Imaging you are walking an economic tight rope (We are calling it a pickle) and had no easy way out….
FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell may be in a Pickle.
Too Hot But Also Too Cold
Here at the Cleveland Federal Reserve , the FOMC’s own research from one of their own showed an estimate of CPI for the most recent of 8.59%…. thing is, it came in above 9% ….
Much too hot for the FOMC’s liking!
Then you have this from ANOTHER of the Fed’s own research ….
Atlanta Federal Reserve GDP Now Cast
At the time of this chart their estimate was -2.1% … today it is -1.6% (jumps around as economic reports are released and fed into the beast/model) – predicting the R – Word!
Ok, so CPI/Inflation is too hot …. let’s slow this economy AND INFLATION down….
BUT Wait – the Economy is already slowing per my own members research!
What to do? The Pickle !
Have a Great “Glad not to be in a Pickle” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
GDP (Gross Domestic Product) Q3 2023 Advanced Release … Headline Versus Second Look of Release…. Defense Spending …
On Thursday, October 26, 2023, the BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis) released the Advanced Estimate aka first try at the Q3 2023 GDP for the US Economy….
As a quick reminder, GDP is one of the broadest measures of US Economic growth …. heck two consecutive negative GDP prints is the basic definition of a recession….back to the print…
The most followed headline number was a 4.9% increase…. at first blush a very positive number and a bit of a head scratcher…. especially given Capital Market’s recent crankiness…..
Government defense spending was (thankfully under current Geo Politics) up huge due to defense spending. Defense spending is not the same as organic Economic growth… it just does not filter through the system the same…still VERY important under current circumstances….
Have a Great “Now you Know the rest of the GDP Report” Day!
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP
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Posted in Economy, General Financial Planning, Investing/Financial Planning, Market Comments
Tagged Advance GDP, BEA, GDP