Tag Archives: FOMC

M2 Turns Negative for the First Time and that’s a Long Time!

There are tons of measuring sticks out there…. almost all of which we look at and follow, at least at one time or another…..

What grabs our attention is when the measuring sticks do unique things….or have never happened before!

M2 – aka Money Supply

According to Investopedia M2 is best described as the following:

M2 is the U.S. Federal Reserve’s estimate of the total money supply including all of the cash people have on hand plus all of the money deposited in checking accounts, savings accounts, and other short-term saving vehicles such as certificates of deposit (CDs). Retirement account balances and time deposits above $100,000 are omitted from M2.

Check out the latest reading of M2

While close in 1994, it stayed positive, for the year 2022… M2 was a negative for the year for the first time ever!

Note also as compared to 1994, the rapid draw down in 2022…

Why are we watching this?

This draw down of money in the system may put pressure on certain risky players i.e. Companies that use Junk or High Yield Debt!

Just a heads up to let you know what we are watching!

Have a Great “M2 Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

December 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – Secure Act 2.0 – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our December 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

December 2022 Video


YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Secure Act 2.0 – Passed on 12-27-22 Quietly …. Shhhhh we are working through the details

On December 27, 2022 a HUGE bill … over 4000 pages, was passed…. while not sweeping in our neck of the woods, there is one main adjustment….

RMD – Required Minimum Distributions are pushed out again to age 73! Not Kidding!

Capital Market Comments

Rate Increase – Fed Raised rates for the Holidays

In December the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell raised rates, but only by .50% … but it was a raise…

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of January – Happy 2023!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Happy Holidays … Gentleman’s Agreement Held? Will see … Mostly Out of Office Over the Holidays … Link to TV Post …

Happy Holidays ….. Over the remaining days of the year, there is a “Gentlemen’s Agreement” to basically do no harm…. this agreement was violated in 2018 by Guess who? Non other than an aggressively increasing rates FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)

Not sure if you caught the news on Wednesday but the afore mentioned FOMC raised rates by .50% this week…

Not sure how this plays out, but Jerome Powell (FOMC chair) may not be bringing presents….

Holidays Out of the Office

While we will have electronics… (we always have electronics) …. we are planning on being out of the office most of the Holidays …

For the safety of the streets, with all of our gangs getting out mid day, we will also be out mid day…

Oh… here is the link to Wednesdays post here on our blog….forgot Youtube embeds do not make it through email servers these days….

Happy Holidays and Seasons Greetings!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Heads Up for a Busy “Headlines” Week – CPI Consumer Price Index aka Inflation Measurement – FOMC Federal Open Market Committee Rate Increase Announcement …

While the Holiday Season is getting closer, Economic data must go on….

On Tuesday we get the CPI (Consumer Price Index) bluntest of instruments for Inflation report from the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) ….

All about expectations versus actual, “for the moment” …. Last months was 7.7% year over year and the expectation this time is for 7.3% …

Above the 7.3% will likely lead to disappointment and below or well below a short term applause …

On Wednesday Jerome Powell and his buddies at the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) will in all likelihood raise rate the much expected .50% to the 4.25% – 4.50% level….

While it is not super obvious from the chart above, the longer term 10 year treasury (blue) is much lower and trending lower than the shorter term 2 year treasury …. this is an inverted yield curve….

With Powell pushing short term rates higher with a .50% increase, the interesting observation will be what the 10 year does, as the 2 year is captive to Powell’s movements, being so near in time frame!

Sorry for the heavy start to the week… we promise an easier rest of the week… but wanted to let you behind the curtains of our watch this week….

Have a Great “Busy Economics” start to the week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

November 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – RMD’s and Rate Review – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our November 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

November 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

RMD’s (Required Minimum Distributions) not taken can be taxed at 50%

In this reminder post (somewhat meant to frighten) we notify everyone, PLEASE do not delay in your RMD’s as the IRS is readily funded with new staff and the penalty is 50% of the amount not taken if they so desire….

Also with a continued bottle neck lack of workers …. many financial firms are on a “Best Effort” processing as of December 1! Gone are the last minute days of RMD’s act now!

Capital Market Comments

Rate Increase Discussions from “First Time in Long Time Conference”

Happily attending the first conference in over four years, the topic of interest rates came up, especially since a .75% rate increase occurred DURING the conference….

In this post, a chance meeting with Liz Ann Saunders … long time macro market strategist… we share our common thoughts on the fact the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Powell are steadfast in their goals to slow the economy i.e. Slow consumption …. no matter what is takes…

Fort the record while short term rates are holding fast at a higher level, longer term rates have slowed their increases…. More on this as it plays out….

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of December – Wow That Came Fast!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

The Fed Raised Rates, Analysis on Short and Long Term Rates, Interesting Observations From Conference Conversations

Last week during the afore mentioned conference, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) continued their increases in the the short end of the yield curve aka Fed Funds Rate…

FOMC – Federal Reserve Raises by .75%

Last week the FOMC continued their increases in the very short term Fed Funds Rate…

Note the 1 Year Treasury compared to the 10 Year – Inverted as the longer term fixed income market could be looking forward to the eventual slow down.

In a chance conversation at the conference, Liz Ann Sonders – (Chief Investment Strategist of Charles Schwab) and I had a conversation about the FOMC meeting and an interesting observation.

The press release had some soft language that led many to believe they may be on the path to slowing increases…. Capital Markets took off…. of course Powell could see this and during his live press conference made sure to re-iterate the increases were still on the table…

Sonders and I both agreed, had the capital markets not gotten ahead of themselves… Powell would likely have said nothing… The Fed wants the slow down …

Have A Great “Fed Raised and Analysis” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Updates from the Conference – Today’s FOMC Announcement Analysis – Cyber Security …

As mentioned last week, the first in-person large conference in some time is going on this week…. It is very nice to see everyone “In Person” …. we had forgotten just how full the schedules are during these events … full day ahead …

Briefly our two most important topics so far!

FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee Thoughts for Today’s Announcment

Just after lunch hour today the FOMC lead by Jerome Powell are set to raise rates (Fed Funds Rates – think overnight checkbook rate) by .75% (75 basis points) ….

The experts here say focus on the future (for the record we have been crowing on looking forward throughout this slowdown see here and here – digressing) as the Wall Street chatter is a step down possibility at the next meeting to a .50% — a firming of the higher .75% increase as the next meeting OR an even softer talk of maybe no .50% would be market moving… again according to our experts…

Cybersecurity – No Email of Social Security or the Like Documents

Condensing this event into one important topic – we all need to make sure we do not send documents with Social Security numbers or the like through email…. the hackers are just too good…

This is more of a reminder for all… but as we enter tax season next year, a good reminder!

Alright, that is it for now, a quick jog and workout… then to breakfast and back in doors for a full scheduld of events today!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

October 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – DMA Reminder – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our October 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Dallas Museum of Art

2 PM Saturday Afternoon November 19th before Thanksgiving Weekend

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

October 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

New Retirement Contribution Maximums

  • 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans, increased to $22,500 (2023), up from $20,500 (2022)
  • Catch up for those over 50 is increased to $7,500 (2023), up from $6,500 (2022)
  • Total max 401(k), 403(b), most 457 plans including catch up is $30,000 (2023) up from $27,000 (2022)
  • limit on annual contributions to an IRA increased to $6,500 (2023), up from $6,000 (2022)
  • IRA catch up for those age 50 and greater remains $1000
  • Annual Gift Exclusion amount increased to $17,000 (2023) from $16,000 (2022)

Highlighted in this post

Capital Market Comments

Fastest Interest Rate Increase EVER – That’s a long time1

Our friends at Visual Capitalist are at it again with a superb chart we have been watching for, here in this post we highlight the following chart of just how fast this interest rate increase has been – fastest ever that is

Recall this is a TEMPORAY headwind to Fixed income instruments, that show up in greater magnitude due to the FOMC’s aggressiveness…

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of October!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Fastest Interest Rate Increases Ever, and that’s a long time … Friends at Visual Capitalist

From our friends at Visual Capitalist

This is pressure for now, but pleasure as our income from our fixed pays out more!

When the Fixed Income market breathes, rates typically go down in a slowdown…. even with the Fed raising short term rates… actually especially when they raise short term rates…

Have a Good “Temporary Pressure Eventual Pleasure” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

September 2022 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review , Fastest Rate Increase, Ben Hunt, DMA Reminder – By John Kvale CFA, CFP

Hello and Welcome to our September 2022 … Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Break In: Holiday Venue Announced –

Dallas Museum of Art

Details to Come – Saturday Afternoon November 19th before Thanksgiving Weekend

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets thoughts and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

September 2022 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Ben Hunt on Narratives – Reminder Late Cycle Headlines are Usually the Worst

In case you missed our pre-Newsletter Post here or you missed the actual Newsletter post here, we really wanted to re-iterate our Neat Ben Hunt coverage of Narratives, especially with them being so dramatic as we near the end of the slowing cycle… hoping not to beat a dead horse…

Just a reminder once again, take heed if you find yourself being dramatically influenced suddenly… you may have hit a Narrative, accidental or purposefully….

Another super reminder

Why am I reading this, and why am I reading this now?

Capital Market Comments

Federal Reserve Marches on with Higher Rates – All about the Speed!

With a thicker line on the chart, finally, hopefully you can spy the massive speed at which this round of rate increases have occurred….

With the cover of a late entering data in the form of Owners Equivalent Rent in the CPI (Consumer Price Index) the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) has ripped rates higher …

Recall this is a TEMPORAY headwind to Fixed income instruments, that show up in greater magnitude due to the FOMC’s aggressiveness…

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of October!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents