Tag Archives: FOMC

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve – Will they LOWER (yes you read that correctly) Rates? Audio from Local Fed President, Robert Kaplan, on how the decision is made!

Ok…so the Social Security event forced us to pull together new audio equipment – we never knew how quickly we would utilize these new tools for events such as what follows – We hope you enjoy these pertinent comments directly from the horses mouth!

Unthinkable just a few quarters ago…. Market Participants are thinking there may be a FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) LOWERING of rates – yep lowering!

This week the FOMC will announce their decision, based on many factors as you will hear from the attached audio – what makes this weeks meeting special is the slight expectation of a lowering of rates and this meeting includes the FOMC estimates of the economy and an interview with chief Jerome Powell post announcement –

Now – what they are looking at to make the decision!

At our recent CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) sponsored event, we were fortunate enough to have an hour with Robert Kaplan, Dallas Federal Reserve President. We were also fortunate enough to get audio of the event…

What the Fed Watches to make rate decisions20190528_170905120_iOS

According to Robert Kaplan, Audio below, he along with his fellow FOMC chiefs watch the following, just to name a few items:

Cyclical Factors – Short Term Indicators – Less important to Kaplan – I.e. CPI, Earnings, Interest Rates, Employment rates – basically all the items we read on a daily basis or are bombarded with in “Breaking News! Like format – Interestingly and very correctly from our perch, Kaplan is not a big advocate of placing much weight on these factors – see next as he mostly ignores the short term noise – Wisely in our opinion – see audio below

Structural Factors – Longer Term Trends – MORE important to Kaplan and becoming more important to the entire FOMC board due to his repeated review – I.e. Population growth/demographics, Government Debt, Corporate Debt, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION (huge importance), World Growth – Again, totally agree – see audio below

Individual Company Response – Kaplan talks to over 30 large and small company CEO’s monthly along with continued in- person visits with companies to help determine, just what the economy is doing along with longer term Structural disrupting factors – see audio below

Group Input – With multiple chiefs from a dozen districts bringing their collective input to the table, a theme hopefully develops!

Here is the Audio in different formats for different devices – with three different types we hope at least one works on your device!

MP3:

Wave File:

OGG File:

Our Thoughts

Our bet is no lowering of rates, which may be met with disappointment (lower markets)!

Have a Great “FED Decision Week” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Fed Speak Spurs Markets: Accidental Reporting – Great Audio Totally Contrary to Reports … Friday

Mid-week, Jerome Powell current Federal Open Market Chief (FOMC) hinted that rate movement may be under review – this, the exact sentence is what Capital Market Participants applauded:

“…we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

As simple as it may sound, it’s meaning is strong. Simply put, the FOMC is aware of headwinds being caused by the tariff talks and are considering it as a factor in their estimate of the growth of the economy. Here is a link to the actual speech for those nerds like us!

Rewind to just two quarters ago when the FOMC was on record saying they planned on raising rates three more times, spurring the Holiday season Hissy Fit … Things certainly have changed – 

This headline from Wall Street Journal Yesterday 20190606_184120000_iOS

afternoon!

But HOLD ON … this will make you scratch your head–

Robert Kaplan, Dallas Federal Reserve President – One and a half weeks ago during a lunch presentation! Take a moment to listen, it’s 1 minute and 14 seconds!

Different Audio types for differing browsers – same audio

 

20190528_170905120_iOS

Timely recording of the event…had no idea how pertinent it would be so quickly!

Feeling a bit like a reporter…. confused reporter, but reporter!!!

Have a Great Friday and Super Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Inverted Yield Curve Update – Break In: Chance Visit with Robert Kaplan, Dallas Federal Reserve Chair

Break In:

After scheduling this post about 24 hours before now, yesterday an almost all day meeting with the local CFA (Chartered Financial Analysts) organization, a local deep level investment organization that found yours truly as President once upon a time, featured the key note lunch speaker of none other than … Robert Kaplan, the current Dallas Federal Reserve Chairman…

kaplan-lb

There is not a Federal Reserve Member, much less a president that does not have the Economy, interest rates, and notice of the inverted yield curve on his mind… His hour lecture was recorded… using one of the neat handy recorders from our Social Security event…. unfortunately at the time of this writing, the darn recorder would not be friendly with the laptop and share the speech….grrrr

Look for more in our coming Newsletter … and eventually the recorded conversation here … fingers crossed!

Now back to the original post!

It has been a while since we discussed the Yield curve and the inversion there of…

Look for a more detailed article in the coming Newsletter, but for now, the yield curve has inverted again, but this time with greater spread!

As a quick reminder, an inverted yield curve is when longer term rates are lower than shorter, an unusual situation as generally the longer the term the higher the rate so as to adjust/compensate for risk…

Our favorite term and the most useful in our minds is the ten year versus the 90 day yield…

Currently the 90 day treasury is yielding about 2.35% and the 10 year treasury is yielding 2.23% – yep, that’s inverted ….

Chart from St. Louis Federal Reserve

5-28-19 the 90 v 10 year

It is hard to see in this chart, and granted, it is a small inversion compared to recent times, but we are inverted and have been for the second week since mid-March, when we first inverted for five days….

Again, more in the coming Newsletter, but we are watching closely!

Have a Great “Inverted Yield Curve Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

March 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Break in Reminder for our Social Security Event

Saturday April 27th at 10 am and Dallas Athletic Club

 

Hello and Welcome to our March 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

March – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

IRS Dirty Dozenburglar-308858__480

Each year the IRS publishes their top dozen tax scams, here in our post we cover all dirty dozen tax scams to be aware.

Our top three are their first three-

  • Phishing
  • Phone Scams
  • Identity Theft

Which are the ones we see most frequently!

For the record, we have seen way less this year than in years past!

Choose Beneficiaries Carefully Part IIbeneficiary - 42001392872_ddd235968d_m

Here in our Part II beneficiary post, we discuss the two most common types of designations you will likely see on Beneficiary paperwork, Per Stirpes (flows to heirs, irregardless of survivors) and ProRata (funds only to survivors) and once again as a reminder that Beneficiary language will over ride Wills and other types of Estate Planning documents – choose carefully!

Capital Market Comments –

Inverted Yield CurveFOMC Lowers Rates and buys longer to lower

Here we spoke of the three hour inverted yield curve in a Break In abbreviated post. As an update, the yield curve has been inverted most of this week, making is a TRUE inversion.

We will have a detailed review soon, but again the importance of this event is the recession signaling prowess.

All recessions are not equal, and we highly suspect the next one will be a shallow one, but our radars are up.

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Why We don’t like to Move Money on Fridays – Break In – Inverted Yield Curve Update

Break In – On Friday the Yield Curve Inverted for about three hours – we have spoken at length on this subject, but want a little more time to see market participants reactions as well as Fed officials before making a current update.

As a reminder the Inversion of the Yield Curve has a strong recessionary signal some time in the future, frequently years in advance –

Friday’s inversion triggered a series of sell programs that clearly did not do their homework on the possible eventual timing of a recession.

With a Newsletter already in print – coincidentally we had much talk about recessions, and even a definition. The two hour inversion did mess our Newsletter up a bit as until Friday it had not inverted – we will update you more with clarity soon!

Back to our regularly scheduled program/post…

Why we don’t like to Move Money on Fridaysfriday-1270362__480

As a weekend nears, specifically Friday … many’s favorite day of the week, we tend to dislike the movement of funds.

The reason is two fold:

  1. If something goes wrong, the weekend can be/seems long to determine a correction
  2. Skeleton crews frequently man the ship on Friday’s- especially during the summer

Our absolute least favorite movement of funds is sending to all new instructions on a Friday – we rarely do this – and never do before a long/holiday weekend!

There are of course times that money just HAS to move on a Friday, such as the closing of a home (in an abundance of caution, we frequently send funds on Thursday) or a last minute quick fill up of cash.

Regularly scheduled deposits are fine as the calendar determines this and being on such a regimented event, trouble is less likely.

Deposits or draws as we like to call them are a different story. When we are pulling funds from another account, we see the flow of funds from our end and can easily Shepard/see problems.

In a safe over sorry posture, look for us to recommend Thursday or our favorite day, Monday, for the movement of unscheduled funds.

Have a Great “No Friday Money Movement” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

February 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our February 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

February – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Job Change or Retirement Checklist

In our updated post here, we discuss a few handy items to grab and remember when you retire or change jobs.

Here are the bullets-

  • Last Pay Check
  • RSU-Options
  • Employee Stock Purchase
  • Deferred Comp
  • Pension
  • Health Coverage
  • Long Term Health Coverage
  • 401k
  • New 401k
  • Severance
  • Social Security Withholding

Institutional Trustee photo-1528752477378-485b46bedcde

This post has turned into a full article in the coming Newsletter due to the great response and continued questions and ideas that were brought up-

Possible reasons for an IRON CLAD Institutional Trustee

  • No other comfortable option – Many times a friend/family member is preferred
  • Want an iron clad back up
  • Calming possible family feuds
  • Long lasting legacy desired
  • Desired attention to details such as monthly distributions, bill payments etc.

Choose Beneficiaries Carefullybeneficiary - 42001392872_ddd235968d_m

In this post, just earlier in the week, born from an in field experience – multiple questions in the office after – and the subject making its way into the Newsletter as well… just a great additional article to the Trust!

The most important item to remember in choosing a designated beneficiary on and account is it will over-rule your Will – choose carefully and review occasionally for safety of desired outcomes.

The Brain Shines at West Coast Event

 

 

Capital Market Comments –

Good News – Recovery without a Re-test – So far

Nothing to change from the prior month!

What a different a month makes – WOW! We literally have gone from the sky is falling to sunshine!

In our summary post in December, we mentioned that fast moving slumps, such as the one we had, frequently do not last long….

Here, earlier in the month we also mentioned that we fully expected some type of retest of those lows before we gained our footing.

We still do expect some type of re-test, but as of this date we have had the following positives that have added to the markets better mood:

  1. Federal Reserve (FOMC) have turned very cautious about raising rates further (We are happily surprised at their yielding, and even more surprised at market participants joy)
  2. Tariff talks are making progress – Interestingly, China has seen a slow down in their economy making for slightly more urgent talks – with a little compromise and statesmanship a resolve looks more likely – again a positive for capital markets.
  3. Earnings are still cranking along – For the prior 4-6 quarters, earnings were red hot and hitting on all cylinders, so hot, they were not sustainable. Companies are still reporting good earnings, just not the Red Hot, overheated earnings from prior quarters – this is good news as it avails the FOMC to not have to raise rates to slow the economy –

All in all a Win- Win!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of March!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

January 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our January 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

Newbies – We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

January – 2019 Video

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Get and Earlier than normal start on those Taxestaxes control-1027103_1280

Here in this post, we remind everyone that due to the new tax laws, it will be a good idea to get your tax information to your professional as soon as possible.

If your using tax software, be sure to do the recommended updates as we feel certain there will be necessary updates to the tables along the way.

Corrected 1099’s are the usual, with only a few last year, we will give everyone the green light once we get our first round of corrected tax forms – but again go ahead and get started with your taxes!

Stunning Findings about your old employer 401kabonded dawn-3358468__480

We had long suspected as much, but in this post we review a Cerulli study that interviewed over 800 401k providers, only to find out that less than 30% really want your funds once you leave.

We have experienced less than stellar service over the years with former employees 401k plans – leading to our long suspicion of these findings.

Make Pension Changes/Decisions Carefullythumbs-up-2056022__480

While our favorite commencement benefit for pensions (100% jt survivor) is fairly straight forward, the simplicity ends there.

In this post, we review recent trends in buy outs and what to watch for, as well as the many scenarios we have experienced that are not always in our best interest.

Capital Market Comments –

Good News – Recovery without a Re-test – So far

What a different a month makes – WOW! We literally have gone from the sky is falling to sunshine!

In our summary post in December, we mentioned that fast moving slumps, such as the one we had, frequently do not last long….

Here, earlier in the month we also mentioned that we fully expected some type of retest of those lows before we gained our footing.

We still do expect some type of re-test, but as of this date we have had the following positives that have added to the markets better mood:

  1. Federal Reserve (FOMC) have turned very cautious about raising rates further (We are happily surprised at their yielding, and even more surprised at market participants joy)
  2. Tariff talks are making progress – Interestingly, China has seen a slow down in their economy making for slightly more urgent talks – with a little compromise and statesmanship a resolve looks more likely – again a positive for capital markets.
  3. Earnings are still cranking along – For the prior 4-6 quarters, earnings were red hot and hitting on all cylinders, so hot, they were not sustainable. Companies are still reporting good earnings, just not the Red Hot, overheated earnings from prior quarters – this is good news as it avails the FOMC to not have to raise rates to slow the economy –

All in all a Win- Win!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of February!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents