Tag Archives: Liz Saunders

Reviews of FULL Two Days of Virtual Gathering…. Cyber, Inflation Transitory NOT, Interesting Fatigue from Event…

Last week the team happily carefully gathered and divided to maximize our time at a two day Virtual Conference that is usually “In Person” lasts about a week, and is located in alternating years on the West Coast and then the East…

The conference lasted two days (Tuesday and Wednesday 10 am-3 pm) and was a straight (small morning break of 20 minutes, but no lunch break or bathroom break) five hours each day, with overlapping events except for several “Main” general sessions such as a talk with Ben Bernanke….

The method of attack was for each of us to choose what looked the most interesting and if there was an accidental overlap of desired events, one change to a different session. Oddly, and maybe this speaks to each of desires and roles, we rarely overlapped… there were a few sessions that were “Full” , for the record not sure how a virtual session can get full, but oh well…

As of this time, the sessions are not up for post live review so our review here is part for our own notes (living diary) and mostly for your shared knowledge …

Cyber Threats and Interesting Home Threat Note

Regular followers know we take Cyber security VERY seriously, and just by chance yours truly ended up in lengthy Cyber Security sessions on both days.

Key Takeaways from an office standpoint were more two factor authorizations (extra step of logging into important programs that includes a text to cell)

For the record over the weekend after telling the team last week “I always have my cell” a chance package delivered to the office led a trip up to the office with the cell in the car and the need to log into an important program….. Guess I DON’T always have my cell…haha

A new interesting reminder for those that work from home at all was a statement “If your home router is older than three years and especially if not a commercial router, you may be unsecure!” This of course led to a quick review of each of our home set ups with the note of having a now 14 year old gamer, and a complete security review of all at home security was completed…. just for extra security additional security was set up along with a special at home “Guest Wifi” rather than the family’s for friends who may carry unwanted programs into the network…

Inflation Less Transitory than Thought

Jerome Powell, chair of the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) during a speaking event last week mentioned that the coming inflation may be less transitory than initially expected…

Recall this was the main debate at the Mauldin SIC conference early in the Second Quarter as mentioned here and in our Q 3 2021 Newsletter..

Several guests, most notably Lizanne Saunders echoed this thought during a fast speaking opening session…

The basic thought originally was the CPI line below would roll over quickly, now more are thinking it may last longer, especially with the afore mentioned FOMC on record to allow without intervention…

Interesting Observable Fatigue from Event

This was one our first events of this length and without much of a break, we all noted an interesting (high) level of fatigue. It seems like there would be no reason for any tiredness given sitting in front a computer for 10 hours in two days, but is sure was.. heck we were not participants, only observers…

Will keep a tab on this moving forward, sure others have experienced the same, but our first notable occurrence.

Have a Great “Virtual Conference” Update!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.



March 2016 Video, Monthly Review, Tax Tip By John Kvale

What a different a month (or two) can make. Here is our March 2016, all new…trendy format Monthly Capital Market Review and last minute tax tips, along with a Video for your viewing and listening pleasure. Hope you are enjoying!

 March 2016 Video



Final Reminder Tax Tip

As Moto Moto said in Madagascar, these tips are so good we had to say them twice!

Our favorite tax savings ideas that still work for last year (2015 taxes):

  • Itemize your standard tax deduction
  • HSA- Health Savings Account
  • Fund an IRA
  • Simplified Employee Pension – SEP deduction/contribution against non W-2 income (1099)

Tax Fraud Alert

As noted here, last month we had our first incidence of fraud in February. We are now up to 9.5 so far, as we have one incident that we think was fraud, but could not be proven!

Be sure to keep your guard up!


Economic Update

PMI Manufacturing Index

PMI  (Definition: The ISM manufacturing composite index indicates overall factory sector trends. The relevance of this indicator is enhanced by the fact that it is available very early in the month and is not subject to revision.) Graph from our friends at Econoday.

Less than 50 is contraction, greater than 50 is growth.

3-31-16 PMI from Edonoday

Employment Situation

While there was a small increase in unemployment claims late in March, the overall employment picture, via hiring, as can be seen below, again from our friends at Econoday, remains steady. It is worth noting, these reports can be volatile.

3-31-16 Employement Situation from Econoday

Capital Markets Update

Updated Support and Resistance

This Graph, included in our Newsletter, shows the updated Support and Resistance lines and levels of the current market.

As mentioned in our Yellen Speaks post, after telling capital market participants that slower rate increases were more likely (late 2015 she told the world to expect four increases, now only two) capital markets smartly broke through the lower upper resistance. Now, can we go to new highs ? Maybe …

Never go all in or all out !

3-30-16 S&P Chart

Oil and Market Correlation Chart

For those that think oil does not affect the sentiment and capital markets, look at this chart from Liz Saunders :

3-31-16 S&P Crude correlation

Sorry for the motor mouth/fingers … there were a lot of moves worth noting, especially very near the end of the month !

Have a Great Day!

See you again at the end of April !

John A. Kvale

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
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Don’t just do something …. Sit There ! – A Great Employment Report – Jeremy Siegel

Liz Saunders, strategist and peer in the industry recently penned a great quote about the current market environment …

Don’t just do something … Sit there !

Given the current market movements it seems hard to do sometimes … and while we are making minor adjustments, NOTHING big!

Last Friday a Super Employment Report

Here is what we have all been waiting for:

  • They are coming back – workers that is
  • Greater overall workers participation rate


2-6-16 Participation rate

Unemployment rate falls into the 4’s — 4.9% — NICE

Fewer Unemployed

2-6-15 Unemployment Rate of 4.9%

Best of all — they are getting paid more!

2-6-16 Average Hourly Earning change

With two third of the economy being consumer driven… Can the following be bad?

  • More are working
  • Fewer are unemployed
  • They are FINALLY getting paid more

Just remember …

Markets have predicted something near 9 of the last 5 recessions !

Have a Great Wednesday !  Tonight I get to attend a dinner with Jeremy Siegel .. More to come !

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225





China Currency Devaluation in Perspective

The USA and World Capital Markets have moved lower of late after China announced that they would allow their currency to float lower against the US dollar as well as world currencies.

China is huge, and if they catch a cold (or worse), the world could too, but we wanted to shed some light on the subject in a more unbiased manner.

The Fears:

  • China is slowing and having to reach for larger levers to jump-start their economy – Ok… fine by us
  • China is exporting their deflation by lowering the cost of goods they sell to other countries, not to mention increasing their competitiveness – Ok, if other countries could, they would too
  • Selling into China will be more expensive — As an export country, this is not hugely relevant

Our thoughts:

  • Markets are frothy, earnings are only so so, this is an excuse to bring valuations back in line with where they maybe should be.
  • Is this a really big devaluation?

Oh…take a look at this chart from Liz Saunders at Schwab …   Big Devaluation?

China V Euro



Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225