Tag Archives: QE Taper

Chair Yellen … Please Continue, the Economy can handle it, and may need it!

Tomorrow and Wednesday mark another FOMC meeting.  It is expected they will reduce asset purchases by another $10 billion per month to a new $35 billion monthly level ($85 billion monthly near the start of 2014.)  We look forward to Chair Janet Yellen’s public testimony on hump day for clarification and guidance

If it has not happened by now it will not

Quantitative Easing aka QE or the purchase of fixed instruments by the FED to lower rates was a clever and handy tool when first used, but has overstayed its welcome. Rates have been low enough for long enough, we think it’s done all it can do!

The side effect of such purchases are a ballooning balance sheet (the FED creates money synthetically to buy the assets … not to worry there is a debit and credit entry for those accountant likes).

Here is a chart from our friends at JPMorgan of the afore mentioned balance sheet that also finds its way into our upcoming newsletter (that’s Trillions $$$) … getting pretty big!

Feds Balance sheet

The FED has a problem

In our coming newsletter we have an article concerning the FED’s ability to raise rates with so much extra money sloshing around in the system, which is a direct byproduct of the QE.

Janet … Go ahead and continue to slow those asset purchases (or even go more than $10 billion reduction) please! The US economy can handle it.

John A. Kvale, CFA, CFP

www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave #590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

May 2013 Summary of Eventful Capital Market and Economic Items: John Kvale of J.K. Financial, Inc. (Video)

Goodbye May 2013, we wanted to hit a few of the high points! The year is not slowing down so far, but with the official entrance into the summer doldrums we expect slower motion for a while.

Here is our May 2013 Capital Market and Economic summary video, by John Kvale

The 10 Year Treasury

Interest Rates from high above on a longer term do not look to bad…actually it looks very good.  As a general rule, lower rates are helpful to valuations, interest costs along with margins and long-term confidence.

10 Year Yield 1960 to Current

10 Year Yield 1960 to Current

Yikes ! When we look at a shorter term chart, the story may be changing as rates have begun to rise somewhat faster than many may have expected. Rising rates act as a mild headwind unless they rise too fast. We will keep our eyes peeled on this matter.

10 Year Yield YTD 2013

10 Year Yield YTD 2013

Ben Bernanke’s Punch Bowl AKA QE Taper…not Tipper

If you are one that likes to debate…step right up. The debate is on, and it is anyone’s guess when the Fed will slow the gigantic $85 billion monthly purchases of fixed securities. For the record, the Fed has been mashing on the gas long enough now that they actually purchase more than $85 billion monthly, as prior purchased securities are maturing and have to be re-invested.Bernanke

This debate is a major contributor to our prior subject, interest rates. IF and WHEN the Fed really let’s off the gas pedal, the fear is what rates will actually do….or more over, how fast and how far they will rise. Buckle up and let’s all hold on, if the Fed draws a line in the sand we may begin to see who has been swimming with no swim trunks…..not us of course!

Continued enthusiasm….Party like it’s 1999

The most surprising continued element happening this year is the huge rise in market valuations given the slow growth that is being recorded. Do not get us wrong…things are getting better in MANY aspects of the economy, but are theyEnthusiasm REALLY getting THAT MUCH better?  We do not think so, given the data we have at this time. Current market growth was 3% over the last quarter…awesome that is great…but a 10% plus move in the US capital markets is a bit extreme…in our opinion.

Have a Great Day!

John Kvale

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225