On Friday, the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their regularly monthly employment report – this is the first report in some time where ….
“Good News is Bad News?”
Here is why some believe this!
Good Economic News = Bad News?
Last Friday, November 2, 2018 the BLS released their regular monthly employment report that showed terrific economic numbers.
A fantastic, total 3.7% unemployment rate.
In addition to the above Unemployment level, average hourly earnings were also released and they were up 3.1% year over year — breathing a much needed pay increase to many ….
The bad news for many is that they believe these good numbers will give the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) ammunition for continued rate increases.
Currently FOMC members are on record saying they will raise rates in December and three more times next year (2019).
The worry is an eventual inverted yield curve – which we have mentioned many times is a very good precursor to a recession!
By looking at this chart, we are far from an inverted yield curve at this time- leading us to believe this “Good News = Bad News” may be very unwarranted…
Now you know the rest of the story !
Have a Great “Good News is GOOD News” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
What Happens When You Get A Decidedly Positive Economic Reading, While Expecting Negative?
Last Friday, June 5, 2020 the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its regularly schedule monthly report of hiring and firing report nicked name “The Employment Situation”
Closely followed as a broad measure of the health of the economy and the consumer, experts (so called) from all ports of finance (Economist, bankers, investment bankers, brokers) tally their estimates of what the monthly reading will be.
In all fairness, due to bread crumbs from other reports, usually the forecasts are very close and often garner a quick glance and a carry on to other items attention span.
Fridays expectations were for a loss of just over 7 million folks.
Oops – What Happens When You Miss Big?
With an expectation of ( -7 million) more job losses and announcement of +2.5 million gains, caught Market Participants WAY off guard…
Interest Rates took note as well… which is very logical, as rates go up as economic conditions expand…
Likely ahead of ourselves a bit, but heck it is a start….
Bumps most certainly still ahead… but still a start…
Have a Great “Why We Don’t Forecast Much” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
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Posted in Economy, General Financial Planning, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged BLS, Bureau Of Labor Statistics, Employment, Unemployment Report