Tag Archives: JOLTS

More Positive Data Points …. Factset Earnings … JOLTS Job Openings … PPI Producer Prices …

As promised, last week, we have some more good data points….

Again, we feel Market Participants maybe a bit overzealous here … expect bumps …

BUT … the earnings and economic front are showing good data points…

S&P 1 Month Earnings Estimates From Our Friends at Factset

Take note of the usual guide down historically in this chart, with this months most recent, bucking the trend… Nice

8-3-20 Fact Set Earnings estimates

JOLTS – Job Openings and Labor Turn Over – aka Jobs Available

The Jolts report is a good measure of the possible jobs available in the US Economy (Watched closely by the FOMC – Federal Open Market Committee – The FED)

What is important about this report, is the expectation was for about 4.9 million jobs and the actual came FAR ahead at 5.9 million … Nice X 2

8-11-20 Jolts 4.8 exp 5.9 actual

PPI – Producer Price Index – Price of Production Items

Lastly and briefly, so as not to have you think you have fallen into an Economics class….haha

The PPI is a broad measure of domestic producer sales prices… when it’s going up, there is demand and more importantly when down, slack…

There are various ways to measure this Economic report (Core, Month over month, year over year, %)  … all measurements beat their estimates handily …. Nice X 3!

8-11-20 Core PPI

There you have it… some nice market and economic numbers for your summer hump day!

Have a Great “Economics Beating Expectations” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

 

 

Three Economic Charts that should make Us all Feel Good – 3.8% Unemployment Rate

Post great recession, the Unemployment rate went into double digits … +10% …. Many including us thought the new natural level of unemployment may be near 6% – prior to the great recession most believed 4% would be the all time low…

3.8% Unemployment Rate

The regular monthly Employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported last Friday, June 1 that the Unemployment rate hit 3.8% — Yes 3.8%!

Wow….

 

6-3-18 Unemployment Rate Fred

Naysayers would say this will put pressure on wages, pushing up the CPI – Consumer Price Index – indirectly forcing the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) to raise rates fast — possible inducing an inverted yield curve…. leading to a recession… got that… sorry for the long domino effect– but this is how Wall Street thinks… perception can become reality… Let’s check the CPI …

6-3-18 CPI St Louis Fred

The CPI looks fine and has not moved up too much.  Here is a possible reason why…

Jolts – Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey

5-8-18 JOLTS Fred

Essentially this is a relatively new statistic that many follow included the FOMC, that shows what the US Economy is producing in the form of jobs…. an increase in this chart means more jobs are available…

More Employment, but more Jobs… No Inflation —

Nice…

Have a Great “Lower Unemployment” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

USA Employment Update and Consumer Analysis – NICE!

Consumers are the ultimate driver of an Economy, especially the US economy. By most estimates, the consumer and his/her spending makes up over 66% of the US GDP (Gross Domestic Production) a broad measure of economic health.

Here is an interesting analysis of the Bureau Of Labor Statistics (BLS) most recent monthly Employment Report … mentioned on our “Break In”  of our Friday post.

Employed Consumer

The highest, most blunt view of employment is the Unemployment rate, usually figured in % total unemployed.

At 4.4%, the unemployment rate has fallen to a rate many, including ourselves thought maybe possible via post great recession!

The little Economy Engine that could!

img_0792
Take this job and shove it

Confident enough to walk away from the job? Sure looks like it.

Said another way, individuals have enough confidence in finding a new job, they are not afraid to walk from their current one.

A new high soon?

 

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Job Opening- aka JOLTS

Brought to the attention of many by our current Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen, the job opening report also known as JOLTS report is showing clear evidence of job opportunities.

This chart helps explain why workers are not afraid to walk from their current job as well (prior chart.)

Jobs are abundant!

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Total Employment to Population

Certainly the Great Recession has had lingering effects. Focusing on the move upward since 2009, one can see the line heading in the correct direction, possibly giving confidence to those above who are leaving their current job.

Bottom line, a more confident, job opportunistic consumer economy! 

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Full Circle Now- Higher Spending? Higher GDP?

Going back to our original statement, with so much tailwind for the consumer coming from the employment of the US Economy, it would not be a stretch to think higher spending is in the cards, and a better GDP!

NICE!!

Have a Great “Healthy Consumer Economy” Monday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com