Tag Archives: FOMC

November 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our November 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

November – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Email is the New Physical Address – Harder to Change

With email replacing our home address in importance, its not a surprise and only a mild inconvenience (due to the safety) to have to get a signed form in order to change our address.icons-157872__480 email address

In our descriptive post on the subject, we also predict eventually we will all likely be forced to transact most of our business in a paperless way….  Uncomfortable for many, but much better for our environment in the long term!

Why an Inheritance is Usually NOT Taxable

After running into this question numerous times we did a post here, and will also have an expanded article coming in our Q1 2020 Newsletter.inheritance

For the most part, inheritances are not taxable and in our post we go over the reasons why, and discuss techniques for being most tax efficient.

Just after this post a good follow on subject directly related to this post occurred that will go well in our “Why” Series Collection – Watch for another Inheritance Related Post and likely Newsletter Article !

 

Capital Market Comments –

When FED lowers, Recession Averted? Hmmmm

Near the end of the Quarter, as mentioned in our Fire Hydrant CEO post here, we ran into a most interesting chart (below)….

A first ever to see, the speaker points out that recessions are averted when the FED (Federal Open Market Committee – Jerome Powell the leader currently) lowers rates during an inverted yield curve… hmmmm

Not to worry, doing more research on this … oddly the speaker did not think much of Powell’s economic prowess, but spoke firmly that due to his LACK of horsepower on the Economy he may have a better chance of soft landing this slowdown…

 

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Always learning!!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of December!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Good News From Interest Rates – Friday

While the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell have been lowering short term rates, see notes by us here, here and here….

Until just recently, longer term rates were following short term rates down…

Good News From Interest Rates

While the FOMC does control short term rates, they have much less control of longer term rates and actually by lowering short term rates they were hoping for this….

Higher long term rates are our friend … Possible reasons:

  • Market participants way of being more positive
  • Tariff talks proceeding
  • Less fear
  • Expectation of future growth
11-7-19 Ten Year Treasury Update

10 Year Treasury Rate

If we showed a longer term chart you would see it still has a ways to go as we are only nearing 2% – half full guys… have to start somewhere…  For now, good news!

Newsletter Under WayQ 4 2019 Newsletter Banner small

We have some really neat items under way for the Q 1 2020 (yikes- did we just say that) Newsletter… we have found some great Government Public sources of information that we think you will really like – now on to pulling it all together for brevity and clarity — never thought those research paper skills would be so used – Sorry to all the English teachers that did not get full effort..yes you told me so! haha

Today is a chilly Friday and Thanksgiving is just around the corner…

Have a Great Friday and Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA. CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

October 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our October 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

BREAK IN

D Magazines Best Wealth Managers

2019 Final Approved Dmagazine Best Wealth Manager

D Magazine Best Financial Planner – 13th Consecutive – Wow

Best_Financial_Planner 2019

Sirius Satellite Radio Co-Host

JK Sirius

 

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

October – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Why we want ANY seeming Important Document

In this post, due to recent fantastic $$ savings just by having access to very old documents… some almost two decades, we were reminded of how important it is for us to safely keep ANY seeming important document…. forever

Only thing is, if we do not have a soft copy… we cannot save it!

Capital Market Comments –

FED Lowers Once Again, another .25% – Likely Pause Expected

Jerome Powell Chief of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) lowered rates by .25% to the 1.50% to 1.75% range, which will directly effect our overnight money, such as checking accounts and money markets… We think in part, to answer expectations… the good news is they have set future pause expectations… which we like!

Longer term rates have followed a bit, for now.

11-2-19 Fed Funds Rates

 

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of November!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

FED lowers again …. but only (.25%) – Longer Term View – Friday

Last Wednesday the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell and attended by Dallas’ own Robert Kaplan, lowered rates by .25% to 1.75 to 2.00% Range…

FOMC Lowers rates once again

With a ton of information coming at you (Newsletter is full of interest rate talk) we will keep this short…

The FOMC lowered rates a second time, making for an unofficial change in this cycle from raising to lowering of rates….

FOMC Rate now

While the chart above may seem extreme … let’s look longer term….

FOMC MAX RAte

It’s ok… a .25% move is not that much, but we really would like room to lower when the inevitable recession comes…. who knows, if the tariff talks get fixed, raising of rates may be in the cards…. wouldn’t that be an interesting turn of events… hand tight, we have your back!

Today is a wet Friday, enjoy your weekend and grab that umbrella.

Have a Great “Interesting Rate Cycle” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Inverted Yield Curve Update … Current Expansion Speed Reminder … An Opportunity Created ? …

Maybe an over crow of the Inverted Yield curve … but take a look at it’s predictive nature for a recession – darkened areas are recessions:

9-3-19 three month less 10 year fred graph

In case (very likely) you are looking at this post on your cell … at the far right of the above chart, the line dips below zero – this means that that 90 day FOMC/rate is higher than the 10 year treasury – YEP that’s inverted and as far as we can see …  a predictor of a recession –

DON’T JUMP YET!

Recessions come in all forms, and by definition is two consecutive quarters of negative GDP (Gross Domestic Production) –

Remember how slow our recovery has been? This is that last 70 years of expansions, the weakly line on the lower right is our current – yea, its longer, but slower and weaker than all of the others, maybe even the “Runt” recovery compared to all the others …. from our Friends and JPMorgan as of 9-1-19!

9-1-19 last 70 Years of Expansion - JPMorgan

Can a car that is going slow, really crash hard? Hmmmm…

All of this has also created an opportunity — tease, tease, tease….

Have a Great Friday, talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Our First Accidental Post in almost 2000, the Perils of Bad Wifi Connections – All Eyes on the FOMC next week – Friday

On Wednesday at 9:23 AM, just over an hour before the regularly scheduled 10:30 am post was to go — a quick review of the 10:30 post led to an update from the Ipad which had saved data on the device and then updated it when the review occurred… and some how sent the following title …

img_4065

If you saw it and wondered… now you know – for the record first time in almost 2000 posts now! Of course some have gone off at 10:30 pm rather than am and earlier than planned – but this was the first totally unplanned post – sorry for the confusion, if it caused any! I like to think of it as authenticity 😀

FOMC in View

Next week the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) let by Jerome Powell and attended by our on local Dallas President, Robert Kaplan – (our newly admired local president) better lower rates!

It’s hard to feel like they must lower rates as the global economy is slowing but not falling off a cliff …. Their (FOMC) public rhetoric has led Market Participants to be almost certain they are going to lower. If they don’t lower rates – disappointment!

Should be interesting!

Have a GREAT Friday and a Super Weekend – talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents