Tag Archives: Robert Kaplan

Kaplan Town Hall Review … Second Most Recent FOMC Update Meeting Last Week… Procrastination Leads to Lucky Update

As mentioned in our embarrassing post here recently The Dallas Federal Reserve had a Town Hall meeting with special guest speaker Dallas federal president reserve Robert Kaplan.

One of our favorite things to do is listen to people like Robert Kaplan in less public venues in order to try and get their candid or less guarded opinions.

This will make the 10th article talking about Kaplan and as such you may notice that we are pretty big fans.

Kaplan Town Hall Candid Comments

What was interesting about this town Hall meeting was that Kaplan for the first time since his tenure at the FOMC dissented about the federal reserves decision due the fact the the FOMC made a three pronged approach for their interest rate movement decisions.

What do we mean? In the released report from the FOMC chaired by Jerome Powell but with Robert Kaplan a voting member at the meeting they released the following unique statement

1. We intend on having interest rates lower for longer – In Kaplan’s opinion and ours, that was enough

2. We will keep interest rates lower even if inflation ticks up – this is the comment that Kaplan had an issue with and we do as well as we have written multiple times ( here here here and here ) that inflation may actually raise its head , Kaplan agreed!

3. Until a very lower rate of unemployment. is established we will also wait to raise rates

That’s just too many strings to attach to the FOMC and to especially hand over to future decisions makers!

Kaplan, during the Town Hall Event

Maybe the reason we like Kaplan so much is he seems to think very much like we do and have similar concerns. By attaching these three points together future Federal Reserve board members are being bound by a multi point limitation that could cause problems. What if one of these points gets dramatically above target but another is not thereby limiting the increase in interest rates?

Kaplan … like us, believes that there is a time in the not too distant future where interest rates will need to be raised and normalized not only for inflation limitations but also for industries that rely on higher interest rates.

Kaplan also mentioned that low interest rates for too long of a period of time may cause people to take greater risks than they otherwise would.

Lastly, Kaplan once again seeing eye to eye with our beliefs, said that low interest rates for too long of a period of time becomes not only helpful but a stimulus that is unneeded once the economy gets rolling.

Time will tell but once again we like Kaplan’s thoughts on higher interest rates potentially sooner rather than later but likely a year or so out!

Updated Thoughts From More Recent FOMC Statement

So time flew past us on getting this post to you, but in true making Lemonade out of Lemons fashion, something neat occurred….

Our Procrastination lead to a Lucky Update!

Last week, the FOMC released their latest statement here and guess what?

No strings like the prior meeting, just simple slow economy stuff and, Kaplan voted FOR the opinion… no dissenting this time.

Maybe the FOMC members have already backed down from their prior “Strings Attached” discussion!

Have a Great “Kaplan FOMC” Update!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

Finally Taxes are Done … Rob Kaplan Federal Reserve Chair Town Hall Personal Embarrassment …

Whew…. that was easy…. NOT!

Finally we can say goodbye to 2019 taxes … Wednesday Marked the due day for personal Federal Income Tas Extensions.

Luckily (where work and opportunity cross – neat saying heard recently) in the fall of 2019 we went through EVERY taxable portfolio and confirmed tax basis – both reported and unreported to the IRS…. never knowing what this year would bring. This exercise effectively minimized tax documents to one report per account.

Glad we are done!

A Nerd Incident with Robert Kaplan and the Dallas Federal Reserve

On Wednesday of this week, yours truly attended a Virtual Town Hall chaired by Robert Kaplan (pretty big Fan, here is a link to nine articles we have written for those interested).

In true nerd multitasking form, the Zoom meeting started, on the Cell, why not listen while jogging? Cell inserted into runners band on arm and away we go!

Expect comments on the talk, it was very good and interesting…..

Post jog, cell back off runners arm band and onto the couch as the live question and answer session had commenced.

Then this:

Next Question is from John!

Quick glance to the cell and an Unmute flashing button was covering my entire screen! Yikes

“John you must Unmute your device

Twice from the moderator then twice from Robert Kaplan

With no question, the Unmute button was not going to be touched! Finally after what was likely 5 seconds, but felt like 5 awkward minutes, the moderator and Kaplan moved on!

Whew, embarrassing moment averted… or was it!

A question or two later and then this:

“Ok, that was our last question, let’s go back to John and see if we can get his question answered!

Oh No!!!!

This time the Zoom video was shut off before the Unmute logo hit the phone screen….

Can’t make this up!

Hope you enjoyed a nerds chance encounter with Robert Kaplan and maybe even got a chuckle.

Enjoy your Friday, and your weekend …. going to be chilly for the first time in our neck of the woods…. talk next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.

A Dallas Texas based fee only

Financial Planning Total Wealth

Management firm.

jkfinancialinc

street-cents

FED lowers again …. but only (.25%) – Longer Term View – Friday

Last Wednesday the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell and attended by Dallas’ own Robert Kaplan, lowered rates by .25% to 1.75 to 2.00% Range…

FOMC Lowers rates once again

With a ton of information coming at you (Newsletter is full of interest rate talk) we will keep this short…

The FOMC lowered rates a second time, making for an unofficial change in this cycle from raising to lowering of rates….

FOMC Rate now

While the chart above may seem extreme … let’s look longer term….

FOMC MAX RAte

It’s ok… a .25% move is not that much, but we really would like room to lower when the inevitable recession comes…. who knows, if the tariff talks get fixed, raising of rates may be in the cards…. wouldn’t that be an interesting turn of events… hand tight, we have your back!

Today is a wet Friday, enjoy your weekend and grab that umbrella.

Have a Great “Interesting Rate Cycle” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Fed Walked the Tight Rope Perfectly – Preview of New Scammers You Need to be Aware – Friday

On Wednesday July 31, 2019 the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) led by Jerome Powell and attended by our own Dallas based Robert Kaplan, did something they have not done in over 10 years…. LOWER RATES.

8-1-19 FOMC FED funds rate

While we crowed ‘Not Necessary” they walked a great tight rope…

In this post announcement article…. and  somewhat funny CNBC article, over a dozen … so called “Expert” firms completely disagree in all directions on what the Fed will do next!

PERFECT!

With disagreement on what they will do next, no expectation will be ….. well … EXPECTED!

If I were a Fed official, that is exactly the way you want it … freedom to stay put, lower or raise without fussy Market Participants all weighing in on the same side of the fence.

They also stopped the winding down (selling reserves back to the market) of balance sheet reduction, which was a net tightening.

8-1-19 Total Bank Assets

So let’s say they are in neutral now and have created the freedom to drive wherever they want! Nice..

Sorry we got a bit deep on this, this week, but we felt it important and wanted to keep you in the know!

Speaking of in the know – We have collected a few new examples of scamming that we will bring to your attention next week – One so clever it’s hard to believe!

Ahhh…but it is a Friday….

Care to guess what today and next week brings?

tennis-2042723__340

Last looong, big tournament of the summer…..

Thanks goodness for a new unlimited Cell plan and neat technology … Will be in touch!

Have a GREAT Friday/Weekend Summer day(s)!

John A. Kvale, CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

Our First Accidental Post in almost 2000, the Perils of Bad Wifi Connections – All Eyes on the FOMC next week – Friday

On Wednesday at 9:23 AM, just over an hour before the regularly scheduled 10:30 am post was to go — a quick review of the 10:30 post led to an update from the Ipad which had saved data on the device and then updated it when the review occurred… and some how sent the following title …

img_4065

If you saw it and wondered… now you know – for the record first time in almost 2000 posts now! Of course some have gone off at 10:30 pm rather than am and earlier than planned – but this was the first totally unplanned post – sorry for the confusion, if it caused any! I like to think of it as authenticity 😀

FOMC in View

Next week the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) let by Jerome Powell and attended by our on local Dallas President, Robert Kaplan – (our newly admired local president) better lower rates!

It’s hard to feel like they must lower rates as the global economy is slowing but not falling off a cliff …. Their (FOMC) public rhetoric has led Market Participants to be almost certain they are going to lower. If they don’t lower rates – disappointment!

Should be interesting!

Have a GREAT Friday and a Super Weekend – talk to you next week!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

June 2019 Podcast Video, Financial Planning and Capital Market Update – By John Kvale

Hello and Welcome to our June 2019 Financial Planning and Capital Market Update!

If you are too busy to read, feel free to listen as we describe our post and thoughts in friendly podcast format as well as Video!

June – 2019 Video

 

Break In:

The Perot Museum Thursday November 14th, 2019 from 6:30 to 9 PM for a fun filled event!

Newbies –

We like to articulate our thoughts and review on a Monthly basis our Financial Planning Tips, Capital Markets and current events!

 

Financial Planning Tip (s) –

Password Safe Keeping Idea and 1 Minute Video

After attending a conference that mentioned multiple times the troubles associated with Digital Assets AKA your passwords, a brain storming session led to this terrific post about how to safeguard your password, upload to the private portion of your Vault, password your document, and then refresh occasionally. A possible Excel file with links that is itself heavily/strong password protected!

We even completed a video and added it to our Video page on our main website here!

 

Capital Market Comments –

FOMC Pre and Post Meeting Update

Here in the Preview meeting post and with Robert Kaplan audio (below) explaining how he and the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) go about determining what to do with rates, we also mentioned many expecting a LOWERING of rates….just a few quarters ago, unthinkable.

Here is the Kaplan Audio:

MP3 File

Wave File

Post meeting Market Participants…

Fast forward to our Post Meeting Post here , and while we did not get a lowering of rates, the great consensus feel like the following quote signaled they are coming all garnered from this statement and supported by the lowered GDP expectations – chart below:

“…. but uncertainties about this outlook have increased…”

6-19-19 GDP Estimate FOMC

For a sleepy time of the year, there is a lot going on – That’s what we are here for!

Have a Great Day – Talk to you at the end of July!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
www.jkfinancialinc.com
street-cents

All Eyes on the Federal Reserve – Will they LOWER (yes you read that correctly) Rates? Audio from Local Fed President, Robert Kaplan, on how the decision is made!

Ok…so the Social Security event forced us to pull together new audio equipment – we never knew how quickly we would utilize these new tools for events such as what follows – We hope you enjoy these pertinent comments directly from the horses mouth!

Unthinkable just a few quarters ago…. Market Participants are thinking there may be a FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) LOWERING of rates – yep lowering!

This week the FOMC will announce their decision, based on many factors as you will hear from the attached audio – what makes this weeks meeting special is the slight expectation of a lowering of rates and this meeting includes the FOMC estimates of the economy and an interview with chief Jerome Powell post announcement –

Now – what they are looking at to make the decision!

At our recent CFA (Chartered Financial Analyst) sponsored event, we were fortunate enough to have an hour with Robert Kaplan, Dallas Federal Reserve President. We were also fortunate enough to get audio of the event…

What the Fed Watches to make rate decisions20190528_170905120_iOS

According to Robert Kaplan, Audio below, he along with his fellow FOMC chiefs watch the following, just to name a few items:

Cyclical Factors – Short Term Indicators – Less important to Kaplan – I.e. CPI, Earnings, Interest Rates, Employment rates – basically all the items we read on a daily basis or are bombarded with in “Breaking News! Like format – Interestingly and very correctly from our perch, Kaplan is not a big advocate of placing much weight on these factors – see next as he mostly ignores the short term noise – Wisely in our opinion – see audio below

Structural Factors – Longer Term Trends – MORE important to Kaplan and becoming more important to the entire FOMC board due to his repeated review – I.e. Population growth/demographics, Government Debt, Corporate Debt, TECHNOLOGY INNOVATION (huge importance), World Growth – Again, totally agree – see audio below

Individual Company Response – Kaplan talks to over 30 large and small company CEO’s monthly along with continued in- person visits with companies to help determine, just what the economy is doing along with longer term Structural disrupting factors – see audio below

Group Input – With multiple chiefs from a dozen districts bringing their collective input to the table, a theme hopefully develops!

Here is the Audio in different formats for different devices – with three different types we hope at least one works on your device!

MP3:

Wave File:

OGG File:

Our Thoughts

Our bet is no lowering of rates, which may be met with disappointment (lower markets)!

Have a Great “FED Decision Week” Day!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents

Fed Speak Spurs Markets: Accidental Reporting – Great Audio Totally Contrary to Reports … Friday

Mid-week, Jerome Powell current Federal Open Market Chief (FOMC) hinted that rate movement may be under review – this, the exact sentence is what Capital Market Participants applauded:

“…we will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”

As simple as it may sound, it’s meaning is strong. Simply put, the FOMC is aware of headwinds being caused by the tariff talks and are considering it as a factor in their estimate of the growth of the economy. Here is a link to the actual speech for those nerds like us!

Rewind to just two quarters ago when the FOMC was on record saying they planned on raising rates three more times, spurring the Holiday season Hissy Fit … Things certainly have changed – 

This headline from Wall Street Journal Yesterday 20190606_184120000_iOS

afternoon!

But HOLD ON … this will make you scratch your head–

Robert Kaplan, Dallas Federal Reserve President – One and a half weeks ago during a lunch presentation! Take a moment to listen, it’s 1 minute and 14 seconds!

Different Audio types for differing browsers – same audio

 

20190528_170905120_iOS

Timely recording of the event…had no idea how pertinent it would be so quickly!

Feeling a bit like a reporter…. confused reporter, but reporter!!!

Have a Great Friday and Super Weekend!

John A. Kvale CFA, CFP

Founder of J.K. Financial, Inc.
A Dallas Texas based fee only
Financial Planning Total Wealth
Management firm.
jkfinancialinc
street-cents