Tag Archives: JOLTS

JOLTS – Job Openings and Labor Turnover – Continued Openings – Very Tight Hiring Currently

Back in May of this year, we first took note (for this Economic Cycle) of the JOLTS data , a measure of Job Openings in the US Economy….At that time an all time high had been hit as measured by this chart again back from May 2021!

As an interesting side note, take notice of the yellow shaded area- this is the NBER Recession tracking (National Bureau of Economic Research) date of a recession… in May of 2021 we were still waiting for the NBER to state if the recession was over and the exact length…. NOT A GOOD measurement for investment as this was way old news even back in May of 2021! Ok digressing a little but thought it worth it…

JOLT Release as of August 13, 2021

Back in May we noted :

  • Tons of Jobs Available
  • Job Seekers Market
  • Tough on Employers
  • Could lead to higher wages (Inflation?)

Here is last weeks reading…

Another 20% higher print…extrapolating our comments above, 20% harder on all points!

Note once again the yellow bar is gone and the tiny little recession call made by the NBER- again certainly NOT a timing issue i.e. If you wait for them to tell you the recession is over you will likely be left in the dust!

For all those hiring …. patience, this will like cure its self much like our Lumber clearing post here…. but not in as fast of time….

Looking for a job, you are in the drivers seat… remember, burn no bridges it’s a VERY small world, but you are in a great place… enjoy and best of luck!

Have a Great “Jolts” Updated Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Indeed Job Openings Country and Global Review- Stunning Improvements

A while back, we reviewed the JOLTS – Job Opening Statistics here . We noted at that time, the index was at an all time high, putting pressure on Employers to find workers….

Indeed Job Openings

With copyright permission granted a while back, lets take a look with greater precision at different areas of the country and world for that matter…. Data from Indeed Lab Solutions

Big US States – Wow – Florida pushing almost 40% increase in job listings versus 1-2020! Maybe not surprising after hearing all of the traffic heading to the State from other areas of the country.

Texas and Big Texas Cities

All between 20-30% higher ! Wow again!

Around the Globe

Very interesting to see the listings adjust so dramatically close to the openings and closings of countries…

All in all, very stunning improvements across the Globe!

Have a Great “Indeed Job Openings Review” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

JOLTS – Job Opening Measurement ALL TIME Highs – Great News for Job Seekers, Tough News for Employers

Over the last two weeks during the Mauldin SIC conference (which we are still digesting), multiple speakers mentioned the Jolts Index -Job Openings Labor Turnover – A Bureau of Labor Statistic (BLS) that measures job openings.

Back in August of 2020, here we first took note of the movement in the Index as it made a turn at the bottom of this chart and actually surprised to the upside.

JOLTS Index Today

Fast forward to today and noting what the Mauldin speakers featured, this Index is at an ALL TIME high!

Key Takeaways

  • Tons of Jobs Available
  • Job Seekers Market
  • Tough on Employers
  • Could lead to higher wages (Inflation?)

Have a Great “JOLTS Update” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

More Positive Data Points …. Factset Earnings … JOLTS Job Openings … PPI Producer Prices …

As promised, last week, we have some more good data points….

Again, we feel Market Participants maybe a bit overzealous here … expect bumps …

BUT … the earnings and economic front are showing good data points…

S&P 1 Month Earnings Estimates From Our Friends at Factset

Take note of the usual guide down historically in this chart, with this months most recent, bucking the trend… Nice

8-3-20 Fact Set Earnings estimates

JOLTS – Job Openings and Labor Turn Over – aka Jobs Available

The Jolts report is a good measure of the possible jobs available in the US Economy (Watched closely by the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee – The FED)

What is important about this report, is the expectation was for about 4.9 million jobs and the actual came FAR ahead at 5.9 million … Nice X 2

8-11-20 Jolts 4.8 exp 5.9 actual

PPI – Producer Price Index – Price of Production Items

Lastly and briefly, so as not to have you think you have fallen into an Economics class….haha

The PPI is a broad measure of domestic producer sales prices… when it’s going up, there is demand and more importantly when down, slack…

There are various ways to measure this Economic report (Core, Month over month, year over year, %)  … all measurements beat their estimates handily …. Nice X 3!

8-11-20 Core PPI

There you have it… some nice market and economic numbers for your summer hump day!

Have a Great “Economics Beating Expectations” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

Three Economic Charts that should make Us all Feel Good – 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Post great recession, the Unemployment rate went into double digits … +10% …. Many including us thought the new natural level of unemployment may be near 6% – prior to the great recession most believed 4% would be the all time low…

3.8% Unemployment Rate

The regular monthly Employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Friday, June 1 that the Unemployment rate hit 3.8% — Yes 3.8%!

Wow….

 

6-3-18 Unemployment Rate Fred

Naysayers would say this will put pressure on wages, pushing up the CPI – Consumer Price Index – indirectly forcing the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to raise rates fast — possible inducing an inverted yield curve…. leading to a recession… got that… sorry for the long domino effect– but this is how Wall Street thinks… perception can become reality… Let’s check the CPI …

6-3-18 CPI St Louis Fred

The CPI looks fine and has not moved up too much.  Here is a possible reason why…

Jolts – Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey

5-8-18 JOLTS Fred

Essentially this is a relatively new statistic that many follow included the FOMC, that shows what the US Economy is producing in the form of jobs…. an increase in this chart means more jobs are available…

More Employment, but more Jobs… No Inflation —

Nice…

Have a Great “Lower Unemployment” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

USA Employment Update and Consumer Analysis – NICE!

Consumers are the ultimate driver of an Economy, especially the US economy. By most estimates, the consumer and his/her spending makes up over 66% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Production) a broad measure of economic health.

Here is an interesting analysis of the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) most recent monthly Employment Report … mentioned on our “Break In”  of our Friday post.

Employed Consumer

The highest, most blunt view of employment is the Unemployment rate, usually figured in % total unemployed.

At 4.4%, the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate many, including ourselves thought maybe possible via post great recession!

The little Economy Engine that could!

img_0792
Take this job and shove it

Confident enough to walk away from the job? Sure looks like it.

Said another way, individuals have enough confidence in finding a new job, they are not afraid to walk from their current one.

A new high soon?

 

img_0795

Job Opening- aka JOLTS

Brought to the attention of many by our current Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, the job opening report also known as JOLTS report is showing clear evidence of job opportunities.

This chart helps explain why workers are not afraid to walk from their current job as well (prior chart.)

Jobs are abundant!

img_0800

Total Employment to Population

Certainly the Great Recession has had lingering effects. Focusing on the move upward since 2009, one can see the line heading in the correct direction, possibly giving confidence to those above who are leaving their current job.

Bottom line, a more confident, job opportunistic consumer economy! 

img_0794

Full Circle Now- Higher Spending? Higher GDP?

Going back to our original statement, with so much tailwind for the consumer coming from the employment of the US Economy, it would not be a stretch to think higher spending is in the cards, and a better GDP!

NICE!!

Have a Great “Healthy Consumer Economy” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com