Video, Financial Planning Tip and Economic Review- By John Kvale

Posted on August 1, 2016 by | 1 comment

Here is our July 2016, Monthly Economic and Capital Market Review, along with a Video for your viewing and listening pleasure. Hope you are enjoying!

July 2016 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip –

What to do when your identity is stolen

This article was so popular this month we wanted to review it again at a very high level as it made our Financial Planning Tip of the month:

Things to do when your identity is stolen:

  1. Review the Federal Trade Commissions site on Identity Theft and Fraud Alerts
  2. Visit one or all of the credit agencies to alert them to your situation and ask them for a free 90 credit monitoring program (Transunion and here is Experian)
  3. If it was a severe attack and damages occurred, consider a Identity Theft Recovery Plan
  4. Consider a Credit Freeze

Economic Update

Payroll Jumps

We crowed loudly at an outlier payroll report two months ago. As a reminder job hiring AKA Payroll is a measure of the economy. The May report released in June was… well a real stinker. As we mentioned, it just did not add up…..

Vindicated

7-9-16 united-states-non-farm-payrolls

Boom!… Nice bounce back- far right bar!

Have a Great Day!

See you again at the end of August and the beginning of school !

John A. Kvale

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
JK Street Cents Logo

 

 

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Posted in Cyber, Economy, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Monthly Review, Video

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Don’t just do something …. Sit There ! – A Great Employment Report – Jeremy Siegel

Posted on February 10, 2016 by | 1 comment

Liz Saunders, strategist and peer in the industry recently penned a great quote about the current market environment …

Don’t just do something … Sit there !

Given the current market movements it seems hard to do sometimes … and while we are making minor adjustments, NOTHING big!

Last Friday a Super Employment Report

Here is what we have all been waiting for:

  • They are coming back – workers that is
  • Greater overall workers participation rate

 

2-6-16 Participation rate

Unemployment rate falls into the 4’s — 4.9% — NICE

Fewer Unemployed

2-6-15 Unemployment Rate of 4.9%

Best of all — they are getting paid more!

2-6-16 Average Hourly Earning change

With two third of the economy being consumer driven… Can the following be bad?

  • More are working
  • Fewer are unemployed
  • They are FINALLY getting paid more

Just remember …

Markets have predicted something near 9 of the last 5 recessions !

Have a Great Wednesday !  Tonight I get to attend a dinner with Jeremy Siegel .. More to come !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

 

 

 

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Nice Economic Report Adds to Our Theme … Raise those rates Janet!

Posted on February 9, 2015 by | 1 comment

The regular monthly smorgasbord employment report released last Friday (2-5-15), continued our theme (higher rates), with even more positives than we had expected.

Digging Deeper than just the Headlines

While the USA generated 257k (first estimate, will be revised) new jobs for the month of January, the action was elsewhere.

  • Average hourly earnings were up .5%, this is a huge number and very good for the employment situation as employees may FINALLY be getting a raise!
  • Unemployment rate went UP (increasing labor participation rate), but that is because more people entered the workforce, again VERY good for the economy!

Higher Rates – 10 Year Yield Rises

10 Year 2-6-15

While all of this is good news for the economy, these are headwinds for the capital markets, in the SHORT term (1-2 years)  …. longer term this is very good news, as it helps support the frothy valuations and gives us more confidence that the Fed will be able to raise rates this year … FINALLY!

Janet Yellen and the other Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members … Raise those rates !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialnc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

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Tall Walls … Great Employment Report … See You Tomorrow

Posted on December 5, 2014 by | Leave a comment

The walls definitely were tall  on Monday and Tuesday as I shook off the Flu … much better now. For the record, no retirement for me !! Two days at home confirmed that… way too much fun at the office!

As an outlet to those walls, great posts…(at least in my mind), kept appearing and made their way here.  As a general rule, three posts a week are fine…but oh well…how about five? Sorry for those with fatigued eyes or full mailboxes ..

Boom … Higher Employment Numbers

Yesterday evenings (late) post mentioned a possible wish for higher wage growth.  Guess the wish should have come sooner as we did get a nice increase in wage growth and a 300k+ headline new jobs number. Wow!Job Market

Almost every part of the employment report was VERY positive. This is good news as it points to further positive economic growth. Yawning capital markets are also good … gives us time to grow into our stretched valuations  …

It’s a Party … Party Party

Look forward to seeing those that are attending the Holiday Party tomorrow … Thanks in advance,  we know there is competition for the slot this time of the year.

Isaac, our newest member will be there as well Donald ‘The Brain” and his wife and family … thanks for making it in!

Happy Friday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

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A Pivotal Economic Report Tomorrow, Friday August 6, 2010

Posted on August 5, 2010 by | Comments Off on A Pivotal Economic Report Tomorrow, Friday August 6, 2010

The Employment Report, due out tomorrow may be one of the most important recent economic reports we have received in some time, for some not so obvious reasons.    

Here is the set up:   

  1. We are at the tail end of earnings, which have been for the most part ok to good (Consumer spending is an ongoing concern.)
  2. The Capital Markets have moved almost 10% from their July lows, in anticipation of good news; A good report would validate the market’s anticipation.
  3. It’s summer so a lot of folks are out of town, making for light trading and dramatic movement on little or no news.
  4. We are at “lines in the sand” levels for the markets i.e. The capital markets are at their most recent highs, but unable to move past (Think breaking the 4 minute mile.)
  5. Seasonally, August is not a great month, again mostly due to lack of headcount.

Confused yet?  Don’t be, just expect a choppy ride!  

Bumpy Road

  

Market expectations of a loss of 87k jobs is a reasonable hurdle and comes on the heels of a loss of 125k individuals last month.   

What makes this report important is all eyes are looking for an improvement and capital market participants are wagering that the report is going to be better than expected.    

Our best guess, no guarantees of course, anything short of a very good number tomorrow, and the Capital Markets will head into their cave for the remainder of the summer doldrums, through Labor Day, Sept 6, 2010.  

The good news, we only have to wait a few hours to see !    

Have a Great Day, from a wildly hot, hot, hot,  Dallas Texas !    

JK    

 

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