Tag Archives: Recession

Q 3 2019 Newsletter Video Audio Podcast Review By John Kvale

Welcome to our Video and Audio Podcast Review of our Q 3 2019 Newsletter. For those on the road or just unable to grab the time to read, our podcast type review gives you the behind the scenes insight to our thoughts, observations and deep views of the entire Newsletter.

Click Here for direct link to an electronic version (an early peek-good ole fashion paper versions are on their way to you shortly) and here for our Newsletter page

Let’s get going!

Q 3 2019 Newsletter

Click for PDF/printable version of Newsletter

And here is your review!

Why We Write!

Here we are again:20190630_133340742_iOS

We had planned on leaving this out due to repeated appearances here in our blog and in the Newsletter – but in true “Break In” like format, as this post is completed and the video – hopefully the local wifi is strong enough for uploading … the time is spent in Austin Texas at this moment in another rain delay- the same exact place the original article was written!

Tax Talk/Review

Change Likely the New Normal

After two decades of only minor changes in the Tax Law… it was overhauled and many changes were made that were reflected in our 2018 tax returns.

This neat chart is a nice reminder of the current brackets and can be helpful in income distribution tax bracket management.
Tax Bracket Graph

Inverted Yield Curve Update

This chart featured in our Newsletter is a slightly different term comparison of the 2 year (we like the 90 day) versus the 10 year, but a wonderful historical view of inversions and recessions. We have fully inverted for over a month now and if we use this historic guide as our yardstick a recession would be in the cards mid year 2020!

JPMorgan Inverted Yield Curve History

Social Security Update3-20-19 - Invitatation to SS Info Event with Tom Clark_Page_2

We have begun a detailed review of the late spring event and it is going great. Weekly we dissect a section of Social Security Expert, Tom Clark’s presentation and give handy links to greater details and explain in bullet fashion the main points. Here is a link to the Audio on a special page here at our blog and you can also click here for a link that will pull up each complete post!

There are tons of nuances regarding Social Security, Disability, Death Benefit and Medicare decisions…we look forward to discussing many more with you as the summer weeks occur!

We hope you enjoy … talk to you near the end of Summer!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
www.street-cents.com

Q 1 2016 Audio Newsletter Review By John Kvale

We are happy to bring to you our Audio Review of the Q 1 2016 Newsletter.

Q 1 2016 Audio Newsletter Review

 

YouTube Direct Link

Newsletter Link

Have a Great Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

 

 

 

April 2015 Financial Planning Tax Tip, Capital Market and Economic Review (Video)

Welcome to our monthly Economic, Capital Market, and Financial Planning tip of the month.

This months Financial Planning Tip of the month is a reminder of an important Estate Planning Document

Once again a special thanks to all of  YOU … the best clients and friends as your experiences have again given us the subject matter for our Financial Planning Tip of the Month.

For those new to our writings, we touch on the most pertinent Financial “stuff” along with a video of my mug that has even more specialized details of the latest month as well as this post.

Ok…let’s go!

VIDEO

You Tube Direct Link  or   Vimeo Direct Link

 

The Power of Attorney – Another great Financial Planning Tip:

With the vacation season coming, dust off that Power of Attorney document and take a look!

This document frequent comes in two forms, both very powerful.LivingTrustEstatePic

  • Financial Power of Attorney
  • Health care Power of Attorney

These documents can be an invaluable part of your Estate plan. Be sure we have a copy too, for easy access. These powerful documents are relatively simple, and usually only a couple of pages in length.

 

Just how tough this last recession was

This neat adjustable graph comes from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank research. What stands out is just how deep the recession was. Because it was so deep, it is not surprising that the recovery is taking so long. The sicker we are the longer it takes to get well.

5-1-15 Last Four Recession Recovery

This is one of the longest recoveries on record, in part due to the severity, while not predicting another recession … the longer we go in this business cycle the faster we approach our next slowdown … our radars are up!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

http://www.jkfinancialinc.com
http://www.street-cents.com
8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225

Third Quarter 2014 J.K. Financial, Inc. Performance Report Cover Letter (Clients)

Dear Investor:

In this Quarter’s Newsletter, the lead investing article is about entering a period of “Black Ice” investing. The possible mistake is the tense as we stumbled into the end of this quarter in rather wobbly fashion, dragging almost all assets to a loss for the quarter and leading us to think we may already be in a period of “Black Ice” investing. This being the case, “historically” the final quarter is the best if history continues to rhyme.

Last quarter we mentioned possibly “leaning” towards international markets. While the Ukraine situation is disturbing, it has so far, been much less disruptive than many initially expected. Global sanctions have greatly inhibited their fledgling economic recovery. Our possible “lean” has been delayed as of yet. No one rings a bell when it’s time to move, but with a comfortable position currently we can afford to wait.

Even with “guarantee” being a four letter word of investing, we decided to use it anyway. We do “guarantee” that economic cycles will occur, over and over again. We “guarantee” there will be another recession, and this very weak recovery cycle is also long in the tooth. We look for continued economic recovery, but a slowdown is a possibility, and increasing in probability as time continues.

Interest rates have behaved better than we could have imagined this year. We have had no spikes upward and little disruption in the fixed income markets. We believe higher rates are in the cards sooner rather than later, and continue to protect against major downside in this area of the capital markets.

Getting back to our “Black Ice” investing theme:

A “Black Ice” situation for driving rhymes with our current investment backdrop. We are not sure if it is dangerous our not, or even if we will hit any. A few highlights of our “Black Ice” investment parity from the Newsletter:

  • Do not hit the Brakes
  • Can we pull over and wait it out?
  • Enter “Black Ice” at the correct speed for your safety
  • I am skidding, so counter steer!
  • There will be back seat drivers (Cassandra and Pollyanna’s)

Enclosed is your Q 3 2014 Quarterly Performance report. With only a smidgen of gains in larger US company equity asset classes, most other asset classes retreated. While we want to always make money, given our belief of a frothy environment, and entering “Black Ice” we are fine with minor moves at this time. Working off the excesses in a sideways fashion is better than the alternative.

Sincerely,

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Enclosure (Q3 2014 Performance Report)

Recession Over-According to NABE (National Association for Business Economics)

In a possible very untimely announcement, the NABE proclaimed the recession is over yesterday. See chart of 44 economists surveyed:

Nabe pie chart

“The NABE forecast panel declares the Great Recession of 2008-09 to be over. More than 80 percent of
respondents believe that an expansion has begun. Still, the toll of the recession has been severe, with real GDP
declining 3.8 percent from its peak-– a post-World War II record.”

The capital markets hit a bottom in March of this year, a full seven months prior to the NABE’s announcement. Remember capital markets are a forward looking mechanism, and as such ferreted out this announcement well in advance.

To us what is more interesting and important, is not the announcement, but the revisions that came with the announcement.  Keep in mind, expectations versus realities, Expectations vs. Reality.

NABE economists expect a 3% GDP growth now versus 2.7% in May, and a 3.4% Q3 09 GDP growth now, versus .7% in May.

Again the expectation was increased to be more in line with realities, which was an upward move.

Have a Good Day!

JK