Tag Archives: Greece

June 2015 Financial Planning Tip, Capital Market Review (Video)

Welcome to our monthly Economic, Capital Market, and Financial Planning tip of the month.

This months Financial Planning Tip of the month is a reminder of another important account Title issue !

Once again a special thanks to all of  YOU … the best clients and friends as your experiences have again given us the subject matter for our Financial Planning Tip of the Month.

For those new to our writings, we touch on the most pertinent Financial “stuff” along with a video of my mug that has even more specialized details of the latest month as well as this post.

Ok…let’s go!

VIDEO

You Tube Direct Link  or   Vimeo Direct Link

 

TOD/POD Transfer/Payable on death – Another great Financial Planning Tip: 

  • Automatically sends assets to recipient upon death of other
  • Avoids probate
  • Since Avoids probate, may not be controlled by your Will
  • Very Powerful
  • Can lead to inadvertent mistakes in Estate Planning

While similar to our recent tip concerning Joint Tenants with Rights of Survivorship (JTWROS), we find this tip is actually forgotten about rather than accidentally used. Never by us … Give us a call if you have any confusion/questions!

China, Greece, Puerto Rico and Summer

With slowing earnings growth here in the USA and frothy capital markets, it did not take much to put fear into participants. Combine the trifecta (China, Greece, Puerto Rico) of events and summer doldrums and you get a dicey market.

China:

Shanghai Composite

That’s a pretty scary 20%+ negative move by the China market … Until you take a longer view.

Shanghai Composite LT

With eyes of a wider spectrum, looks like to us a much needed breather. No matter, the weight of all at once, Greece, China and Puerto Rico have been too great for markets to maintain a positive attitude, thus far.

Watching close!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFPJK Street Cents Logo

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Stumbling into Mid-Year …. John guest on LIVE Wharton School Business Satellite Radio

dudGreece, Puerto Rico and China synchronized negative events to end most capital markets mid-year around the world in dud like fashion. Almost all gains for the year for US markets were erased. (They were small to begin with!)

Not to worry, this is a journey not a sprint!

Wharton Radio guest AGAIN

Kent Smetters, a Wharton Professor who hosts a Wharton University Sirius Satellite radio show on Tuesdays, was kind enough to ask me as a guest again yesterday.

After several callers, one with a VERY complicated situation, the spirit of entering this industry to help EVERYONE (or as many as possible) was once again achieved.Wharton Your Money

Even after all the speaking events, talks in front of many, and a general fondness for public speaking ….

I was wound tight before the show!

Oh…the producer asked if I would do another soon….Sure !

Have a Great Middle of the Year Wednesday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

JK Street Cents Logo

 

 

 

The Week that was…EU, Markets, JK Technology Blackout and Podcast Update

After a great week, tomorrow brings another fun summer weekend, we hope you had a fun week as well, and have been able to stay cool, somewhere. With internal and external items occurring this week, we thought it fun to take a look from a macro and somewhat humorous viewpoint.

Greece, and more importantly Spain, have recently taken center stage on the fear front of the EU situation. One week ago today, Spain’s third largest province, Valencia, (think Houston comparison in the US) called in a life line and requested government help as they ran out of funds.

As expected capital markets have cooled as earnings have been good, but given the EU situation and summer doldrums, wide, emotional swings, are expected and we were not let down. We still feel those with a negative posture have the best seat in the house currently.

JK Fin Closet

The client named  J.K. Financial, Inc – Technology Black Out was not to be. With a super high-speed confirmed connection sitting in our closet (see picture), but not connected, the official switchover is delayed until next week due to several absent members of our technology team. We do have two of our six planned HD TV’s working and wires hanging from the ceiling to prove it.  The new temporary numbered VOIP phone is working well, although it has not been stressed tested yet.  It’s all good, as without the adventure we would not have any advancements, not to mention humor in our lives.The promised podcast offering for those interested continues, unfortunately in incubation form, as we have several podcasts complete, but as of yet have not been able to achieve the quality presentation we desire. One technology conquest at a time please….

Have a Great, Safe, and Fun Weekend!

JK

214-706-4300  www.jkfinancialinc.com

Greek Relief deafened by the Pain in Spain

The weekend elections in Greece provided for the best possible results for Greece to stay in the Euro, (some candidates were adamant that an immediate break was necessary) and while our Asian market friends applauded in relief, the good feeling was gone before the rest of the world could wake.

Spain 10 year government bond yields have once again jumped over 7%, a so-called threshold rate for ongoing operations by a government. We have a detailed analysis on this in our upcoming Newsletter, currently under production but in the interim have included this chart from Bloomberg.

As a follow up from our prior post the PGA’s US Open garnered an american as the winner, but in true small world fashion, the leaderboard was stacked with half of the top 10 players from International locations.

For those curious, our char broiled out-of-state family destination is just fine, however there is a VERY strong contingency of ongoing firefighters, who at present have 60% of the fires under control, all of which are well north of our location.

Have a Great Day!

JK

214-706-4300   www.jkfinancialinc.com

The US Open and Greece, Huh? …..our Travel Plans

With a weekend (6-17-12) of important elections across the pond in Greece and neighboring countries Spain and Italy fighting for a reasonable government bond rates, (Spain currently nearing the terrible 7% rate) we draw an unlikely comparison to the US Open Golf championship, which is also happening this weekend, and the global events of late.

How small is the world these days?

Taking a look here at the US Golf world rankings for this weeks US Open will reveal a few interesting, small world facts:

  1. The top 3 world golfers are UK, not US
  2. Only 6 of the top 10 are US
  3. Only 11 of the top 20 are US
  4. Regarding the US Open championship players in 2012, 10% are Asian
  5. Only 3 United States residents of the last 10 US Open Championships

With the world being such a smaller place we are all co-dependant and thereby susceptible to each other’s illness.

Along with a Greek election, the FOMC will make an announcement next week. We think more “Cow Bell” stimulus is unlikely, although Janet Yellen’s June 6, 2012 speech last week gave us less confidence in our thinking.

Before getting too heavy heading into your weekend, a quote we often repeat to ourself comes to mind “It is never as good as you think, OR as bad, just somewhere in between.”

Travel Plans

Today Donald spends day 3 of 5 in Las Vegas at our favorite institutional research conference of the year, Applied Finance Group and will return on Sunday after extending his trip a few days for family fun.

Over the weekend I travel to a potential char broiled vacation spot for a few days next week as forest fires have put the trip on tentative notice. We both will be comfortably tethered come Monday as market participants decide if they like the outcome of the vote, AND we have a new, “smaller world”  US open champion.  What country will he be will be from?

Have a Wonderful Weekend! Talk to you next week.

JK

214-706-4300   www.jkfinancialinc.com

Happy Memorial Day, Greece is the Word

This coming Monday, Memorial Day, is the national holiday honoring and in memory of those in the armed forces who work so hard to allow the rest of us to enjoy the safety and lifestyle we have today. With a nephew and MANY close friends and acquaintances currently serving, I feel the need to say an extra special thanks to all of you.

THANK YOU FOR ALL YOU DO!

Markets:

Greece is the new Word and certainly will make for headlines over the next coming weeks. We would not be surprised to see large market movement in both directions. As the old saying goes, “buy low and sell high” it’s really that simple.  So when things are on sale we will do so, and visa versa.

Lastly, as today marks the movement from one grade to another for my oldest, let’s not forget to spend time with the important ones in our lives. I really do agree that the days go slow but the years go fast!

Have a super long weekend.

I am out most of the morning today, returning briefly later in the afternoon and we will be out on Monday.

Best Wishes and Happy Memorial Day!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

 

How A Greece Default Might Actually Work? Simon Derrick, Bank of New York Chief Strategist Explains

Yesterday (5-15-12) I had the opportunity through a CFA related event to visit with, and listen to Simon Derrick, chief strategist of Bank of New York and London resident. Simon had one of the most vivid explanations of actually how Greece may default, as such I wanted to share it with you.

In actuality, it may be a smoother transition that many thought. These are possibilities, not guarantees, but the best I have personally heard so far.

On a Friday after most market participants have headed home, sometime after the next Greek election which occurs on June 17th 2012, according to Simon, Germany could announce there is nothing they can do for Greece, but they will attempt to help the other countries as much as possible. This would set into motion a Greek announcement that their country will have a two-week bank holiday in order to keep from having a run on the bank.

During the bank holiday the printers start churning, and a new currency is born. This currency is then disseminated throughout the country for use and the Euro currency is sent packing.

A second less immediate thought, but very important item is the approval of new Passports for travel between the neighboring countries. (This is interesting and speaks to the tourist and travel related importance for Greece.)

Capital markets will certainly do what they do with rates and currencies, most likely devaluing the newly minted currency. While no one knows the exact amount, 20-30% would be reasonable and could even be higher.

Here is where it gets interesting, after the dust settles, and some type of stabilization occurs (assuming it does), Greece, a tourist centric country, is sure to throw out extremely great travel deals to kick-start their newly formed country. Since their currency will most likely be valued so low, they will have a very strong advantage over their former connected countries in attracting tourists.

Maybe we will all be taking Greek vacations soon, only time will tell.

Here is a recent Bloomberg interview with Simon talking in greater details about currency and mentioning rates, which we will be speaking about soon.

 

Have a Great Day!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

 

A Political Weekend Across the Pond

The fact that so many US investors, including ourselves, will be watching the various elections overseas is as interesting as the elections themselves, and points to how small the world has become.

This weekend France, Germany, Italy, and Greek citizens enter the polls to set their political wishes in motion. I find it interesting these countries have a weekend vote, which may help the turn out, not a bad idea, but I digress.

France’s current chief Sarkozy, is facing a formidable foe and according to Robert McTeer will most likely not make it as a return leader. If this happens, austerity measures changes may be at hand.

An Italian vote is hopeful to reinforce confidence for Mario Monti, who took over in November from the scandal ridden Berlusconi chair. This vote, if correctly forecasted should be a stabilizer.

A less important regional election in Germany, however if polling is correct the opponent to the current incumbent  Merkel party will win, causing slight concerns as change may mean an adjustment in philosophy. This vote, if correct is more a hairline crack in the ice, but worth keeping an eye on.

A Greek parliament vote could expedite this little brother’s country’s exit from the Euro. (On a side note, yesterday in an all day seminar a very well-known international debt portfolio manager called the break up of the Euro within 3 years.)

As you know we are not politically inclined, but as the many moving parts begin to churn this weekend, we will be interested in the reactions from market participants. While something similar to the Oscar’s may be more entertaining, market participants, including ourselves will be focused on the above voting!

Have a Great Weekend!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

Energizer Bunny Capital Markets….”Going and Going”

For those familiar with the Energizer Bunny that keeps “Going and Going” we liken the capital markets of late to the famed commercial.

Yesterday capital markets were faced with further discontent from G-20 members who were meeting just south of the US border in Mexico city, only to have market participants shrug it off later in the day. Along with G-20 concerns, gas prices have risen to levels that provide a small headwind, nearing $110/barrel WTI.

Last night, our timely party poopers, the S&P Ratings Agency, put Greece on Selective Default notice. In true Energizer fashion the capital markets smartly appear to keep “Going and Going.”

By some estimates over $450 billion has left the capital equity markets in the last few years in search of a new home. If our feelings are correct, that money may be returning, happily providing our “Going and Going” markets. Markets never rise in a permanent straight line, but let’s all enjoy the ride!

Today, from the Eastern US area, Donald starts his second of three full days of training on our new rebalancing allocation system, Tamarac. So far our expectations have been met, which means further enhancements to investment portfolios. Thank you technology!

Have a Good Day!

JK

214-706-4300

www.jkfinancialinc.com

One Size Fits All, A Greece Example

Much has been made of the Greek situation as of late, especially given the emotional protests and debtor lifestyle the country is currently enthralled. While Greece as a country and their policies are not without flaws, we thought a simple and unique comparison may be of interest.

Imagine for a moment, there was only one shirt for us all to wear.  When the European Union was established, many of the participating countries were similar to kids. Many were not mature, had limited individual problems, and excitedly entered the EU, as a one size fits all shirt was just the ticket.

A one size fits all shirt, promises ease of decision-making, a loose commonalty, and similar identity, just as it might if we were children, all wearing the same shirt.

One Size Fits All

As countries mature, they begin to have their own identity, make their own decisions (good and bad) and begin to gravitate in unique directions. The one size fits all shirt no longer has many of its advantages. Our mythical shirt, which made us all feel stronger as kids and gave us a nice feeling commonality, is actually becoming restrictive. Just like in life, countries grow at different paces and to totally different sizes.

The cost of our mythical shirt suddenly becomes too expensive for one in our group

When it becomes time to replace our mythical shirt, again for a one size fits all, one person in our group cannot afford the replacement cost. In our example this person lacks some of the levers to purchase a new shirt; devalue its currency, default, make individual austerity measures to slowly begin saving enough for the shirt. (Maybe they don’t even want to wear the shirt anymore.)

As time continues to pass and our group continues to change and move in unique directions the many advantages of a one size fits all shirt MAY lead to a rejection of the group as a whole, leaving one or many to opt for their own shirt, thereby controlling cost, growth and size on its own.

This is just our mythical example, but it does have merit and may bear a resemblance to what Greece is dealing with currently.

Have a Great Day!

JK