Tag Archives: Markets

Pacing Ourselves Preview, A Runners Perspective …Where did January Go? …Friday

In one of the first longer runs, a 1/2 Marathon (13.2 miles) many years ago…. The Cardinal sin of a new longer distance running was made….

Starting too fast !

There is a saying in running, for every minute you go out too fast, you will lose two coming back.

Next week we will take a detailed look to see if the Capital Markets may have started this year’s race too fast!

2-1-18 SP 500 year chart

Speaking of pacing ourselves …. Wow, January went fast .. Slow it down !

Today is a Friday heading into a late Winter weekend with Tennis Travels on the horizon .. Enjoy your weekend, talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Why do Capital Markets Move Up and Down?

Most recently the capital markets have taken a breather after a very long, almost unstoppable, run in an upward direction.

Have you eve wondered what exactly makes the markets move in one direction or another?

The true answer is pretty simple; No one is 100% certain, especially in the shorter term!

Often many write, (present party included), on the reasons for capital market movement and the recent events that have occurred. Over longer periods of time generally the markets are relatively rational, but not always. Just as some days we wake up and feel terrific, and other days for no apparent reason, we rise to a long, tough, less positive day, the capital markets will suddenly take a negative tone as well, sometimes for almost no apparent reason.  

Many who have visited our office comment on one of our market reminder sayings written on our window with erasable ink “The Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”  This saying became very popular by short sellers during the late 90’s tech bubble, as many short investors were correct in the direction and the valuation, but went broke just before they were vindicated.

Here are a few items that dramatically change market direction, Big Multinational events, Money Flows to and from certain areas of the markets, Investor Confidence, and often peer pressure. For peer pressure examples, take a look at the Financial Times  Market Macro Map popup, of the world markets, over a few mornings, and see how the tone is set globally and moves across the world.

Many times we agree with the market headlines on the direction and reason, but not always. There are times when markets move, especially in the short term, for reasons that are unknown to anyone.

Have A Good Day!

JK

The Fear of the Unknown; Bernanke Update; State of the Union

To some the Capital Markets may seem mysterious and maybe even schizophrenic at times, due to the sudden frequent change of character.    

Not Really!    

The Capital Markets are very intuitive, insightful, but often overly dramatic. As we mentioned in our Trifecta post earlier, participants of the Markets now have a lot on their plate as they deal with several different possible structural changes.    

Bernanke is getting more support as the end of the month deadline approaches, which in our opinion is good news. (We think stability in offices is a good idea.)    

Today, we add one more worry for participants, as there have been rumors of an aggressive speech at the State of the Union tonight. In our opinion much of this rhetoric is overstated and will be forgotten in just a few days.  Even with the passing of some of these worries, Capital Markets may feel a hangover of sorts as many global markets have taken their cue from our land and become squeamish themselves.    

State of the Union 2010

Tune in tonight and keep an eye out for any decided changes from earlier views.  If there are, we will update you accordingly.    

Have a Great Day!    

JK

Earnings, Earnings, Earnings-Currently One of the busiest weeks of the Quarter

This week marks one of the busiest week for earnings of the quarter as many companies begin reporting their 90 day treadmill results.

As we had said in an earlier post, earning season is going well.

You might ask why the markets are not acting well? When markets turn tail and begin a downward move, almost every stock within the capital markets comes along without discretion. Even companies reporting excellent results are often pulled down by their peers.

The tugging downward of good companies by their not-so-do-well brethrens makes for excellent investment opportunities.

Is the Glass Half Full or Half Empty?

Have a good day!

JK

A Structural Trifecta for the Capital Markets to Digest

Over the last recession, fundamentals deteriorated, and the capital markets began a squishy journey starting in 2008 and firming late first quarter of 2009. Fundamentals are the key drivers for the capital markets, but they are not the only driver. Structural changes can also have a major impact on our capital markets.  

Over the last several business days, the capital markets have been hit by a trifecta of structural changes:  

Trifecta

  1. During a publicly traded financial company conference call (we think this was no coincidence), President Obama hit the airwaves and laid out plans to dramatically change the financial industry. Details shocked many participants and immediately changed valuations of many financial companies.
  2. A question of Bernanke’s re-appointment (due by end of January), which seemed a 100% lock just weeks ago, seeped into the picture.
  3. An unexpected interim party change in a Senate seat, from a historically compliant party region (Boston, Ma.)   

Given the fundamental positives we have had at our back over the last year, it will be interesting to see how investors stomach the latest capital market movements. In our opinion, this is the first test many investors will have seen in almost a year, and is a process of shaking out the weaker hands of the market.  

Have a Great Day!  

JK

Nice Start to Earnings Season – Remember today is a Witching day

With the unofficial start of earnings season marked earlier this week, Alcoa,  which disappointed many investors, we began to take a few deep breaths in anticipation of a tough season.

Fortunately Alcoa was the exception, not the rule, as for the most part, earnings have been good, with company managers gaining confidence in their outlook, customers, and future for the year, which bodes well for employment i.e. As growth and confidence from a company level increases, hiring of employees will most likely follow.

Lastly, today is a Friday Witching, which means synthetic contracts expire, this usually puts short-term unforseen trading pressure on stocks and the indexes along with extreme total market volume.

Have a Good Weekend !

JK

Black Friday, Cyber Monday Update– The Winner “Suzie the Saver”!

As a quick update from last weeks humorous duo of fabricated personalities, we wanted to give you a quick status report.

It appears as if “Sammy the Spender” did make a few runs to the store, but was trumped by “Suzie the Saver” as we firmly established a new holiday lingo “Cyber Monday“. 

As a side note, I found myself on a few cell phone text updates for holiday specials, as an interesting way to monitor company sales, the technology they were using, and this rather new form of marketing.

Overall we estimate retail and related sales were not as robust as expected, as the consumer, rightly so, remains frugal in spending. This situation will form an interesting end of the year struggle as public companies via for a smaller sales pool, at reduced rates. We will keep you updated!

Have a Good Day!

JK