Tag Archives: Frothy

Vaccine Announcement and Capital Market Reaction Thoughts … Masters Weekend … Friday

After fielding a few curious questions on the market’s reaction to the vaccine news of Monday, we thought we would briefly give you our view of the possibilities.

As we had mentioned a few times here and here Capital Markets were likely a bit over their skis. Smartly and good in our minds after an incredibly positive reaction to the vaccine news Monday market participants realized where they were with relation to earnings and likely cooled their jets.

Said another way … had we been much lower we maybe would have had a much stronger rally but being ahead of ourselves it may have tempered higher market valuations.

One Month SPX R2K

Specific industries such as travel and leisure, left for dead by many, did see significant increases, albeit from extremely low levels.

Masters Weekend

For the first time the Masters a stately golf tournament in Georgia is being played in the fall. Known as one of the most elegant golf courses and well-manicured it will be interesting to watch a Sunday conclusion under much different fall colors

But today is a Friday heading into a mid-November weekend and wonderful day in our neck of the woods getting cooler but nice fall/autumn temperatures!

Enjoy and talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

No more Bubble Talk Please !!

Last week, over the weekend, and even somewhat longer, there has been a recurring theme in the various media outlets. Maybe we are too plugged in, as we try to read everything possible and employ a lot of aggregators to help us decipher the vast amount of information that travels the airwaves these days.

Bubble Versus Frothy or Rich

The “B” word (bubble) is being overused today in our opinion and we wanted to clarify.  Bubble means there is almost no possibility of future gain and a correction is imminent. Frothy means overvalued but not impossible from future gain. Rich is an even lighter term and means slightly over valued.

Our friend the CAPE PE Chart (10 year average earnings)

Cape PE 5-5-14

We would argue that 1987 was more Frothy than Bubble, with 2000 being a true Bubble.

Certainly we can go down 10-20% or even 30% in a Frothy environment, which we believe we are in currently. However we do not think we are in a bubble and have a 50% + correction coming as some are saying.

Ok…I feel much better now ! haha

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale CFA, CFP

PS I will be out of the very vacant office in the afternoon today!

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.steet-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Another Echo of our Newsletter Thoughts … “Beer Goggles, Monetary Camels, The Eye of the Needle….”

As you may know by now we favor much of Richard Fisher’s thoughts.  The current Dallas Federal Reserve Chair, and a new voting member of the FOMC in just a few days, Fisher’s recent speech grabbed our attention. Here and here we visit a few of his topics from prior events, but his latest speech rhymed with our thoughts, and had a funny headline for such a stiff position.

“Beer Goggles, Monetary Camels, The Eye of the Needle…”

In this speech to the National Association of Corporate Directors, Richard Fisher echoes many of our thoughts. Feel free to click on either of the links for the complete speech, but it is rather long, so we will cut to the echoes below for your time-saving:

CEO Dallas Federal Reserve

CEO Dallas Federal Reserve

  • Share  buybacks financed by debt issuance that after tax treatment and inflation incur  minimal, and in some cases negative, cost; ( Ditto in our Earnings update in the newsletter, buybacks increase earnings growth more that headline numbers seem)
  • Stock  market metrics such as price-to-sales ratios and market capitalization as a  percentage of gross domestic product at eye-popping levels (We use PE ratio, but same thought…I cut out 1999 comparison from Fisher so as not to scare/alarm … again taking the high road for now)
  • In  the bond market, investment-grade yield spreads over “risk free” government  bonds becoming abnormally tight (We have warned against high yield, repeatedly…this is a similar thought)
  • I want to make clear that I am  not among those who think we are presently in a “bubble” mode for stocks or  bonds or most other assets (We said the EXACT same thing, not a bubble,  but frothy and not cheap)
  • Were a stock market correction to ensue while I have the  vote, I would not flinch from supporting continued reductions in the size of  our asset purchases as long as the real economy is growing, cyclical  unemployment is declining and demand-driven deflation remains a small tail risk;  I would vote for continued reductions in our asset purchases (This we agree with and have mentioned many times, understanding this could be a tad of gasoline on a negative thinking market)

There you have it, another similar thinking person to our thoughts. We usually stray from the crowd and this time we are not in the crowd, but there are a few notables that share our thoughts.

Have a Great Day !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS This is why we like NOT reading anything from our favorite sources before formulating our year estimates and postulation.

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Newsletter Complete, Vanguard CEO Sings Our Theme Too

The Newsletter is complete and can be found here on our website  in both electronic and pdf form and here on street-cents under the NEW Newsletter Tab.

Vanguards CEO Bill McNabb Echoes Our Comments

In this recent article, the chairman of the well know powerhouse Vanguard, Bill McNabb and his right hand man, Chief Investment Officer, Tim Buckley proclaimed the markets “Frothy” and most likely will be volatile sooner rather than later.

…..urged the 8,600 attendees to proceed carefully.

The poll found that 33% of investors were somewhat likely to increase their equity exposure this year, while 24% were very likely to do so.

“Often, after great returns … people chase them and risk getting in after a run-up. So, don’t overallocate to equities,” Buckley cautioned…..

Valuations, he notes, are historically in the top quartile and “are getting pricey.”

 

In our just published Newsletter, the EXACT terminology was mentioned repeatedly.

This is so close to our thoughts we even included this following chart in the Newsletter for impact and reference.

Buy Sell Go Broke

Mr. McNabb’s stock certainly rose in our minds due to the direct alignment with our views. This is another reason why we hold off on reading heavily before we formulate our opinions and estimates …. Keeps us from being swayed, and provides nice surprises like this!!!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225