Slowly Returning to Normal, or Some Similarities
With hindsight available as our measuring stick, it appears that sometime between March and April earlier this year things across the country really began to return to some type of normal.
As noted in our blog at street-cents.com and in the prior newsletter TSA throughput a measurement of airport travel looks to possibly eclipse 2019 highs later this year.
Restaurants began opening, some earlier and some much later, depending on the geographic location with patrons welcoming their reopening.
Uncertainty remains on the remote versus office environment. Most think the new normal will not be a complete office environment, but some blend of remote since it is readily acceptable and well tested.
Inflation, Here to Stay or Transitory?
As discussed in detail in our latest Q 3 2021 Newsletter, the most prevalent debate at this moment among market participants is the topic of inflation and it’s staying power, or just transitioning through. The importance of this subject is directly related to the FOMC, chaired by Jerome Powell and the timing of his reduced stimulus. All eyes are on the inflation debate and the timing of the decrease in stimulus and will be sensitive to timing changes.
Not surprisingly economic numbers roared as they met favorable comparisons from last year, but in very recent days, have given the appearance of a return to normalcy already, decreasing concerns of longer-term inflation.
Capital Markets being forward looking are now trying to see what is around the next corner. As earnings continue to return to normal, valuations are finally beginning to be decreased from extremely stretched proportions and as long as earnings outpace returns a continuation of this should occur.
Time is really our friend, and once again the good news is, this will all play out in quarters rather than years. Things can certainly change quickly, and it is not a time to swing for the fences, which we never do!
Have a terrific summer and talk to you at the beginning of fall.
John A. Kvale CFA, CFP