Tag Archives: Research Affiliates

Emerging Market Manager Thoughts … In the Air

As this post hits your in-box, I am in the sky to a coast line state for multiple business meetings for the remainder of the week.

Recently in our “Sipping from a Fire Hydrant Post” a lunch with three emerging market portfolio managers was discussed.

As a reminder, Emerging Markets are smaller, less mature countries that MAY be in growth mode … think Brazil, Russia, India and China aka The BRIC’s (Examples, not recommendations … must pick carefully)

Emerging Market Portfolio Manager Thoughts

Research Affiliates latest expected return … higher means better return, BUT farther right means more risk too … no free lunch!

6-8-15 Research Affiliates Expected Returns

  • More volatile than mature markets (this is obvious, but worth repeating)
  • Where the growth is looking into the future (think mature/USA markets 50-60 years ago)
  • Political stability is VERY important (bad policies can bankrupt a small country)
  • Hold off on investing in this category until rates in the USA start to rise (WHAT … See below!)

WOW… I saved the best for last, these guys make their living investing in emerging markets, and they all but said, hold off until rates rise as they were concerned on how their currencies would move as rates rise in the USA.

Sounds like an opportunity!

Will chat with you Friday from the Road

Have a Great Wednesday!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225




Where the next 10 years best returns will be, according to Research Affiliates – PS Travels – Monday Holiday

It’s tough holding, or even better, investing, into capital markets (or asset classes) that have not been performing well (never go all in of course.) Over the past several quarters we have re-iterated multiple times,  (here and here and here) that we believe international markets hold better value.

Research Affiliates – Robert Arnott

One of the most respected investment and research firms in the industry Research Affiliates and their founder Robert Arnott,  recently opened a portion of their research to all investors. Here is their estimate of equity market returns for the next 10 years.

We were happily surprised at their conclusions:

Research Affiliates Q 4 14 Expected 10 yr return Equities Bar

US large and small companies score VERY (farthest right and fourth from right) low on Research Affiliates expected 10 year return.  We agree!

Have a good day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

PS Traveling on Friday and Cathy is having a procedure that may keep her from the office as well,  Monday is a Holiday and our office will be closed !

PSS More on this research soon!

8222 Douglas Ave # 590
Dallas, TX 75225