Tag Archives: Factset

FactSet Earnings Estimates and Ratio Review – Part II in Market Valuation Series

Posted on February 10, 2021 by | Leave a comment

John Butters our friend at FactSet, (a treasure of information resource) released a 37 page report in timely fashion for our Valuation Series. We are especially fond of Butters who takes the time to personally email us the “ok” to reproduce portions of his report…thanks again John!

Recall our first in Valuation Series here, where we reviewed the Buffett back of the Napkin Valuation of GDP to S&P 500 Market Capitalization…. While maybe not flashing Bright Red, it was in never seen before high valuation territory…

FactSet Valuation Analysis

Here we are again showing a likely never before seen high chart value … Flashing bright Yellow or maybe Light Red. Way up high as printed is overvalued…

Unlike the prior charts, this one is GREAT going up…

This Chart is the Q1 2021 Earnings Expectations. In September of 2020 expectations were for a negative yes -13% year over year earnings… today barely positive, but positive!

Now here is the REAL GOOD news, Q 1 2020 was mostly unscathed by the lockdowns… meaning this is a very aggressive comparable to a more normal year, also meaning the following quarters will likely print huge positive growth numbers due to easier comparisons…

With a little luck, maybe we can grow into our larger than fitting/high valuation clothes over the year!

Lemonade out of Lemons … MAYBE, but bad things do not always have to happen…

Lots of risk, lot’s of things that could go bad, but again they do not HAVE to!

No time to swing for the fences — We NEVER do!

Have a Great “FactSet High Valuations but a Safe Way Out” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

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Posted in Earnings, Earnings Season, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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Earnings Estimates Coming Back … Slowly

Posted on September 28, 2020 by | Leave a comment

Earnings are the ultimate driver of stock prices …

Managers work VERY hard to estimate what they will earn and carefully deliver that information to Wall Street – Carefully because a disappointment leads to loss of trust, embarrassment, and likely a slammed stock price – Think of it as blowing your budget in a public forum …

Estimates Return – SLOWLY

A short personal story – long time followers know copyright is very important, so when using others material, we always ask for permission if it is not clear we can reproduce the material – John Butters the continuous author of this report personally took the time to email me back, thank me for the request to use his material and said of course – making us even happier and more frequent users of his material…. ok, slight digression …

For the second quarter, 53 S&P 500 companies issued quarterly EPS guidance, which was the lowest number of S&P 500 companies issuing EPS guidance for a quarter since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2006.

From our dear Friend John Butters at FactSet:

Managers being conservative and protecting their names, pulled estimates … actually not surprising due to the circumstances….

Slowly they are getting confident enough to put estimates out there…. good progress as the look through continues!

Have a Great “Earnings are coming back” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

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Posted in Earnings, Earnings Season, Market Comments

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More Positive Data Points …. Factset Earnings … JOLTS Job Openings … PPI Producer Prices …

Posted on August 12, 2020 by | Leave a comment

As promised, last week, we have some more good data points….

Again, we feel Market Participants maybe a bit overzealous here … expect bumps …

BUT … the earnings and economic front are showing good data points…

S&P 1 Month Earnings Estimates From Our Friends at Factset

Take note of the usual guide down historically in this chart, with this months most recent, bucking the trend… Nice

8-3-20 Fact Set Earnings estimates

JOLTS – Job Openings and Labor Turn Over – aka Jobs Available

The Jolts report is a good measure of the possible jobs available in the US Economy (Watched closely by the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee – The FED)

What is important about this report, is the expectation was for about 4.9 million jobs and the actual came FAR ahead at 5.9 million … Nice X 2

8-11-20 Jolts 4.8 exp 5.9 actual

PPI – Producer Price Index – Price of Production Items

Lastly and briefly, so as not to have you think you have fallen into an Economics class….haha

The PPI is a broad measure of domestic producer sales prices… when it’s going up, there is demand and more importantly when down, slack…

There are various ways to measure this Economic report (Core, Month over month, year over year, %)  … all measurements beat their estimates handily …. Nice X 3!

8-11-20 Core PPI

There you have it… some nice market and economic numbers for your summer hump day!

Have a Great “Economics Beating Expectations” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

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Posted in Economy, FOMC, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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Earnings Matter, ultimately the most, let’s take a peek at how they are doing

Posted on May 15, 2019 by | Leave a comment

With earnings being the ultimate driver of Capital Markets it’s always good to stick our heads down into the weeds occasionally to see how corporate managers are navigating the waters.

Our favorite go-to source for this information is from our friends at Factset, a research arm that does terrific tracking …

Here are a few charts with our notes:

This following is an estimate of Earnings for the remainder of 2019 and for the year 2020 – notice expectations are positive year over year 2018 to 2019 but not much growth is expected from the analyst community – Tariff agreement would likely change this expectation quickly…

img_1243-e1557890593225.png

Next up, how the change in estimates has occurred in real time – take note of the drop near the end of the year 2018 – while it looks like a larger than normal drop, and we prefer it increasing, it is only about a 5% total expected drop but again still a year over year increase as seen from the prior chart.

img_1242-e1557890631119.png

Lastly, we had to throw one of our favorite charts in from our friends at JPMorgan – the lagging blue line, that actually looks out of place, is the current market expansion rate – note how slow this expansion (2007-current) has been. We find this very interesting as even the 2001 expansion was at a much faster pace than our current. Could we be entering an extended period of slower, but more stable growth? This would also speak to lessened concerns of inflation and lowered expectations moving forward…

img_1244.png

Overall, lets give corporate managers an A to almost A+, especially those dealing with overseas trading partners of any kind.

Have a Great “Update Earnings” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

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Posted in Earnings, Economy, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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Earnings Review … aka 90 day Treadmill … Revenue the missing link, found?

Posted on August 7, 2017 by | Leave a comment

As mentioned Friday, earnings are the key drivers to asset growth and appreciation.  While we do not want to get into the weeds too much on this, continued growth bodes well for continued market appreciation… and maybe growth into the Frothy valuations.. From our fantastic friends at Factset.

Earnings Growth for the Immediate Quarter Looks Great

While a very short term time frame, (3-5 years is our normal time frame) this 90 day treadmill aka earning season chart shows the move upward in expected earnings growth rate. Continued movement at this rate would certainly help us grow into the current valuations.

 

8-4-17 Factset Earnings Growth Q217

Nice move!

EPS- Earnings Per Share

Ok, sure the EPS Earnings Per Share- solid line is moving down as time has passed for this quarter, BUT, the scale is very narrow and the amount of lowered expected EPS growth is only slightly less…

8-4-17 Factset Change in Q317 eps

Before looking too much into this, the lower line is a tiny move due to the frame size!

Revenue/Sales Growth FINALLY?

Be it the Great Recession lingering effects, demographics, economics, world growth or technological advances, Sales or Revenue has been missing during this economic recovery. In reviewing this chart, Energy, bouncing back from a much lower price just a year ago is making up much of the sales increase, however other sectors are chiming in too. Could this FINALLY be the sales increases we have all been waiting for? Compliments to all company managers for cutting expenses in order to maintain profitability, however there are only so many cuts that can be made. If sales increases continue, this would provide much needed breathing room for managers.

8-4-17 Factset Rev Growth 2017

Sales growth has been absent this recovery, making for HUGE challenges for corporate managers

 

Time will tell! So far its looking good!

Have a Great “Growth in Earnings” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted in Earnings, Earnings Season, Forecast, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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May 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning Tax Review and Earnings Update- By John Kvale

Posted on June 2, 2017 by | Leave a comment

The School years are finally finishing up…

Summer is beginning across the country…

While moving slower, business is still going on…. let’s review!

But First our 22cnd Annual Holiday Party Announcement!

November 18, 2017 at The Dallas Texas Arboretum from 1-3 PM – Food and Fun – Enjoy the park until 5 pm!

12Nights1

 

Here is the review!

May 2017 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

Credit Reportcredit-40673__340

With today’s technology, it’s no surprise more data is being used by everyone from our Mortgage companies to our Insurance carriers to set rates charged to us.

Given the comprehensive use of our data it has become even more important to guard our credit reports.

In our post here, we discuss the importance of watching our credit and how to check your credit report as well as getting a copy of your report, along with ways to dispute difficiences as well.

Sharing your financial life without giving up control

In this post, one of the most popular of the month, we discussed the ability to give access to your financial life, but not control, to someone.

Our job is of course to always know where everything is located and help carry the spirit of your wishes, but the sharing option of our New Total Vault may be an easier introduction to the subject matter, should you desire to bring it up on your own.

You may even want to have a subtle suggestion for the access to a special person in your life …. we have you covered with our New Total Vault.

Capital Market Comments

Employment Update

With over two thirds of our GDP (Gross Domestic Production) aka broad measure of our economic growth, being consumer related consumption, an employed and happy consumer may likely lead to better growth prospects for the US Economy. Here is the full review!

The consumer is certainly employed, as shown by this chart of the falling unemployment rate!

img_0792

Hello Swimming Pool, talk to you at the end of June !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com,

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Posted in Economy, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Monthly Review, Video

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Earnings, the key to Capital Market Growth … Let’s get an update?

Posted on May 22, 2017 by | Leave a comment

The ultimate driver of Capital Markets are Earnings. Yes, we can argue about interest rates, currencies, world political and economic cycles, but all of these events are only important in how they change earnings or the growth there of “Earnings”.

Let’s take a look at early statistics from 2017!

Earnings Via our Friends at Factset

This from Factset, one of our favorite data aggregators in their regular weekly report.

  • Earnings Growth: For Q1 2017, the blended earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 13.6%. If 13.6% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest (year-over-year) earnings growth for the index since Q3 2011 (16.7%).

Looking closely at the following chart, which is TRAILING earnings, forward looking capital market expectations can be seen. The trailing earnings are actually falling over the last few years, but the forward expectations as noted from the first bullet above are expected to climb more rapidly than the past six years.

5-12-17 Factset EPS change and Price

 

So just where are these revenues that are creating accelerating growth coming from?

5-12-17 Factset Geographic Rev chart

P/E or the Price to Earnings is the most blunt way to measure the valuation of capital markets. A high P/E might mean markets are overvalued and need to grow into their valuations, or a reversion to the mean reset to a lower level may be in the cards.

5-12-17 Factset 12 PE ratio V long term

From Factset’s estimates above, the current market P/E is about 22 with a normal of 16-17, undoubtedly higher than normal but certainly no guarantee of an imminent reversion down to lower levels.

If the growth estimates mentioned in the very first bullet come through in 2017, much of this froth may be taken out of the capital markets.

Either way, we have your back via our good friend diversification!

There you have it, a nice ‘Earnings Update” … We will be watching closely!

Have a great “Earnings Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

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Posted in Earnings, Earnings Season, Economy, Interest Rates, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments, Political, World Political

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April 2017 Podcast Video, Financial Planning Tax Review and Earnings Update- By John Kvale

Posted on May 1, 2017 by | Leave a comment

Whew, that was easy…. tax season is finally mostly over ….

We wanted to look back one last time on our personal taxes before we sunset those tax strategies for the high point of the season….

As a reminder,  we started with an Audio Podcast format for those that are unable to SEE the video or just prefer to listen to the audio… this makes the review slightly longer, but more descriptive.

Enjoy!

April 2017 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip(s)-

AMT Tax Reminder

We ran across a lot of AMT or Alternative Minimum Taxes this season

Here are the key thoughts from our detailed post on AMT earlier this month-

  • Incomes between $170k and $313k joint and singles over $100k – you are in the cross hairs of AMT
  • Deferring income may be useful
  • Accelerate income

There is not a lot of planning changes with AMT, but in this case knowledge may be power!

Possible MAJOR tax reform

Late in the month an overview of major tax reform was released.

Here is a link from the White House

Here is a link from Barron’s that does a pretty good analysis

Here is our article on the possibilities earlier this month

What to do if you overfund your 401k/retirement plan

In our overfunding 401k post here, we discuss how your 401k/retirement plan can get overfunded….. here are the main points

  • Refund the extra amount ASAP
  • Apply the extra to the new year
  • If its a super small amount, its not the end of the world

Capital Market Comments

First Double Digit Earnings growth since 2011 expected

From our friends at Factset, who do a terrific job of outlining historic and future earnings.

Earnings are the ultimate driver of capital markets!

4-27-17 SP earnings estimates - Factset

What is nice about these estimates are that historically companies have been beating the street estimates … if this continues, the actual earnings may be even better double digit growth…. time will tell and we will be watching!

Hello May!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com,

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Posted in Economy, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Monthly Review, Tax Related, Video

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Earnings Update – Good Update!

Posted on August 8, 2016 by | Leave a comment

Earnings are the ultimate driver of higher equity/stock prices. All other items being equal (which they rarely are, but go with me here) better earnings lead to higher stock prices.

Sometimes a low bar that can be stepped over leads to better prices.

As you can see by this busy chart… earnings estimates tend to fall as the year passes.

EPS Dardanelles.png

If we happen to not have a decline in earnings as the year goes on…a surprise  based on everyone getting too negative, maybe prices will trend higher? or at least current higher prices are justified? Not forecasting, only saying!

Check this chart out from FactSet:

8-1-16 FactSet rev chart

Revenue growth has been hard to come by…actually almost impossible, but as this chart notes  something is going on… Could a turn be in the mix?

Another reason never to get too negative or two positive…somewhere in the middle!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted in Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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Oil and Energy? Factset Estimates

Posted on May 4, 2016 by | Leave a comment

No doubt energy has been left for dead.

Why hold energy investments as the world crashed around them?

There will be more pain…BUT

Three charts from Factset, an accumulator of estimates and reports:

Energy certainly has the lead in earnings surprises …

4-29-16 Sector level surpises

Wow…..

Of course it is not all peaches and cream … THIS year’s estimates:

4-29-16 2016 Growth Estimates

Next Year’s Estimates …

4-29-16 2017 Growth Estimates

Wow….did we say wow !

What if they are only 50% correct ? Of course coded forecast !

Never go “All in or All out!”

Have a great day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

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Posted in Forecast, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments

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