Tag Archives: Jeremy Siegel

Jeremy Siegel …. Investopedia 19 thousand views … Market Comment

This felt like a Wharton Business School week.

After guest hosting the Wharton Sirius Radio show on Tuesday, on Wednesday who pops out of the hallway for a speaking event that I was attending, none other than Wharton Professor, researcher, and noted author, but Professor Jeremy Siegel.20160518_202754686_iOS.jpg

Thanks to a quick handed friend nearby, a picture was taken. There was even enough time to ask if he was friends with Kent Smetters, the host of the radio show, which Professor Siegel said of course he new him. Not being too impressed by the fact that I was a co-host just 24 hours before… I asked Professor Siegel to say hello to Kent for me anyway…

This time, unlike Professor Siegel’s last appearance, we were able to get his slide deck… expect some great posts in the future as we dissect his views …. ya ya nerds… Hey this guy is kinda famous in our industry!….still nerds…

Investopedia Update – 19k Views ! WOW

In an effort to help many, in a public manner, this week we were notified that our top three Investopedia answers had received more than 19 thousand views.

This was great news as the weekend question answering is doing good and gave new enthusiasm!

Market Note

On Wednesday of this week, the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) released their minutes from the most recent official meeting on April 26-27. There is a slight delay for completion and digestion purposes.

Bottom line – FOMC members are telegraphing a possible June rate hike. Short term a headwind, long term a positive from our perch!

We have some great information from various sources on this subject …. BUT it is a Friday and this has become a longer post than our normal Friday… Enjoy your weekend and look for more info soon on all of the above!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Live for the Third Time on Wharton School’s Sirius Radio Show

After a quick request to be a guest host for the third time for the Wharton School Sirius Business radio … The third co-hosted radio show is complete.

Wharton School Business Sirius Radio Live AppearanceWharton Your Money

Even with the knowledge of two prior shows, the heart rate was most notably higher just before the producer, Michelle, connected me to the live show.

After an hour of fielding calls and answering questions, the third show was in the books, and once again a TOTAL blast!

Very flattered to be asked, very happy to be asked back immediately again in the future !

Great Questions and a wonderful way to give back !

Jeremy Siegel Today – In Dallas

Speaking of Wharton Business School, today Jeremy Siegel is back in town giving a keynote speech later today. Full report to come soon!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

 

Jeremy Siegel Talks Markets

 

At a recent CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) Annual Forecast dinner, legendary Author, Investor and Professor, Jeremy Siegel chatted candidly with the audience.

Just by chance, recently he had a two hour podcast interview on Bloomberg’s Masters in Business.

Combining these two lengthy events, the following themes and forecasts (yep we will code this forecasts for future reference here in our digital diary) resonated:

  • Net real returns on stocks, netted out after inflation are about 6.5% over the long term – (Ok by us)
  • Siegel thinks the next 3-5 years will be a slightly lower 5-5.5% – again net of inflation
  • Inflation will not rise to the 2% target of the Federal Reserve (FED) due to deflationary forces – (We disagree)
  • QE (Quantitative easing) helped during the 07-09 crisis but has overstayed it’s welcome (We agree)
  • Emerging Markets (Young international country stocks) are poised to do much better over the next 5-10 years than many if not all capital markets (We 100% agree) – the trouble is when will they will finally get their feet under them from a timing standpoint according to Siegel (We totally agree again)
  • Increased regulations such as Dodd Frank have undermined productivity, leading to lower wage growth, investment and over all GDP (Ahh…this is so hard to measure, but seems like too much affect to us- we disagree)
  • Jeremy mentioned three times he was concerned with deflation over the next 1-2 years (Nah!)

We threw our thoughts in too … just for fun, and to also be held accountable.

We will check back in the future to see who got it correct !

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

 

Don’t just do something …. Sit There ! – A Great Employment Report – Jeremy Siegel

Liz Saunders, strategist and peer in the industry recently penned a great quote about the current market environment …

Don’t just do something … Sit there !

Given the current market movements it seems hard to do sometimes … and while we are making minor adjustments, NOTHING big!

Last Friday a Super Employment Report

Here is what we have all been waiting for:

  • They are coming back – workers that is
  • Greater overall workers participation rate

 

2-6-16 Participation rate

Unemployment rate falls into the 4’s — 4.9% — NICE

Fewer Unemployed

2-6-15 Unemployment Rate of 4.9%

Best of all — they are getting paid more!

2-6-16 Average Hourly Earning change

With two third of the economy being consumer driven… Can the following be bad?

  • More are working
  • Fewer are unemployed
  • They are FINALLY getting paid more

Just remember …

Markets have predicted something near 9 of the last 5 recessions !

Have a Great Wednesday !  Tonight I get to attend a dinner with Jeremy Siegel .. More to come !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

 

 

 

Thoughts from Former CIA, NSA Director – General Michael Hayden

If the resume wasn’t impressive enough, some of the actual experiences General Michael Hayden shared during a recent conference were incredible.Michael_Hayden,_CIA_official_portrait

“Cold War, Cuban Missile crisis, Checkpoint Charlie, Defcon  3 over Soviet Nuclear weapons in October of 73”  these times were more dangerous according to General Hayden  …. “Today is more complicated!”

The  70 year old, Pittsburg, PA born General was certain our next major threat would not be in his words “of State” but from cyber threats.

It makes sense as technology is available to all, and unfortunately all are not friendly. It was very comforting for a General to have such a strong awareness and concern for this.

General Hayden also mentioned an obvious, but often forgotten fact that when countries get in a state of stress, they often distract with aggression.

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS Jeremy Siegel dinner later this week!

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Conflicting Opinions – Why investing is so fun or hard – depending on your perspective!

Recent Stately Forecasts by Legendary Investors:

Carl Icahn “Danger Ahead

David Tepper ” Take Money Off the Table

Jeremy Siegel ” This is a minor correction …. Dow 19000 by years end

Warren Buffet “ I HAVE NO IDEA WHAT WILL HAPPEN TOMORROW OR NEXT WEEK …..

The answer we find is pretty simple:

J.K. Financial, Inc.  “Never Go All in or all out!”

Have a happy, “un-conflicted” day !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225


Inspiration By Colin Powell, Raging Higher Markets C/O Jeremy Siegel, Economic Fits with Craig Alexander

During the conference in San Diego, CA, last week, I had the opportunity to listen to many great speakers and terrific viewpoints. Here are a few items from the top three speakers,  in my view:

Colin Powell

Colin Powell who spoke for approximately two hours, not only on a few very delicate subjects, but also with self deprivation humor, quoted

“I wish I could put all of President Reagan’s optimism in a bottle and pour it over the heads of the politicians in Washington and say, Let’s get on with it!”

Regarding China as an enemy :

“The only battle with China will be at Wal-Mart over the size of shelfspace….they are our friend and wonderful competitor…”.

On work ethic and Perfection: 

“You never get it perfect, just getting it better is super, as long as we keep getting better…”

My favorite inspirational closing quote,

“It is not where you start in life but where you end up!”

 

Jeremy Siegel

Professor and noted Author Jeremy Siegel, led another terrific discussion, more directed towards capital markets and statistics. 

His most interesting topic, in my opinion happened to be about P/E ratios, which coincidentally you may recall was the subject of our last post.

According to Professor Siegel’s research, the 50 Year Average P/E ratio when interest rates are below 8% is a stunning 19 ! (Yes, Nineteen!)

From his point of view the capital markets, currently at a 14 P/E ratio, could rally by 20% and still not be at Professor Siegel’s average. (We sure hope he is correct!)

Another very interesting statistic concerning the E, in our P/E ratio, again check out our last post for a quick P/E refresher if necessary.

According to Professor Siegel, who also likes the S&P 500 (our favorite too) as a barometer for the US Economic situation, earnings were $91.47 for the S&P 500 on June 2007, the top of our capital markets before the recession, and will hit $95 later this year. Professor Siegel sees the market easily claiming new highs given this fact. (Again, we hope he is correct!)

Craig Alexander

Lastly, economist Craig Alexander, left a big impression as well.

According to Mr. Alexander’s research, Financial Crisis led recessions, like what we just had are:

  • 2 times as long
  • 2 times as deep and
  • 2 times as slow to recover

In his opinion, the Emerging Markets pulled the world through the latest recession, but may be fully valued currently.

The true unemployment rate is around 16% and will take some time to recover, thereby keeping a lid on inflation and interest rates, according to Mr. Alexander.

His most impactful quote for me:

“Investing for the next five to ten years will be like driving in the fog, there will not be a clear picture and there will be issues that emerge suddenly….. Get used to it and get over it, or you will be left behind!”

I hope you enjoyed my quick review of the high points on the San Diego conference. It is always nice to get away, but even nicer to get back!

Have a Great Day and a Super Week !

JK