Tag Archives: Expansion Update

Inverted Yield Curve Update … Current Expansion Speed Reminder … An Opportunity Created ? …

Maybe an over crow of the Inverted Yield curve … but take a look at it’s predictive nature for a recession – darkened areas are recessions:

9-3-19 three month less 10 year fred graph

In case (very likely) you are looking at this post on your cell … at the far right of the above chart, the line dips below zero – this means that that 90 day FOMC/rate is higher than the 10 year treasury – YEP that’s inverted and as far as we can see …  a predictor of a recession –

DON’T JUMP YET!

Recessions come in all forms, and by definition is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP (Gross Domestic Production) –

Remember how slow our recovery has been? This is that last 70 years of expansions, the weakly line on the lower right is our current – yea, its longer, but slower and weaker than all of the others, maybe even the “Runt” recovery compared to all the others …. from our Friends and JPMorgan as of 9-1-19!

9-1-19 last 70 Years of Expansion - JPMorgan

Can a car that is going slow, really crash hard? Hmmmm…

All of this has also created an opportunity — tease, tease, tease….

Have a Great Friday, talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
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