Tag Archives: GDP

Rates Rise and No One Blinked, Report Cover Letter

The once dreaded and feared interest rate raise seems to have run its course from a fear standpoint. Just a few quarters ago when Ben Bernanke was the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) chairperson, the whisper of a long-awaited rate hike lead to market calamity and many to believe rates would be permanently artificially low.

Near the end of this most recent quarter, current FOMC chair Janet Yellen raised rates to the 1% level, a level not seen in almost a decade and without much capital market trepidation. Longer term the short-term interest rate controlled by the FOMC may not go all the way back to the higher levels once seen historically, however a 2-3% rate would still be stimulating from our perch. It is possible the gradual move higher will extend this current economic expansion.

Speaking of rates, in our Q3 2017 Quarterly Newsletter we do a complete deep dive on interest rates, among many other items, that may have changed Residential Housing Prices movement for the foreseeable future. While so many argue of reasons for Housing volatility, the answers are less vivid than many may think.

Continued optimism from company executives seems to have given them confidence to expand their businesses dropping the unemployment rate to levels many thought not possible via hiring’s of workers. It is possible an employed consumer is a happy consumer who is also a consumer who spends more. With consumer spending making up over two thirds of Gross Domestic Production (GDP) this bodes well for domestic and world growth, as long as it continues.

Given low but rising interest rates (finally) a happy higher price valued Home Owner (again full details in the Newsletter), a happily employed consumer, it is no wonder many assets and most capital assets, especially the US markets are priced to perfection (high compared to historical values). The fantastic news is that our overseas counterpart capital markets are not priced as high and it looks like investors are finally beginning to warm to their markets. Our good friend diversification keeps us exposed to these markets as the possibly reawakening occurs. Look for more on this on our street-cents.com blog.

Summer doldrums?

Maybe, but we always keep our guards up as risk can happen fast, even if the less tenured folks are at the wheel of the capital markets.

Have a Great Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Q 2 2017 Cover Letter

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

October 2016 Video, Financial Planning Tips and Economic Review- By John Kvale

Here is our October 2016, Financial Planning Tip (S) and Monthly Economic Review, along with a Video for your viewing and listening pleasure. Hope you enjoy!

October 2016 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip(s) –

Charitable Giving from An IRA

Yes we CAN finally donate funds from an IRA, as our post reminds, as long as we meet the following requirements:

  1. Already be age 70 ½ on the date of distribution
  2. Submit a distribution form to the IRA custodian, requesting that the check be made payable directly to the charity
  3. Ensure that no tax withholding is being done
  4. Send the check directly to the charity, or to the IRA owner to be forwarded along to the charity

Tricks for Getting Health Insurance

Here are a few great ideas we have learned over the years, as mentioned here for getting Health Coverage:

  •  Stay on your significant others coverage as long as possible
  • Be a member of a select group-
  • Create a Group
  • Six month Cobra Extension
  • Employer Qualified Long Term Benefits
  • Military Members 

Cool College Review Information

Our somewhat humorous, but handy review of Princeton College Ranking Review.  Some good and others, well maybe you would rather not be a part.

Economic Update

Banks are Lending

 

10-12-16-excess-reserves-grannis-fed-reserve

On the far right…. look at that money dripping out of the banks and into the US Economy….

Speaking of Economy, how about this NICE GDP (Gross Domestic Production) release- Far right graph bar rising… THAT’s GOOD!

10-31-16-econoday-gdp-release

 

Have a Great Day!

See you next month !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
JK Street Cents Logo

 

September 2016 Video, Financial Planning Tip and Economic Review- By John Kvale

Here is our September 2016, Monthly Economic and Capital Market Review, along with a Video for your viewing and listening pleasure. Hope you enjoy!

September 2016 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip –

Cyber Security New Tactic Updates

Following our identity article popularity in June, was our email hacking article in August. September brought a reminder post from Donald “The Brain” … the Cyber tactics are changing… Just off a two plane trip week ….. no public Wifi usage…. per the cyber new tactic post…. as the items Donald brought to attention were followed:

  1. Don’t event think of using a “Free Public” Wifi — can be a masked bad guys hot spot conveniently named
  2. Stay away from non-known free apps- careful on what you download-
  3. Internet enabled devices, such as a refrigerator can carry ugly virus’

Economic Update

Happiest Consumer In Nine Years …

Gross Domestic Production (GDP) is one of the widest measures of the economy. Consumers consumption makes up over 2/3rds of the GDP..

  • No presidential election concerns
  • No end of the world concerns
  • No international concerns
  • No domestic concerns

9-27-16-consumer-confidence

Nope.. just one Happy Consumer … the happiest in NINE YEARS !

You Rock happy consumer !

Great news for the Economy! 

Have a Great Day!

See you next month !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
JK Street Cents Logo

 

Wages Rebound… FINALLY… Great news for the Economy

An annual Census Bureau report showed stunning results in consumer wage growth.

Wages Rebound

This chart from the Census Bureau report shows it all, as overall incomes increased a whopping 5.2%

2015-wage-growth-census-report

5.2% That’s Huge!

Two thirds of our economy (Gross Domestic Production) is consumer spending related.

A 5%+ increase on over two thirds of the economic spending and growth is good news.

More Income, More savings

Personal Savings Rate

9-18-16-personal-savings-rate-fredgraph

Happier

Consumer Sentiment on the rebound

9-18-16-michigan-consumer-sentiment

Less Debt

Household debt as a % of GDP

9-18-16-household-debt-to-gdp

Spend More

Recall here our notation of the growth in GDP…

8-26-16 GDP Graph Econoday

Great news for the economy!

Have a better Economy day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

August 2016 Video, Financial Planning Tip and Economic Review- By John Kvale

Here is our August 2016, Monthly Economic and Capital Market Review, along with a Video for your viewing and listening pleasure. Hope you are enjoying!

August 2016 Video

 

Financial Planning Tip –

What to do when your email is hacked

Follow our identity article popularity in June, was our email hacking article in August. As such, it is our planning tip of the month!

Things to do when your email is hacked:

  1. Change your password
  2. Change Other same Password used sites
  3. Recapture your email
  4. Sent box review
  5. Notify your contacts!
  6. Run your Virus Scan

Economic Update

GDP turning up?

Gross Domestic Production is one of the widest measures of the economy. Two negative quarters is the broad definition of a recession.

The beef with this most recent recovery has been the slower GDP growth once the rebound from the 07-09 crisis occurred.

It may be possible, the crisis was so bad, this recovery has taken longer to accelerate.

8-26-16 GDP Graph Econoday

 

 

Have a Great Day!

See you next month !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
JK Street Cents Logo

 

 

April 2016 Video, Economic and Capital Market Monthly Review, By John Kvale

Here is our April 2016, all new…trendy format Monthly Economic and Capital Market Review, along with a Video for your viewing and listening pleasure. Hope you are enjoying!

 April 2016 Video

Financial Planning Tip – The Estate Plan

Estate Docs Summary

Recently we came across the fact that we did not have a post with a summary of Estate Planning Docs. Here is a link to the detailed explanation of each.

The documents needed:

  • Wills
  • Power of Attorney
  • Healthcare Power of Attorney
  • HIPPA
  • Living Will
  • Trusts

A good Estate Plan will likely include most of these documents.

Economic Update

US Dollar Takes a rest

After a scorching run (much stronger) in 2014 and early 2015, the US Dollar has slowed it’s ascent. While travelers abroad have enjoyed a stronger translation of currency, headwinds have occurred in many other ways.

  • International Company profits struggle
  • Commodity weakness
  • Foreign holdings sag in value
  • Foreign Countries holding US debt saw increased amounts
  • China devalue the US peg, slowly

4-29-16 US Dollar 1- year

 

GDP Update

The first Quarter of 2016, Gross Domestic Production (the broadest measure of economic growth/production) was revised to .5%.  The Federal Reserve members want this much higher, think 2% plus.

As can be seen this number is volatile and for some reason has been showing a rather weak first quarter reading the past several years.

Two consecutive negative readings of GDP are the definition of a recession.

 4-28-16 GDP Econoday

Capital Markets Update

Commodities

After dropping to $26 and change in February, oil breached $45 a barrel this latest month. It is highly possible that when we look back on the affects of this extremely low oil price had on our economy, it MAY have been much greater than we ever expected.

Oil related tentacles may have gone much more broad than measured. Another benefactor of the stable/weaker US dollar.

 

4-29-16 Crude Front Futures

 

International Markets

Little brother international markets, more commonly known as Emerging Markets may be getting their feet under them. Tossed out and left for dead, these markets may have the strongest long term growth potential in the world.

4-28-16 EEM

Never go all in or all out !

 

Have a Great Day!

See you again at the end of May !

John A. Kvale

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
JK Street Cents Logo

 

 

Confidence … What Confidence? And less Hope?? …. Wait a Minute

Consumer spending currently makes up over two-thirds of GDP.  A happy confident consumer means good things to US economy in the form of growth/consumption.

Consumer Confidence Wanes

We watch the economic numbers closely, maybe too close at times.

While not sure why, the latest readings from the Conference Board (7/28/15)  were very weak.

7-28-15 Consumer Confidence

And future expectations/hope on the Economy were weak too!

 

7-28-15 Consumer Hope

Wait a minute, gas is cheap, the weather is good for the most part across the country, employment is up, interest rates are low, banks are lending, home prices are rising … Did they get an extra amount of grumpy callers on this survey?  We think it may be possible!

Fortunately there is a very similar reading, called the Michigan Consumer Sentiment, due out Friday …

Just in case it was not a one time incident, we are watching closely !

Have a Great Wednesday !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS If this is from the latest MINOR market pull back — well … let’s hope not!

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

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