Tag Archives: Greek

Greece …. Summer Friday

So everyone (us sometimes too) has said Greece is SUCH a small country and there has been SOOO much time to prepare for a possible Greek exit (Grexit) from the Euro that it should not affect the capital markets.

WRONG!Greek Exit

Markets didn’t listen to the pundits. The tone of each day for the last few weeks has been set by the rumor mill of the Greek demise or resurrection. Even interest rates have been acting like jumping beans. Not only that, but once markets/rates start moving, due to summer doldrums, they just exaggerate for the day whatever direction its pointing.

Our recommendation, ignore the noise!

Summer Friday

Next week brings more exciting news for our office, as well as a mid year mark, and a holiday weekend…. Ahh … but that is next week. Today is a Friday … enjoy your weekend and if you are on the road, be safe out there !

Have a great one!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

A Political Weekend Across the Pond

The fact that so many US investors, including ourselves, will be watching the various elections overseas is as interesting as the elections themselves, and points to how small the world has become.

This weekend France, Germany, Italy, and Greek citizens enter the polls to set their political wishes in motion. I find it interesting these countries have a weekend vote, which may help the turn out, not a bad idea, but I digress.

France’s current chief Sarkozy, is facing a formidable foe and according to Robert McTeer will most likely not make it as a return leader. If this happens, austerity measures changes may be at hand.

An Italian vote is hopeful to reinforce confidence for Mario Monti, who took over in November from the scandal ridden Berlusconi chair. This vote, if correctly forecasted should be a stabilizer.

A less important regional election in Germany, however if polling is correct the opponent to the current incumbent  Merkel party will win, causing slight concerns as change may mean an adjustment in philosophy. This vote, if correct is more a hairline crack in the ice, but worth keeping an eye on.

A Greek parliament vote could expedite this little brother’s country’s exit from the Euro. (On a side note, yesterday in an all day seminar a very well-known international debt portfolio manager called the break up of the Euro within 3 years.)

As you know we are not politically inclined, but as the many moving parts begin to churn this weekend, we will be interested in the reactions from market participants. While something similar to the Oscar’s may be more entertaining, market participants, including ourselves will be focused on the above voting!

Have a Great Weekend!




Spring Break, Third Time is a Charm…Fingers Crossed

Tomorrow starts spring break at our household, even if the kids are saying it starts at 3 pm today, when school is out. We are planning on returning to a relatively new place for our family for the third time in the last year.

Our inaugural trip marked the terrible Japan earthquake, followed by a return, but delayed trip in late summer. The late summer trip was delayed due to the finalization of the debt ceiling vote. Our best intentioned trip marked the beginning of the Greek problems along with the first ever US debt downgrade.  You cannot make this up !!

By rough calculations, our 10 days presence at our destination has been associated with about 10% capital market movement. Fingers crossed….By taking note of this fact, we hope to extinguish the possibility of a third time is the charm event!

Have a Super Day and a Great Weekend!

I will be out most of next week, but will gladly be tethered electronically.