Tag Archives: Kyle Bass

August 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Review – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our August 2021 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast audio format as well as Video!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

Hope you enjoy!

August 2021 Video

YouTube

Financial Planning Tip(s)

Unemployment Fraud Alert

Multiple frauds occurring in continuous weeks, led us to write this post, reminding those that the fraudsters are still at it.

Their latest game…using stolen Socials and Employment information to gain unsuspecting employers Unemployment compensation.

While likely some accidentally fall through the cracks, we have yet to experience anything other than a mild inconvenience….

But do not let your guards down and if a victim, keep your eyes peeled for other items for the near term!

Child Tax Credit Confusion

After repeated confusion, here in this post we outline the new ADVANCED child tax credit payments than sneakily commenced several months ago…

Also a warning of an overworked IRS to keep line of sight to the funds in case we need to pay them back in the form of a higher tax bill when completing our 2021 Form 1040 Personal income tax return in April of 2022!

Capital Market Comments

Kyle Bass Forecasts

In this podcast derived post, we re-visit Kyle Bass again after a few year hiatus…

Here are his latest forecasts…. hopefully they come true

  • The Federal Reserve will continue to support the markets with continued purchases.
  • Federal Reserve feels responsible for Capital Markets … i.e. Every Federal Reserve member has a Bloomberg Investment terminal on their desk and post public talks, Fed members go back to their office to check the markets reactions to their comments.
  • Much more inflation than actually as printed by CPI – (Consumer Price Index) Example of car price increases up 300% over last thirty years, but CPI auto costs increased 5% over that period.
  • Cost of Food increases may cause social inequity problems.
  • Oil hits $100 per barrel this year … due to mal investment over the last 7 years.
  • Short term interest rates not to go higher than 1.5% and long term (10 year) rates will not go higher than 2.5%. i.e. Bernanke Helicopter speech outlines the difficulty in raising rates a lot once they are at a lowered level for some time.
  • We push through the Delta Variant and there is a REAL re-opening effect that works its way through the economy (Hope this is correct!)

Have a Great Day, Talk to You at the End of September!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Thoughts and Forecasts From Kyle Bass … Oil $100/Barrel By Year End 2021 ?

The summer garnered a new found passion towards Podcasts…. While we do our Monthly reviews and Newsletters in an Audio, Video, Podcast like format…. Most podcasts are an hour or longer, making for interesting deep dives into the discussion, especially if the person(s) talking are very intelligent in the specific material….

Hat tip JP for the shove in sharing your favorites…. I have taken the ball and run with it!

In another crossing with this interesting investor, Kyle Bass, on a paid podcast platform, specifically for professional investors…. we highlight Mr. Bass’ current thoughts…

Six years ago, we highlighted his thoughts here in our post and in reviewing his comments, his bets were very correct!

Forecasts and Future Expectations from Kyle Bass

Once again, like we did six years ago, in our public Diary of sorts, we outline Kyle’s thoughts for future reference …. so here we go:

  • The Federal Reserve will continue to support the markets with continued purchases.
  • Federal Reserve feels responsible for Capital Markets … i.e. Every Federal Reserve member has a Bloomberg Investment terminal on their desk and post public talks, Fed members go back to their office to check the markets reactions to their comments.
  • Much more inflation than actually as printed by CPI – (Consumer Price Index) Example of car price increases up 300% over last thirty years, but CPI auto costs increased 5% over that period.
  • Cost of Food increases may cause social inequity problems.
  • Oil hits $100 per barrel this year … due to mal investment over the last 7 years.
  • Short term interest rates not to go higher than 1.5% and long term (10 year) rates will not go higher than 2.5%. i.e. Bernanke Helicopter speech outlines the difficulty in raising rates a lot once they are at a lowered level for some time.
  • We push through the Delta Variant and there is a REAL re-opening effect that works its way through the economy (Hope this is correct!)

These were actually done in order of the Podcast (basically taking notes while listening) but the most interesting in our opinion are the last three points…

Marked as Forecast, which we have had a lot of lately…will review for accuracy in the future!

Have a Great “Kyle Bass” Forecasting Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Lunch with Kyle Bass…Forecasts – Oil, China, Interest Rates… We will review in the future!

At one of the favorite events of the year, Three Part Investor Ideas Conference where over 70 publicly traded companies present in rapid fire succession…. and about 300 professionals in the investment community, present party included, listened to Kyle Bass speak for an hour over lunch.

As we give thanks later this week, I will speak to this conference and a special memory from last years event to be thankful

Who is Kyle Bass11-15-16-kyle-bass

Famed hedge fund manager who correctly bet on the real estate bubble of 07-09. Resident and office in Dallas Texas. Talk about timing.. Kyle just happened to open his hedge fund in 2006… good start right out of the gate.

The best thing about Kyle is he is not afraid to speak his mind and tell folks what he thinks… Can you feel the forecasts coming?

We will code this post forecast and look back in a year of so and see how they did!

Here are the biggies:

Oil – Opec reaches a deal and oil rises and stays in the mid 50’s to low 60’s by early to mid 2017. As an add on, Bass was positive about the US and the ability for the US to pump oil domestically along with the positive economic influences that may seep into the domestic economy.

Rates – Kyle is thoroughly convinced rates across the board are WAY too low and will rise, possibly gradually or maybe faster over the next several years. Foreign negative interest rate bonds are in his cross hairs as unsustainably low and silly in his opinion. Domestic interest rates should be much higher according to Bass and will march that way, with numerous short term rate increases on the horizon, again according to Bass. The Taylor Rule, an economic ruler that mixes growth and rates to come to a normal interest rate level was mentioned by Bass; According to the rule rates should be MUCH higher.

China Financial System Problem — The China BANKING SYSTEM has problems, but China does not explode…. just for entertainment purposes we clipped a google search showing a much different picture of Kyle’s thoughts… careful what you read…..

img_0629

 

So Bass, thinks the currency will devaluated by at least 20% over the next several years and  strongly thinks at least 10% over the coming year… ahhh a super easy to follow forecast…

Again, a far cry from the end of the world headlines you see from our google search…

Thanks Kyle…we will check back at a later time to see how these forecast went!

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com